According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region significantly decreased in June, with the price of calcium carbide dropping from 3150.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.94%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 24.35% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region decreased slightly in June. Overall, the price of calcium carbide decreased slightly in June.

Cost side: The price of blue charcoal has significantly decreased

In June, the price of upstream calcium carbide blue charcoal significantly decreased, with a price of around 980 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In the short term, the price of blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, and there is insufficient support for the cost of calcium carbide.

On the demand side: PVC market prices fluctuate and decline

In June, the downstream PVC market prices of calcium carbide continued to fluctuate and decline. The market price of PVC dropped from 5534.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5476.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.04%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 26.71% year-on-year. The PVC Spot market continued to be weak, with light trading, large inventory pressure and poor performance of futures. The overall market atmosphere is relatively empty, with insufficient confidence on the market.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early July, the calcium carbide market may slightly decline, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of upstream raw materials, such as blue charcoal, have stabilized at a low level, and there is insufficient support for the cost of calcium carbide. Some calcium carbide enterprises have started to resume production, and the circulation of goods has increased. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is weak. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early July, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 26th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 6600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% compared to last Monday (June 19th).

Recently (6.19-6.26), the melamine market has been mainly stable, and some companies have lowered their prices. Recently, the raw material urea market has experienced a narrow range of fluctuations, with average cost support. Enterprises mainly execute preliminary orders, while downstream inquiries and purchases are just in demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

Upstream urea, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market temporarily stabilized on June 25th. On June 23rd, the reference price of urea was 2239.38, a decrease of 6.79% compared to June 1st (2402.50).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply and demand have little impact on the market. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may consolidate and operate on a wait-and-see basis, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in raw material urea prices.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 9657.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 17.03%.

Supply side: The price trend of hydrofluoric acid has been weak and stable this week. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed by various regions in China is 9500-9900 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is weak. As a result, the market trend of hydrofluoric acid remains weak.

Raw material side: The market price of raw material fluorite has slightly decreased, with the average domestic fluorite price as of the 25th at 3117.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% this week. Recently, the operating rate of domestic fluorite enterprises has slightly increased, and the spot supply of fluorite has increased. On the one hand, there is still tension in upstream mining, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains challenging. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to start fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has restricted fluorite enterprises from starting operations. On the other hand, the operating load of domestic hydrofluoric acid is around 60%, and there is still a rigid demand for fluorite procurement. Some hydrofluoric acid enterprises have reduced production, and the demand for raw material fluorite has weakened, leading to a slight decline in fluorite prices.

On the demand side: The market for refrigerant products downstream of the terminal has slightly declined, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. Recently, there has been sufficient refrigerant supply, driving the domestic refrigerant R22 price to remain low. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and the domestic market performance is weak. Inventory digestion is the main focus, and procurement demand has not yet been followed up. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is declining. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for consumer orders has not yet warmed up. Market confidence is insufficient. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 23000-25000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. The demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, The operating rate is less than 30%, coupled with a decline in the export market, resulting in weak domestic and external demand. The refrigerant market has slightly declined, while upstream raw material procurement is scarce, and the fluorite market price has slightly declined.

Future Market Forecast: In the short term, the raw material fluorite market will fluctuate, and the downstream refrigerant industry will continue to operate in a sluggish manner. The refrigerant market will slightly decline, and the purchase of hydrofluoric acid will be light. In addition, the normal supply of hydrofluoric acid in stock will affect the production of hydrofluoric acid enterprises, which will cause serious losses. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the short term.

Market analysis for this week

According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of the 19th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 21000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.08% on a weekly basis. This week, the market price of magnesium ingots continued to decline. Due to weak market demand, coupled with weak prices of raw materials such as ferrosilicon and coal, magnesium prices have slightly declined.

In terms of supply and demand

At present, the price of magnesium in factories is approaching the 20000 yuan mark, and many magnesium factories have gradually reduced their profits. Production remains low, and there is a strong willingness to stabilize prices. Some large factories have chosen to stop quoting. In terms of demand, the market is severely undervalued and low-priced transactions frequently occur. Given the current gap between the prices of magnesium ingots and those of both the purchaser and supplier, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with supply and demand being the main bottleneck.

In terms of raw materials

The weak situation of ferrosilicon Spot market was sorted out and operated, and the market quotation in Ningxia was around 6800-6700 yuan/ton. This week, the national orchid charcoal market remained stable after a decline. At the beginning of the week, mainstream calcium carbide enterprises continued to lower the purchasing price of orchid charcoal by 50-70 yuan/ton. Since June 13th, the reduction has been implemented in the market, and the price of orchid charcoal has accumulated a drop of 380-400 yuan/ton in five rounds of price reduction.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the magnesium ingot market is not ideal, and demand continues to be weak, with magnesium prices operating under pressure. However, as the price of blue charcoal stabilizes, the production cost of magnesium ingots is expected to remain stable, and the willingness of manufacturers to support prices increases. It is expected that magnesium ingots will operate steadily in the short term, with a weak trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market continues to rise. From June 12th to 16th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 16620 yuan/ton to 16880 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.56%, a month on month increase of 11.64%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.15%. Multiple production enterprises have successively entered the maintenance of their devices, resulting in a tight supply of goods in the market. Traders have taken advantage of this opportunity to increase their quotations, and there is also incremental support in the terminal export market. The market atmosphere continues to be warm.

On the supply side, the operating rate of the equipment is low, and the expected inventory of supply is shrinking.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has seen a significant decline in the domestic pure benzene market price. Some production enterprises have increased production and increased inventory pressure. Crude oil continues to be weak, macro bearish sentiment still exists, and the upward momentum of prices is insufficient. The domestic pure benzene market continues to be dominated by weak consolidation. On June 16th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society was 6200.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.49% compared to the beginning of this month (6560.50 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: The trend of domestic aniline is stable. Traders and downstream users have average buying interest and weak demand. On June 16th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 10912.50 yuan/ton, which was the same as at the beginning of this month. Aggregate MDI cost side bearish factors.

On the demand side, taking into account current buying gas, downstream buyers are still buying more, prices continue to rise, and the willingness to consume inventory is strengthening. The short-term aggregate MDI demand is relatively favorable.

In the future market forecast, short-term traders are facing a tight supply of goods, which still provides some support to the market. Analysts from Business Society Aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market will continue to strengthen.

This week (6.5-6.12), the Nitrile rubber market continued to be weak. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 12, the price of Nitrile rubber was 14525 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from 14700 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw material butadiene and acrylonitrile fell, and the cost of Nitrile rubber declined; Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are still relatively flat. This week, the factory prices of some Nitrile rubber enterprises were slightly lowered. At present, the mainstream market of Lanhua nitrile 3305 in East China is 13500~13800 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Nandi Nitrile 1052 is 16000-16200 yuan/ton; Sibur Nitrile 3365 mainstream reported 13800~14000 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported 14000-14200 yuan/ton.

This week (6.5-6.12), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile fell, and the cost of Nitrile rubber declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 12th, the price of butadiene was 6317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from last Monday’s 6378 yuan/ton; As of June 12th, the price of acrylonitrile decreased by 1.81% from last Monday’s 8287 yuan/ton at 8137 yuan/ton.

The Nitrile rubber plant operates normally. At present, the supply side of Nitrile rubber is basically stable.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that at present, the supply of Nitrile rubber is stable, and the downstream inquiry increase is not obvious. It is expected that in the short term, Nitrile rubber industry chain is in a weak situation, and Nitrile rubber prices will be adjusted at a low level; In the later period, the maintenance of Nitrile rubber plant of Lanzhou Petrochemical will reduce the supply of Nitrile rubber market slightly, and then the market of some Nitrile rubber brands will rise slightly; In the medium and long term, the rising market of Nitrile rubber still needs the recovery of downstream demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic market price of Ammonium nitrate rose slightly this week. As of the weekend, the market price of Ammonium nitrate was 4060 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the beginning of the week’s price of 4030 yuan/ton, down 12.31% year on year.

The price of Ammonium nitrate in the domestic market rose slightly this week. The domestic Ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. The supply of goods on the site was normal recently. The goods on the site were generally shipped. The manufacturer’s inventory was not high. The price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal fluctuated and rose. The price of nitric acid declined slightly, and the price of Ammonium nitrate rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of Ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizer is normal, and the domestic downstream civil explosive industry purchase is general. The domestic Ammonium nitrate manufacturers do not start high, and the recent price increase of Ammonium nitrate is not large. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5200-5300 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3900-4100 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 4000-4100 yuan/ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China has declined. As of the 9th, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2016.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% compared to the price of 2033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2000 to 2200 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton. At present, the pressure on the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market remains unabated, the demand continues to be weak, the cost goes down, the supply of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, the market is dominated by orders, the market turnover is average, the insiders are mainly wait-and-see, the price of the nitric acid market drops, and the price increase of Ammonium nitrate market is limited.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia has slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 3000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.69% compared to the price of 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Recently, the operation of liquid ammonia manufacturers’ devices has been stable, and the inventory of manufacturers is still acceptable. There has been little change in the amount of ammonia released in China, and some merchants have seen a slight increase in prices. The overall liquid ammonia market situation has not changed much. The price rise of upstream liquid ammonia has brought some positive support to the Ammonium nitrate market, and the price of Ammonium nitrate market has risen slightly.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is mainly volatile, the price trend of nitric acid is declining, and the spot supply of Ammonium nitrate is relatively normal. The Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the price trend of Ammonium nitrate market is mainly stable in the later period.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. The average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China this week is 3150.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 27.86% year-on-year. On June 4th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 82.53, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 48.73% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Weakened upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream semicarbon market declined slightly, while the downstream PVC market price fluctuated slightly. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal was around 1200 yuan/ton, and the price has dropped by about 100 yuan/ton. This week, the PVC market price increased from 5546.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5548.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.04%. Weekend prices fell by 34.46% year-on-year. The PVC market price has fluctuated slightly and increased, with downstream customers having average enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In mid to late June, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, cost support has weakened, and the downstream PVC market has stabilized at a low level, resulting in average downstream demand. In mid to late June, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the auction price of the high-temperature coal tar market continued to rise sharply this week. From May 26 to June 2, the domestic coal tar price rose from 3960 yuan/ton to 4372.5 yuan/ton, and the price rose 10.42% in the cycle.

This week, the auction price of coal tar in Shandong continued to rise. This week, the price in Shandong increased by 400 yuan/ton, to 4360 yuan/ton. This week, the supply of coal tar was slightly tight, and the coking enterprises had a strong attitude of supporting prices. The auction price of coal tar continued to rise. In terms of downstream demand, the prices of deeply processed goods continued to rise this week, leading to a rebound in demand for raw materials. Under the support of both supply and demand, tar prices will continue to rise this week.

On June 2, the auction of coal tar in the main domestic production area of the week ended basically. Among them, the Shanxi region received 4380-4420 yuan/ton, an increase of 380-450 yuan/ton compared to the previous auction price. In the Shandong region, it is at 4360 yuan/ton, an increase of about 400 yuan/ton. In the Hebei region, it is 4350 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton. In the Jiangsu region, it increased by 400 yuan/ton at 4360 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above monthly coal tar K column chart, it can be seen that since November 2022, the coal tar market has declined for three consecutive months. The price recovered in February, fell sharply in March, and the decline again expanded in April. The weekly K column chart shows that the coal tar market rose sharply for three consecutive weeks after falling for six consecutive weeks.

This week, the coking enterprises started construction at about 74%, basically flat compared with last week. The supply of coal tar is slightly tight, and the coking enterprises are reluctant to sell at high prices. The market prices of coal tar pitch, carbon black and other major commodities in the downstream deep processing industry continued to rise this week, boosting the mentality of the tar market. The tar price continued to rise this week under the support of the common good of supply and demand. Future market: The coal tar market has risen for three consecutive weeks, with an overall increase of 1400-1600 yuan/ton. At present, the market has a cautious attitude. With the temporary slowdown in demand for terminal commodity restocking this week, downstream sentiment towards high priced raw materials is gradually rising. On the whole, the business community predicted that the coal tar market would be stable and strong in the future, but there was limited room for growth. The market was weak in the downstream resistance. The future trend still needs to pay specific attention to the trend of major downstream commodities such as coal tar and asphalt.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of acetic acid in May first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of acetic acid was 3233.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 3250.00 yuan/ton. The overall increase during the month was 0.52%, and the price decreased by 39.02% year-on-year.

As of the end of the month, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions of China in May are as follows:

Region/ May 4th/ May 17th/ May 31st

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3025 yuan/ton/ 3025 yuan/ton/ 2950 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3025 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton

In early May, the price trend of acetic acid continued to rise, with no pressure on enterprise inventory, stable follow-up of downstream demand, smooth shipment of manufacturers, and a continuous increase in the focus of acetic acid transactions; In the middle of the day, the market trading performance was light, with downstream buyers mainly focusing on demand, while acetic acid manufacturers remained stable in their shipments, and the market situation remained stable on the sidelines; In the latter half of the year, after the price of acetic acid was lowered, it operated smoothly. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement was average, and market transactions were weak. The acetic acid market remained stable and weak.

The raw material methanol market has weakened and decreased, with an average domestic market price of 2160.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 10.87% compared to the price of 2423.33 yuan/ton on May 1st. The price of raw coal has declined, the cost side lacks positive support, and the social inventory of methanol in the supply side continues to accumulate. Coupled with the influx of imported goods, market confidence is insufficient, downstream purchasing and follow-up are insufficient, supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price of methanol has fallen again and again.

The downstream acetic anhydride market fluctuated and declined in May, with a price of 5387.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.15% compared to the price of 5450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material acetic acid first rose and then fell, and the overall price did not change much. The cost support for acetic anhydride was limited, the production of acetic anhydride was low, the market supply was insufficient, downstream demand was average, and the trading atmosphere on the market was light. Enterprises followed the market, and the acetic anhydride market stabilized and operated.

Analysts from the Business Society believe that acetic acid companies have no inventory pressure, manufacturers are actively shipping, and downstream demand side mentality is wait-and-see, continuing to follow up on just what is needed. The market lacks effective benefits, and the rise of acetic acid is weak. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will consolidate and operate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to changes in supplier equipment.