1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and increased this week. As of July 14th, the spot nickel quotation was 173366.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 6 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight rebound in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro level, as China’s RMB exchange rate continues to rise, the highly anticipated Federal Reserve inflation data has been released. The data shows that the year-on-year increase in US CPI has continued to decline from 4% in May to 3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. It has been on a downward trend for the 12th consecutive month. Affected by the cooling of US inflation, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates have weakened, the US dollar continues to decline, and the metal market has reversed and turned the tide to welcome a long-awaited surge.

In terms of supply: The newly added production capacity of domestic electrolytic nickel production has been put into operation and increased, with a month on month increase in refined nickel production in June. Two new nickel production lines were added in Indonesia in June, and Russian nickel imports continued to arrive, impacting the domestic market. Nickel iron is facing a surplus situation, and supply surplus still puts pressure on nickel prices.

In terms of demand: The demand for pure nickel is differentiated in the terminal field. Maintain an overall attitude of buying stocks on dips and avoiding high prices. In terms of stainless steel, there has been a slight reduction in production due to the 300 series; Ternary precursor orders recovered, new energy and alloy demand improved, and the price of battery grade Nickel(II) sulfate rose slightly.

In summary, the global nickel explicit inventory is still at a historical low level, which is beneficial for nickel prices. The domestic supply side has increased, while traditional demand has weakened while new energy has increased. In the context of macroeconomic recovery both domestically and internationally, it is expected that the short-term volatility of nickel prices will be mainly strong.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.64% compared to the price of 7625 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.63%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

Recently, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable, and the supply of goods has been normal. The recent rise in the price trend of industrial naphthalene has led to an increase in the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, which has affected the domestic market for neighboring phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: The price trend of ortho benzene market is temporarily stable

This week, the price trend of domestic ortho benzene was temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the price of ortho benzene was 8100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 8100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the price of crude oil rose this week, the cost of O-Xylene was significantly supported, the price of ortho benzene in the external market changed little, and the price trend of ortho benzene market was stable. The phthalic anhydride market rose slightly affected by this.

On the demand side: DOP market trend is rising, with on-demand procurement being the main focus

The price trend of downstream DOP market has increased, with an increase of 1.10% this week. Currently, the domestic DOP price is 9875 yuan/ton, and domestic DOP enterprises are operating steadily. Demand based procurement is the main demand for phthalic anhydride, with the mainstream price of DOP ranging from 9900 to 9900 yuan/ton. The upward trend of DOP price is favorable for the phthalic anhydride market. Overall, the demand for plasticizers in the industry is relatively stable, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly increased due to this impact.

In the future, the price trend of O-Xylene is mainly stable in the short term, but the downstream plasticizer industry is rising slightly. In addition, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is rising, and the export of phthalic anhydride has increased. It is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride in the future will rise slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 13th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the number of new orders is limited. The overall price of white carbon black has maintained its early trend.

Chemical Index: On July 10th, the chemical index stood at 806 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 42.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 34.78% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of July 11, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 926 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1, 2023 (reference price of 942 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in early July (7.1-7.11), the overall market situation of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in China showed a weak decline. In early July, the phosphorus ore market was operating in a weak and consolidated manner, with weak downstream demand. The overall shipment pace of the phosphorus ore market slowed down, and the mentality of the industry was average. The demand dragged down the impact. On the 11th, some mining companies in Guangxi and Guizhou lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore, with a downward adjustment of 20-50 yuan/ton, widening the gap between high and low prices on the market. As of July 11th, the domestic market price for 30% grade phosphate ore is based on 800-1000 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications, powder to lump ratio, and transportation conditions. The specific details need to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is light, and the overall market trend is still weak. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust slightly, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Acetic anhydride prices have stopped falling and risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 10th, the price of acetic anhydride was 4987.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% compared to the price of acetic anhydride on July 5th, which was 4937.50 yuan/ton; The price of acetic anhydride decreased by 0.25% compared to 5000 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of raw material acetic acid has increased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has increased. In July, the price of acetic anhydride stopped falling and rose.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and rose in July

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of July 10th, the price of acetic acid was 3033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.20% compared to the price of 2883.33 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. Due to the troubleshooting of acetic acid manufacturers, the supply of acetic acid has decreased, the price of acetic acid has increased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has increased. In the future, the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride has increased.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that due to equipment failures in acetic acid enterprises, the supply of acetic acid enterprises has decreased. In July, the price of acetic acid surged, the cost of acetic anhydride increased, and the upward momentum of acetic anhydride has increased. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, and supply and demand are temporarily stable. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is weak and sorted out. From July 3rd to 7th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 16300 yuan/ton to 16280 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.12%, a month on month increase of 0.124%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.18%. Production enterprises’ quotations remained stable, their support for the market weakened, and downstream demand was mainly in demand. Traders’ quotations were narrowed down.

The supply side is relatively abundant in the market.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene is experiencing fluctuations and rising prices in the domestic pure benzene market. The crude oil and styrene market also showed strong performance, and the industry’s mentality towards the future market has recovered, with a slight shift in the focus of negotiations. On July 7th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangye Society was 6228.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the beginning of this month (6183.83 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: The price of domestic aniline has continuously decreased. The supply of aniline is sufficient, although it is affected by factors such as the off-season of consumption in downstream summer, traders and downstream users have weak stocking intentions and poor purchasing interest. On July 7th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 9325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -8.80% compared to the beginning of this month (10225.00 yuan/ton). The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the buying momentum on the demand side is weak, and the demand for the cold industry is slightly shrinking. The peak season demand in the pipeline market has not yet started, and the market follow-up is relatively average, resulting in insufficient overall boosting power. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is bearish.

In the future market forecast, the current transaction is weak, and analysts from Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk list data from Business Society, the overall price of bromine was weak in June. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 21200 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average market price of bromine was 18000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 69.18%. On June 29th, the bromine commodity index was 63.16, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 74.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 7.20% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

The overall price of bromine is weak this month. The price of bromine continued to decline in mid to early June. The overall trading atmosphere in the bromine market is light. The downstream support is average, and the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand in the near future. The attitude of the bromine industry is average. In late June, the price of bromine remained stable and the market trend was dominated. Currently, the mainstream market price remains around 17000-18000 yuan/ton, with no significant fluctuations in the market. The overall trading atmosphere in the bromine market is light, and supply has increased. The downstream support is average, and the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand in the near future. The attitude of the bromine industry is average.

Regarding sulfur: The overall price of sulfur decreased in June. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 810 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average market price was 713.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 80.47%. In early June, the price of bromine rose, and sulfur enterprises had no pressure on inventory, which may be supported by favorable factors. However, the downstream production capacity utilization rate was low, and the market procurement was limited, resulting in insufficient momentum for sulfur growth. In mid to late June, the price of bromine decreased, sulfur enterprises had sufficient inventory, downstream demand was weak, actual market transactions were light, sulfur manufacturers had poor shipments, and the mentality of operators was insufficient. Under the supply and demand game, the sulfur market support was weak, and it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be weak and organized.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent weak trend of bromine prices this month has maintained a temporarily stable operating trend. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported, while the upstream sulfur prices are mainly weak in the latter half of the year, and bromine enterprises’ shipments are relatively average. Moreover, the price of bromine has fallen to a relatively low level, or there is no room for decline. Overall, it is expected that the short-term stable operation of bromine prices will depend on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid continued to decline in June. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the initial price of 9685.71 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.68%.

On the supply side: In June, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid declined, with the mainstream price negotiated by various regions in China ranging from 9400 to 9900 yuan/ton. Recently, some units have been shut down for maintenance, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is still sufficient. The weak order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid has affected the market trend of hydrofluoric acid, with raw material fluorite prices at a high level and downstream refrigerant demand being poor. The dual impact has led to serious losses for hydrofluoric acid production enterprises, Some companies have chosen to park due to losses, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid operating at around 60%. Some companies have increased inventory, which has affected the decline of the hydrofluoric acid market trend.

Raw material side: The price trend of domestic fluorite decreased slightly in June. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3117.5 yuan/ton, which is 0.83% lower than the daily price of 3143.75 yuan/ton. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises has slightly increased, and spot supply has increased. However, there has been little change in the mining of upstream mines, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains challenging. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and fluorite mines are not operating properly. The requirements of environmental protection and emergency management departments are becoming stricter, making it more difficult to start mining. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market price is supported, and the prices of raw materials are high, putting pressure on hydrofluoric acid enterprises.

On the demand side: The market for downstream refrigerant products at the terminal has declined, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has remained low. Recently, there has been sufficient supply of refrigerants, which has led to a decline in the price trend of domestic refrigerant R22. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the performance of the domestic trade market is weak, inventory digestion is the main focus, and procurement demand has not yet followed up. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is declining. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for consumer orders has not yet warmed up. Market confidence is insufficient. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24000-25000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. The demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, The operating rate is less than 30%, coupled with a decline in the export market, resulting in weak domestic and external demand. The refrigerant market has slightly declined, with scarce procurement of upstream raw materials, and the hydrofluoric acid market has been dragged down by demand.

Future Market Forecast: The upstream raw material fluorite market has fallen from a high level, coupled with the downstream refrigerant industry’s sluggish construction, weak procurement of hydrofluoric acid, high inventory of hydrofluoric acid, resonance between high raw material demand and poor demand, and serious losses for hydrofluoric acid production enterprises. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the hydrofluoric acid market is unlikely to improve in the short term, and the market may slightly decline.

The domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly declined. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.22% compared to the initial price of 7875 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.20%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

In June, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants was stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is around 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. In June, due to the slight decrease in the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride decreased. Recently, the transaction situation of phthalic anhydride has been sluggish, and the market trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

Cost side: Low prices of ortho benzene drag down the market

In June, the domestic price of ortho benzene remained low, with a price of 8100 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, which was the same as the price of 8100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable. However, port inventory is maintained, and the external market price of ortho benzene remains low. As a result, the domestic ortho benzene price trend is temporarily stable, and the low ortho benzene market has brought a certain negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, resulting in a slight decline in the phthalic anhydride market price.

On the demand side: DOP market is declining, and on-demand procurement is the main focus

The price trend in the downstream DOP market has slightly declined, with a price of 9518.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month. In June, the price dropped by 1.71%. Domestic DOP enterprises have started operating steadily, and the demand for phthalic anhydride procurement is normal. In June, DOP prices have slightly declined, while the price of raw material isooctanol has slightly declined. In addition, demand has not significantly improved, and market transaction performance is weak. The mainstream price of DOP is 9500-9600 yuan/ton, which is affected by poor demand in the DOP market, The price trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

In the future, the price of O-Xylene is temporarily stable in the short term, but the market of the downstream plasticizer industry is volatile, and the demand is mainly based on demand. In addition, the supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the purchase order situation is general. In addition, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride declines slightly, so it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will remain low in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 28th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 6600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.37% compared to June 1st.

In June, the melamine market remained stable and organized, with some high-end prices lowered by enterprises. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material urea fluctuated, affecting the mentality of the industry on the cost side. The utilization rate of supply side production capacity increased, downstream demand was flat, and the initial demand was mainly followed up in an appropriate amount. Enterprises shipped according to the market, and the quotation was mainly stable, while some high-end prices declined and adjusted. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material urea rose in a narrow range, with average cost support. Enterprises mainly executed preliminary orders, while downstream inquiries and procurement were just needed. The melamine market stabilized and consolidated.

Upstream urea, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for urea on June 27th was 2239.38, a decrease of 6.79% compared to June 1st (2402.50).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current rise in raw material urea prices has led to an increase in cost support. Enterprises mainly execute advance orders, while downstream demand is average. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and it is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may stabilize and operate, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.