According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of May 6, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 8233 yuan/ton. Compared with May 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7166 yuan/ton), the price increased by 1067 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.88%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that after the May Day holiday, the domestic Shandong n-butanol market has experienced a broad upward trend. The main driving force behind the concentrated upward movement of the n-butanol market comes from the supply side. During the holiday season, some regions in China shut down n-butanol plants, and after the holiday, the supply of n-butanol on site is tightening. The tight spot circulation supports the upward movement of the market center of gravity. On the first working day after the holiday, domestic butanol factories in Shandong region have raised the price of butanol by 300 to 500 yuan/ton. The overall market situation of n-butanol continued to rise in the following two days. As of May 6, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province is around 8200-8500 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is mild, and the supply side continues to provide some support to the market. The market is moving higher, and downstream new orders are trading cautiously. The n-butanol data analyst of the Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region will mostly remain stable and consolidate, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PVC spot market price fell in April. On April 1st, the average price of domestic PVC was 6096.67 yuan/ton, while on April 28th, the average price was 5925 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.82% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

PVC spot market prices fell in April. PVC spot market prices continued to fall in April. The price of raw material calcium carbide has decreased, and cost support is weak. In addition, PVC inventory is still high, resulting in a continuous downward trend in spot prices. Overall, the market demand was light this month and the trading situation was poor. Intermediaries are often cautious and cautious, while downstream processing enterprises mainly focus on obtaining goods on demand and taking them as needed, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5700-6280 yuan/ton.

In terms of international crude oil, on April 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.76 per barrel, an increase of $0.46 or 0.6%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $77.72 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 or 0.6%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory prices of power plants in the northwest region fluctuated and fell in April. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 3133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2983.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.79%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 25.10% year-on-year. Looking at the future market: In mid to early May, the calcium carbide market may slightly decline, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of upstream raw materials such as blue charcoal have stabilized at a low level, while the cost support for calcium carbide is average. Calcium carbide enterprises have a high operating rate and high inventory. The downstream PVC market continues to decline, and downstream demand is insufficient. Supply exceeds demand, and it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early May, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that the PVC spot market price continued to fall this month, and the upstream carbide price fell in shock, lacking support. The performance of futures has not been satisfactory, and the overall market confidence is insufficient. Traders and downstream players have a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with a focus on just needs. It is expected that the PVC spot market will be weak and consolidated in the short term.

In April, the domestic propane market continued to decline, with a broad decline. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average market price of propane in Shandong on April 1st was 5383 yuan/ton, and on April 26th it was 5088 yuan/ton. The monthly decline was 5.48%, a decrease of 21.43% compared to the same period last year.

As of April 27th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ April 27th

South China region/ 5050-5100 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5050-5200 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5050-5100 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5050-5250 yuan/ton

In April, the propane market remained weak and demand dragged on, continuing to decline. In early April of this month, the CP introduced a sharp drop, resulting in lower import prices and considerable profits for port traders. Crude oil prices have skyrocketed, with limited news support, weak demand, and low demand for combustion. The demand side is constrained, and the propane market is weak and declining. In the middle of the month, the propane market experienced a rebound, with downstream bargains entering the market and periodic restocking, pushing propane up. However, as prices rose to high levels, downstream purchasing enthusiasm decreased, and propane prices stabilized. As the end of the month approaches the holiday, downstream inventory demand and propane prices begin to strengthen.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in April, and the contract prices for propane and butane were significantly reduced, with propane at $555 per ton, a decrease of $165 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $545 per ton, a decrease of $195 per ton compared to last month.

Overall, with the May Day holiday approaching and downstream pre holiday stocking operations, demand is expected to increase, and it is expected to enter the short-term market in May. The Shandong propane market is slightly upward, but overall demand is still weak and difficult to improve, with a long-term bearish outlook.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market fell first and then rose in April 2023. The average price in the domestic market was 208110 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 207060 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 0.5%.

On April 25th, the base metal index was 1228 points, a decrease of 7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.01% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.28% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

On April 25th, the tin commodity index was 108.03, a decrease of 0.81 points from yesterday, a decrease of 42.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 152.05% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that tin prices have been mainly declining in the past six months, with significant declines occurring in May at -18.54% and June at -22.32%. After entering November, prices have been the main trend, with monthly increases exceeding 10%. After entering February, the market fell, with a monthly decline of 11.35%. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the recent rise in tin prices has been more or less negative.

In April 2023, the tin market fluctuated and declined in the first half of the month, while experienced significant fluctuations in the second half. In the first half of the month, the overall performance of the tin market was weak, and under the dual weak supply and demand pattern, downstream demand remained weak. Without actual demand support, it is expected that the tin market will maintain a weak overall operation. In the short term, the impact of domestic tin prices is still limited, and tin price fluctuations mainly follow international macro trends. Starting from April 15th, under the influence of a sudden news, tin prices rose first and then fell in the second half of the month, experiencing significant fluctuations. On April 15, the Central economic planning Committee of the Wa State of Myanmar issued the Notice on Suspension of All Mineral Resources Exploitation, which pointed out that in order to protect the Wa mineral resources, the mining and excavation of all mineral resources would be suspended until the conditions for mature mining were not met. Myanmar, as the largest importer of China, accounts for about 50% of the tin concentrate production in the Wa region mentioned in the notice. If tin mines in the Myanmar region stop production after August 1st, it will have a significant impact on domestic tin supply. Under the influence of this news, domestic Shanghai tin rose by the limit on the day of the 17th, and rose by another 6.93% on the night of the 17th. After the news of Wa State was digested by the market around the 18th, it was difficult for Shanghai Tin to have support, and prices continued to decline, falling continuously.

On the supply side: Currently, there is not much change in the overall domestic supply and demand, and the attitude of smelters towards high prices remains unchanged. The operating rate remains at a relatively stable level of around 60%. However, based on the import data of tin concentrate, in March 2023, the physical import volume of tin concentrate in China was 21927 tons, with a metal conversion volume of 5879.5 tons, an increase of 29.9% compared to the previous month. However, due to the end of dumping in Myanmar this year, the year-on-year data has decreased significantly, reaching 33.5%, indicating that the supply at the mining end is still tight. In terms of demand, it remains weak and shows little signs of recovery in the short term. Currently, the main application field of tin in China is the electronics industry. In the downstream consumption structure of refined tin metal, soldering tin accounts for about 44% of the market share, while tin plates account for about 16% of the market share. Therefore, the development of the electronics industry, including the new energy industry, has a significant impact on tin. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of integrated circuits from January to February 2023 was 44.3 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. According to Business News, due to the poor performance of electronic orders in the near future, the operating rate of solder companies has remained stable in the near future, and it is expected that there will be no significant changes in the future. In terms of inventory, LME inventory is currently at a low level, while domestic inventory is still relatively high. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices is still limited in the short term. In the future, it is still necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative import volume of tin ore sand and its concentrate in China in March 2023 was 21927 tons (equivalent to 6766.8 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 24.35% and a month on month increase of 27.67%. Among them, the import volume from Myanmar in March was 16787 tons (equivalent to 4196.6 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 22.22% and a month on month increase of 25.94%; Except for Myanmar, the total import volume from other countries in March was 5140 tons (equivalent to 2570.2 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 30.58% and a month on month increase of 33.68%.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in February 2023, global refined tin production was 28800 tons, consumption was 24900 tons, and supply surplus was 3900 tons. The global tin ore production in February 2023 was 24300 tons.

On April 15, the Central economic planning Committee of the Wa State of Myanmar issued the Notice on Suspension of All Mineral Resources Exploitation, which pointed out that in order to protect the Wa mineral resources, the mining and excavation of all mineral resources would be suspended until the conditions for mature mining were not met. After August 1, 2023, all exploration, mining, processing and other operations in the mine will cease. Myanmar is the first source country for China’s tin ore imports. According to customs data, in 2022, China imported 187300 tons of tin ore from Myanmar, accounting for approximately 77% of China’s total imports. The tin concentrate production in the Wa region accounts for about 50% of the total production in Myanmar. If the tin mines in Myanmar stop production after August 1st, it will have a significant impact on the domestic tin supply.

Domestic cobalt prices have stopped rising and falling this week

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 21, cobalt prices were 271600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to April 14, when cobalt prices were 272400 yuan/ton; The cobalt price decreased by 1.77% compared to 276500 yuan/ton on April 19th; The cobalt price decreased by 6.57% compared to 290700 yuan/ton on April 1st. International cobalt prices have plummeted, with cobalt prices briefly rising this week and then falling back.

International cobalt prices plummet

From the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that MB cobalt price has significantly decreased this week, and international cobalt prices have stopped rising and falling, which is negative for the domestic cobalt market. Domestic cobalt prices have stopped rising and falling.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the international cobalt price has stopped rising and plummeted this week, causing a bearish situation in the international cobalt market. The supply and demand of the cobalt market are relatively balanced, and the downward pressure on the domestic cobalt market has increased. This week, the cobalt price has stopped rising and falling. In the future, the supply and demand of cobalt in the market are relatively balanced, and there are still bearish trends in the cobalt market. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 24th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last Thursday (April 20th).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily. In the near future, the raw material sulfuric acid market is weak, and the raw material methanol market is strong. The change in cost has little impact. The downstream supply is mainly on demand before the festival. The market negotiation atmosphere is mild, the transaction is orderly, and the price center of formic acid market is stable.

Upstream product: Upstream sulfuric acid. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for sulfuric acid on April 21 was 235.00, a decrease of 2.08% compared to April 1 (240.00); Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on April 21, the reference price for methanol was 2570.00, an increase of 0.33% compared to April 1 (2561.67).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that at present, raw material prices are fluctuating, and the cost side impact is limited. Downstream goods are prepared in an orderly manner according to demand before holidays, and the market atmosphere is still acceptable. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese market rose slightly this week (from April 14 to April 21), and the market atmosphere was still weak. The spot market price in East China was 16300 yuan/ton last weekend and 16325 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.15%.

Manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market continued to be depressed. Enquiries and transactions on the market improved slightly, but most of them were sporadic transactions. The transaction price did not perform well, and the price continued to decline. The lower price of the downstream silicon manganese market led to the pressure operation of the raw material end market. The manufacturers’ weak acceptance of high prices led to the gradual bottoming of the transaction price. As of April 21, Tianjin Port has experienced a decrease of 0.5 to 1 yuan/ton, with mainstream transactions of semi carbonate at 32.5 yuan/ton, around 38 yuan/ton in Gabon, 42 to 43 yuan/ton in Australia, and a certain degree of decline in South African high-speed rail. The mainstream prices of Mn28-30 grade are concentrated at 31 yuan/ton, while those of Mn33 and above are at 32.5 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above, it can be seen that prices have slightly decreased since December 2022, and have continued to decline after temporarily stabilizing in January. As of now, electrolytic manganese has been declining for four consecutive months, and has slightly rebounded this week.

The actual transaction volume in the electrolytic manganese market this week is still weak, and the overall market is still operating in a weak trend. Prices in some regions have slightly increased, but the mainstream market remains at 14700-14900 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week. This week, the market is bullish, with some prices slightly increasing, but the impact on the market is limited. Downstream demand is generally low, and the game mentality between supply and demand is strong. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. This week, the performance of steel bidding was relatively stable, and with the resumption of bidding by POSCO in South Korea, it has boosted the mentality of the domestic market to some extent. Recently, there has been a slight upward trend in prices among smelters, and the bearish atmosphere in the market has gradually decreased. However, actual transactions are still limited, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in trading. The market is relatively quiet, with FOB prices ranging from $2100 to $2140 per ton, which is unchanged from last week. In the future, it is expected that the weak and stable operation will be the main focus, and more guidance on steel bidding prices will be awaited.

This week, the silicon manganese market experienced a narrow range of volatility, with lower prices at the beginning of the week and a recovery with futures rebounding in the middle of the week. Spot prices showed a slight increase, but the upward momentum was insufficient. Over the weekend, prices fell back. The bidding for steel mills is coming to an end, and the market trading atmosphere is gradually turning to a light one. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (with the specification of FeMN68Si18) was around 6900-7050 yuan/ton on April 21, with an average market price of 6975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the beginning of the week.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in March 2023 was approximately 33451 tons. In March 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was approximately 5500 tons.

The National Development and Reform Commission organized a meeting to promote clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, in order to improve the level of green and clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry, the Environmental Resources Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a meeting on promoting clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry on the afternoon of April 21, to sort out the current situation and existing problems of clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry, and to study and promote the next steps of work. Representatives from the Solid State Department of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, relevant research institutions, and industry associations attended the meeting.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has been fluctuating and declining recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8600.00 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8483.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36%. The price has decreased by 11.17% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the styrene market price has continued to decline. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent price of styrene has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the price has continued to decline this week. The supply of styrene has continued to rise, inventory has risen, international crude oil prices are fluctuating and unstable, pure benzene market is not volatile, cost support is poor, and spot demand for styrene is poor, leading to a decline in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On April 10th, the price of pure benzene was between 7403-7600 yuan/ton (average price of 7501 yuan/ton). On Friday (April 14th), the price of pure benzene was between 7403-7750 yuan/ton (average price of 7576 yuan/ton), an increase of 0.67% compared to last week and a decrease of 9.59% compared to the same period last year. The port continues to go to the warehouse, and downstream demand for raw materials is relatively stable, supporting price increases. The inventory of Shandong Refinery is low, and the quoted price is high, causing the focus of transaction to shift upwards.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream markets of styrene have seen varying fluctuations. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9516 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price of PS was 9566 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.53% and a decrease of 9.89% compared to the same period last year. Market inquiries have increased, but actual transactions are average. The market urgently needs good news support, with a focus on downstream transactions. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 8850 and 10400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 9250 and 10700 yuan/ton.

The average price of EPS ordinary materials this week is 9640 yuan/ton, and the market is stable. The supply of goods in the yard is still relatively loose, and the downstream production consumption inventory is dominated. The market price reference of EPS common materials in South China is about 9600-9700 yuan/ton (tax included).

Recently, the domestic ABS market has remained stable, with an average price of 11600.00 yuan/ton on April 17th. Recently, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials has been weak, which has weakened the support for ABS cost side. The high starting point of petrochemical plants has increased, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Poor demand side support, overall maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern. Stacked with high inventory of midstream channel merchants, merchants’ mentality has weakened, and pricing operations are cautious. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.

The recent crude oil market has room for volatility and upward momentum, with good support for styrene. The supply of styrene has slowed down, and it is expected that the short-term volatility and upward trend in the styrene market will be the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 14th, the average price for acrylic acid in the East China region was 6775.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

The acrylic acid market has been operating steadily this week. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the overhaul of some factories at the supply end has been completed, the industry operation rate has increased, the downstream procurement is mainly just in demand, the market transaction atmosphere is general, and the focus of acrylic acid negotiation is stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the support for the Shandong propylene market has become stronger recently, and the price has continued to rise slightly. On the 14th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong market was 7200-7300 yuan/ton.

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost support has increased, operating rates have increased, market transactions are on demand, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to bulk data monitoring by Business Society, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fell first and then rose in March. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8558.33 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8458.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17%. The price has decreased by 9.54% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

In March, the styrene market price fell first and then rose. From the above figure, it can be seen that the price of styrene has increased and decreased in the past month. The reason for the decline in the middle of the first half of the year was due to the decline in crude oil prices, poor cost support, the gradual restart of styrene maintenance equipment, abundant inventory supply at styrene loading ports, and the main decline in the styrene market. The main reason for the increase in late October is the continued rise in international oil prices, strong cost support, a decrease in styrene port inventory, and acceptable spot transactions. In summary, the styrene market in March was mainly affected by slight fluctuations in costs and inventory.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene fluctuated and increased in March, with little price fluctuation. On March 1st, the price was between 7000-7200 yuan/ton (average price 7100 yuan/ton); On March 31st, the price was between 7200 to 7300 yuan/ton (average price 7235 yuan/ton). In March, the market price of pure benzene rose in a narrow range, and there were few spot transactions, mainly in the month. The stable prices of the main units have boosted the market, but there is insufficient room for price decline. Some downstream and traders in Shandong are bullish in the future, and they are buying Shandong’s goods normally, with a fair transaction.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in March. According to monitoring data from Business Society, the average price of PS brand 525 at the beginning of March was 9433 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS brand 525 was 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88% and a decrease of 12.75% compared to the same period last year. On the supply side, the overall supply of domestic PS is relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of petrochemical plants is expected to be high. The pressure on the PS supply side still exists. Demand side: Due to limited downstream demand improvement, the supply and demand side gradually tends to be loose, and the overall market inquiry atmosphere is average, while the trading atmosphere on the market is flat.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of EPS ordinary materials did not change much in March. The average quotation for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the month was 9562 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 9550 yuan/ton. At present, the digestion of market supply is slow, and the pressure on merchants to ship is not decreasing, with price reduction sales being the main focus. The wait-and-see atmosphere in the EPS market remains unchanged, and overall transaction performance is poor. It is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly follow a narrow range consolidation trend.

In March, the domestic ABS market weakened and spot prices fluctuated and fell. Recently, the overall trend of the upstream three materials of ABS has been weak, with average support for the cost side of ABS. The high starting point of petrochemical plants has increased, and the market supply continues to be abundant. The demand side support is poor, the mentality of merchants is weak, and the operation tends to yield profits and take orders. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.

Recently, there is room for a decrease in styrene port inventory and an increase in downstream operating rates. However, the high inventory of downstream finished products has limited support for styrene, and the styrene market is likely to be greatly affected by crude oil. Therefore, the business community expects a slight increase in the styrene market in the short term.