According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market fell sharply in May. The price of hydrochloric acid decreased from 207.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 175.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton, or 15.46%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 45.31% year-on-year.

On May 29th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 46.05, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 156.12% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has experienced a significant decline this month, with manufacturers having low inventory.

Cost side: Low price consolidation of liquid chlorine

From a cost perspective, the liquid chlorine market stabilized at a low level in May. The price of liquid chlorine is around 10 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with insufficient cost support.

Demand side: Downstream demand is weak

In May, the market situation of ammonium chloride fell sharply, and the market price of ammonium chloride fell from 865.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 627.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 27.46%, and the price at the end of the month fell 58.92% year on year. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly, with the market price falling from 1800.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1778.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 1.18%, and the price at the end of the month fell 20.68% year on year. The downstream market situation has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weak enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early June, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets have significantly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience slight fluctuations and declines.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 29th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.98% compared to May 1st.

The melamine market slightly declined in May. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material urea fluctuated and fell, the cost support weakened, some maintenance devices resumed production, the industry’s operating rate increased, and downstream demand did not significantly improve. Inquiry procurement was mainly based on demand, and the market atmosphere was weak. The melamine market was operating in a weak position. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material urea was weak, with insufficient cost support. The utilization rate of melamine production capacity decreased, and the market supply decreased. However, downstream demand was poor, and there was still a supply-demand contradiction in the market. The mentality of the industry was insufficient, with replenishment being the main demand. Enterprise sales were under pressure, and the focus of negotiations in the melamine market slightly declined.

Upstream urea, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of urea on May 26th was 2447.50, a decrease of 6.36% compared to May 1st (2613.75).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that currently, the price of raw material urea has decreased, and cost support is weak. The supply side is gradually increasing, but the follow-up on the demand side is limited. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may become weak and operate, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market has fluctuated after a decline this week, with overall reductions in various wire drawing brands. As of May 26th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7057.14 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -8.43% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the propylene market in Shandong has continued to decline recently. Due to the sluggish demand market and a significant increase in upstream inventory, factories have continued to reduce prices and inventory to stimulate sales. However, the demand increase is limited, and downstream procurement is cautious, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that there will be no significant improvement in downstream demand in the short term, and the propylene market will maintain a weak trend.

The rapid decline in propylene prices has weakened the cost support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained at around 76% this week. Recently, there have been too many maintenance devices, but the overall supply of goods has remained stable. There is sufficient supply of goods on the site, with a narrow decrease in inventory pressure, and there is not significant support from the supply side for spot prices. In addition, the production of multiple new devices has been delayed, and there may be an expected increase in concentrated supply next month. In terms of demand, the downstream plastic weaving production of the main force has stabilized, and the operating rate of film materials enterprises continues to recover. The improvement of end enterprise stock situation is limited, and procurement is mainly focused on maintaining production.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 26th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has declined. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7187.50 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of -6.66% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 18.63% compared to the same period last year. This week, the low load of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber material, continued horizontally, with an overall operating rate of around 30%. The current weak demand for fiber materials on the site is dragging down the digestion speed of non-woven end products, and the enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP are lagging behind. In addition, the negative macro impact on demand elasticity predicts that fiber materials may continue to be affected by supply-demand conflicts and maintain a weak and stable pattern in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, this week’s melt blown PP market continued to be weak and consolidated. As of May 26th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is about 8175 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.91%, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.58%. At present, there have been sporadic rebounds in domestic health incidents, but local news in society is unable to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. The overseas demand has also not shown significant support, and traders have given up on orders, indicating that the melt blown material market may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has recently declined. The raw material propylene market has turned down, and the support from the cost side for the market is not good. Terminal enterprises tend to maintain production while receiving goods, with weak demand release. The decrease in market orders, coupled with news of new device production in the future, is expected to maintain a weak PP market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI price trend in East China continues to decline. On May 24th, the average market price in East China was 17500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.89% compared to the price of 19000 yuan/ton on May 18th, and a decrease of 10.26% compared to the beginning of the month.

The domestic TDI market is operating in a weak state, with low downstream demand and average purchasing enthusiasm. There are few new orders traded on the market, and there are expectations of an increase in supply side production capacity. The trade market is bearish, and in order to stimulate shipment, TDI offers continue to decline. As of the 24th, the price range for domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is around 17000-17300 yuan/ton, while the price range for Shanghai goods is 17300-17500 yuan/ton, with real order negotiations being the main focus.

Upstream toluene market consolidation operation, as of May 24th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 7070 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.71% compared to the price of 7020 yuan/ton on May 18th. The international crude oil price has risen, and the upstream support for toluene is good, but the downstream realization is weak. The actual order negotiation is average, and manufacturers adjust their prices based on their own shipment situation within the week. The trend of toluene fluctuates slightly.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the Business Agency believe that the increase in supplier capacity has an impact on the TDI market. The bearish atmosphere in the TDI market is obvious, and the trade market mentality is pessimistic. Holders are stimulating shipments, and prices are falling. Terminal downstream trading is limited, and demand procurement is insufficient. The market lacks positive news. In the short term, TDI will continue to consolidate its weakness, and we will follow up on specific details.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 22, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8900.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last Wednesday (May 17).

The recent market situation for epichlorohydrin has been sluggish. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly, while the price of glycerol has temporarily stabilized, with some support for the cost side. Enterprises mainly focus on delivering orders, while downstream inquiries and purchases are generally enthusiastic. They mainly restock small orders on dips, with a cautious wait-and-see mentality. The negotiation atmosphere in the epichlorohydrin market is deadlocked.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on May 19th was 6933.25, a decrease of 1.69% compared to May 1st (7052.60).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on May 19th was 14433.33, a decrease of 1.37% compared to May 1st (14633.33).

Analysts from Business Society’s epichlorohydrin believe that there is some support on the cost side, but the supply and demand side is generally supported. There is still pressure on holders to ship, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12833 yuan/ton on May 15 and 12800 yuan/ton on May 19. Caprolactam prices fell 0.26% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices fell slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. At present, the supply and demand of caprolactam market is balanced, and the downstream demand is weak. Most of the products are purchased at low prices, and they are mainly cautious.

This week, the price of pure benzene decreased. On May 15th, the price of pure benzene was between 6703-7120 yuan/ton (average price 6911 yuan/ton). On Friday (May 19th), the price of pure benzene was between 6603-6880 yuan/ton (average price 6741/ton), a decrease of 5.18% compared to last week and a decrease of 25.73% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene dropped to 6800 yuan/ton, while prices in Shandong and Hebei regions also fell simultaneously.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has weakened recently, and the cost side support is general. The terminal demand is poor, and the market is relatively balanced between supply and demand. It is expected that caprolactam market price will be weak in the short term, which will be dominated by consolidation operation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid fell in the first half of May. As of the 16th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10114.29 yuan/ton. The price in the first half of May fell by 1.53%, 13.77% year-on-year.

Supply side: In the first half of the month, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid has declined. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions in China is 10000-10400 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices are still in parking, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is weak. As a result, the market trend of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined.

Raw material side: The price trend of raw material fluorite in the first half of the month has increased. As of the 16th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3137.5 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.03% in the first half of the month. Recently, the operating rate of domestic fluorite enterprises is relatively low, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work is still facing many difficulties. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and there is a serious shortage of fluorite mining operations. In addition, in some areas, non-metallic mining accidents have occurred, and the requirements of environmental protection and emergency management departments have become stricter. The difficulty of mining operations has increased, and domestic fluorite raw materials are tightening. The operation of fluorite flotation devices is limited, and the price of fluorite has slightly increased. The price of raw materials is high, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are under heavy pressure.

On the demand side: The market trend of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. Recently, there has been sufficient refrigerant supply, which has led to a sluggish domestic refrigerant R22 price market. Refrigerant R22 manufacturers have low loads and inventory is within a reasonable range, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low loads, and R134a prices remain low. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main focus, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the actual transaction situation is light. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000-25500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. Demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant. Overall, the refrigerant market is poor, with operating rates of less than 30%, and procurement of upstream raw materials is scarce, The hydrofluoric acid market has declined due to demand drag.

Future forecast: The market trend of raw material fluorite is temporarily stable in the short term, but the commencement of downstream refrigerant industry remains sluggish. The purchase of hydrofluoric acid is light, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal. Affected by this, hydrofluoric acid production enterprises are suffering from serious losses. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst from Business Society, believes that the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable in the short term.

This week, the lead market (5.5-5.12) fluctuated and declined, with the average price in the domestic market at 15230 yuan/ton over the weekend and 15155 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.49%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated weakly after the holiday.

In terms of the futures market, there was little volatility this week. LME inventory remained stable throughout the week, and the overall trend of non-ferrous metals was weak. On Thursday, macroeconomic data fell short of expectations and poor China’s social finance data affected market sentiment. The overall decline of non-ferrous metals was accompanied by a decline in Shanghai lead, but due to its good resilience, the decline was relatively small compared to other metals. In terms of fundamentals, battery companies have performed significantly during the off-season, with overall weak downstream demand. In terms of supply, with the gradual resumption of production by maintenance enterprises in the near future, the supply is more sufficient than in the early stage, and social inventory has also increased to a certain extent. Overall, there has been a slight increase in market supply after the holiday, while demand remains weak. In the future, the business community predicts that the trend will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited market volatility in the off-season.

On May 12, 2023, London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory of 32900 tons remained unchanged (in tons)

On May 14th, the base metal index stood at 1172 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.48% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 82.55% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices in the 19th week of 2023 (5.8-5.12), with dysprosium oxide (3.93%), dysprosium iron alloy (3.47%), and metal praseodymium (2.63%) among the top 3 commodities. There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decrease, and 2 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were nickel (-8.00%), silver (-5.31%), and copper (-3.84%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.54%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6 to May 12, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was lowered. Last weekend, it was 7200 yuan/ton, and this weekend, it was 7066.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85%.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures continued to decline on May 11th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.87 per barrel, a decrease of $1.69 or 2.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.98 per barrel, a decrease of $1.43 or 1.9%. The debt ceiling impasse in the United States has intensified the fear of economic recession, and the increase in the number of Americans who apply for unemployment benefits roughly has put pressure on the oil market.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 250 yuan/ton on May 8, 2023, and is currently at 7050 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7170 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7153 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has experienced a decline in recent times, with a continuous decline for four weeks.

In terms of industrial chain: This week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell, and overall declined. The downstream styrene market continued to decline, dragging down the external market of pure benzene. The pure benzene market overall declined this week, and there were rumors that Sinopec’s listed price had a downward expectation, which once again affected the market mentality. After the hydrogenation benzene festival, it followed the overall downward trend of pure benzene, and the current factory price in the main production area is around 6900-7050 yuan/ton.

This week, the hydrogenation benzene market follows the trend of pure benzene and is generally weak. As of the 12th, the ex factory price in the main production area was between 6900 and 7050 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price in East China was between 6950 and 7000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the market has been operating weakly recently, with the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises slightly declining, and some manufacturers have maintenance plans. In terms of demand, downstream procurement is just needed, and the overall demand has not changed much. Downstream styrene market has declined, indicating a willingness to hold down the price of pure benzene, putting pressure on the industry chain market. Overall, the recent decline in crude oil has led to a narrow decline in the price of pure benzene due to the drag. In the future, the business community expects the industrial chain to decline, and the price of hydrogenated benzene will be mainly weak in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of May 11, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton or 2.80% compared to May 7, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate at 4766 yuan/ton).

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.7-5.11), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a weak downward trend. This week, the trading atmosphere in the dimethyl carbonate market was flat, and downstream demand was insufficient to support a stable market. Some dimethyl carbonate manufacturers lowered prices to stimulate shipments, with a reduction of about 200 yuan/ton. As of May 11, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4400-4800 yuan/ton. At present, the new orders for dimethyl carbonate are relatively light, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall weak operation of dimethyl carbonate in the market is still evident in downstream demand, and the overall supply and demand transmission is relatively slow. Business Society’s dimethyl carbonate data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.