Since August, the melamine market has risen steadily. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 8th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7050.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55% compared to August 1st.

Supply and demand: At the beginning of the month, the capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry was about 64%, and the downstream just needed to purchase. The market trading atmosphere was general. The enterprises adjusted their quotations according to their own shipments. The market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the melamine market was adjusted steadily.

Cost side: In August, the raw material urea market price first rose and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of urea on August 7th was 2584.29, a decrease of 1.47% compared to August 1st (2622.86). At the beginning of the month, the cost side support was strong, supporting the market’s attitude of price appreciation. As urea prices declined, support for the melamine market gradually weakened.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that current cost support is weak, while supply and demand support is average. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may become weak and operate, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

This week (7.31-8.7), the market for dichloromethane has significantly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 7th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2600 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.33% from last Monday’s 2400 yuan/ton, basically erasing the previous week’s decline. The price of raw material methanol continues to rise slightly, while the cost center of dichloromethane has slightly rebounded; The expected pressure on the supply side has slightly increased, and downstream demand has some support. However, as the price of dichloromethane rises, some regions’ gas buying weakens, and prices will slightly decline in the future; The inventory in the Shandong region is low, and manufacturers’ quotations are high and firm, while the price of dichloromethane in the Shandong region is rising.

This week (7.31-8.7), some units have slightly increased after restarting, and the pressure on the dichloromethane supply side is expected to increase again in the later stage of the production of Jiuhong’s new unit.

This week (7.31-8.7), the price of raw material methanol slightly increased, and the cost center of dichloromethane increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 7th, the spot price of methanol was 2330 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.19% from last Monday’s 2280 yuan/ton.

The inventory of enterprises in Shandong region remains low, and the supply of goods in the region is tight. At the beginning of the week, the shipment of enterprises was smooth, and the market was bullish. Merchants and downstream stocking were active, forming support for the price of dichloromethane; Currently in the off-season of air conditioning, the price of R32 has slightly decreased under the pressure of unloading, and the operation of the device has remained low. It only maintains weak support for dichloromethane, but the downstream pharmaceutical industry has increased demand, and industries such as lithium battery separators have stable operation, which has some support for dichloromethane.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst of Business Society, the supply side pressure of dichloromethane is expected to increase, but there is currently some support on the demand side. In addition, the cost side will continue to rise. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

O-Xylene price rises this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of August 4, the price of O-Xylene was 8600 yuan/ton, up 3.61% from the price of O-Xylene of 8300 yuan/ton on July 28 last weekend. The price of mixed xylene has increased, while the cost of ortho xylene has increased; The downstream market of phthalic anhydride rose in a volatile manner, the demand for ortho benzene was stable, the market of ortho benzene industry chain rose together, and the price of O-Xylene rose this week.

The market for raw material mixed xylene rose this week

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of August 4th, the price of mixed xylene was 8220 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton or 1.61% compared to the price of 8090 yuan/ton on July 28th last weekend. Crude oil prices rose in shock, Naphtha and mixed xylene prices rose, raw material costs rose, and O-Xylene market gained momentum.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and rises

According to the market analysis system of phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of August 4th, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8550 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.03% compared to the previous weekend’s phthalic anhydride price of 8462.50 yuan/ton on July 28th. The market of phthalic anhydride is firm, the price of phthalic anhydride rises in shock, the price decline of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is bad for phthalic anhydride, the starting point of plasticizer enterprises is low, the demand for phthalic anhydride is weak, the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from naphthalene is insufficient, and the power for the rise of O-Xylene is limited.

Future prospects

Analysts of O-Xylene data from the business agency believe that the price of Naphtha and mixed xylene will rise and the cost of raw materials for o-xylene will rise due to the rise of crude oil; The downstream demand is limited, the support for the price rise of phthalic anhydride is insufficient, and the rising power of O-Xylene is limited. In the future, the cost of ortho benzene will increase; The downstream demand for ortho benzene is average, and there is still upward support for ortho benzene in the future. It is expected that ortho benzene prices will stabilize after a slight increase in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fluctuated and increased in July. The price of calcium carbide increased from 2883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2950.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.31%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 23.38% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region fluctuated and increased in July.

Cost side: The price of blue charcoal has significantly decreased

In July, the price of upstream calcium carbide charcoal slightly increased, with a price of around 1100 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In the short term, the price of blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, while the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported.

On the demand side: PVC market prices fluctuate and rise

The downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and increased in July. The market price of PVC has increased from 5505.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5796.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.30%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 14.45% year-on-year. PVC Spot market prices rose in shock. The overall market trading situation has improved, and downstream market order demand is improving.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early August, the calcium carbide market may slightly increase, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of upstream raw materials such as blue charcoal have stabilized at a low level, while the cost support for calcium carbide is average. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early August, with consolidation being the main focus.

Aluminium fluoride prices dropped in July

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 31, the quotation of domestic Aluminium fluoride was 9650 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from the price of Aluminium fluoride of 9900 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of raw materials fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and downstream demand was weak. In July, the price of Aluminium fluoride fell in shock.

Weak and declining prices of raw material hydrofluoric acid

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94% compared to July 1, when the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan. In the off-season of refrigerant, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is weak. In July, the price of hydrofluoric acid dropped sharply, the cost of Aluminium fluoride dropped, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Fluctuation and decline in fluorite prices in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the price of fluorite was 3056.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared to the price of 3117.50 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. In the slack season of the market, the demand is weak. In July, the price of fluorite fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Aluminum prices fluctuated and fell in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the price of aluminum ingots was 18376.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93% compared to the aluminum price of 18550 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. In July, the aluminum price was weak and consolidated. In the summer, high temperature power was limited. Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Sichuan stopped production for maintenance. At the same time, more electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan resumed production. The overall electrolytic aluminum output rose, and the demand for Aluminium fluoride rose.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that: in July, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased; The output of electrolytic aluminum increased, the demand for Aluminium fluoride warmed up, and Aluminium fluoride was supported by growth. In the future, the demand for Aluminium fluoride will recover as the cost decreases, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride will increase the downward pressure. It is expected that the price of Aluminium fluoride will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12250 yuan/ton on July 24, and the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12575 yuan/ton on July 28. The price of Caprolactam rose 2.65% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices rose this week. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to strengthen this week, with good cost support. Under cost pressure, the spot price of Caprolactam increases with the cost. The spot supply in the northern market is tight, and downstream customers follow up on demand, making procurement more cautious.

The price of raw material pure benzene has increased this week. On July 24th, the price of pure benzene was 7037 yuan/ton. On Friday (July 28th), the price of pure benzene was 7230 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.76% compared to last week and a decrease of 19.88% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7200 yuan/ton (with prices in Shandong and Hebei regions simultaneously increasing by 400 yuan/ton).

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to rise recently. Affected by the cost boost, the market trend of Caprolactam has risen, and the terminal demand has followed up on demand. Under the support of cost, it is expected that the price of Caprolactam will continue to run high and strong in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic MTBE market is fluctuating and rising. From July 1st to 27th, the price of MTBE increased from 7087 yuan/ton to 7562 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.70% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 7.23% and a year-on-year increase of 1.92%.

At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil market was supported, and traders actively increased their prices. Production enterprises repeatedly raised their factory quotes, with a total increase of 300-500 yuan/ton. However, the downstream acceptance capacity was average, and the MTBE market price immediately declined.

In mid month, the international crude oil market supported, and most manufacturers had a large supply of early orders. Therefore, the supply of goods was temporarily tight, and the MTBE market price immediately rose.

In the latter half of the month, Lihua Yiji Port was completed and turned into domestic sales, increasing domestic supply pressure. At the same time, the trend of the gasoline market was average, with poor terminal demand and a slight decrease in prices. After falling to a certain low point, there were a large number of transactions in the gasoline shipping list, combined with the increase in crude oil closing, terminal demand increased, and the MTBE market stopped falling and went up.

Trend Chart of MTBE Domestic Production Price Average of Business Society:

On the cost side, the crude oil market surged in July, and WTI crude oil reached its highest point in the past three months. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.74 per barrel, an increase of $1.67 or 2.0%. The oil market has been boosted by the expected tightening of supply and continued fermentation, as well as the rebound in demand. As of July 26th, the Federal Reserve announced a 25bp interest rate hike, coupled with a lower than expected decline in US crude oil inventories, resulting in profit taking in crude oil futures and pressure on prices.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, there may be room for international oil prices to decline. Under the continuous positive impact of the lack of news, the refined oil market in Shandong Province is gradually returning to the supply and demand level. The gasoline market is supported by strong demand in the summer, and downstream users purchase on demand. The market trading atmosphere is mild, and the MTBE demand side is biased towards positive factors.

On the enterprise side, the supply of MTBE is gradually increasing, with a bearish impact on the supply side.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 26th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.59/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $955.99-957.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $19/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1224.99- $1225.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $19.42 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $1073.16-1073.51 per ton (302.30-302.40 cents per gallon).

In the future market forecast, there will be an increase in supply, but the downstream gasoline market is bullish. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market may consolidate in the short term.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has slightly increased this week, with the average market price rising from 179.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 183.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.23%. Weekend prices fell 6.65% year-on-year. On July 24th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 48.32, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.96% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 168.74% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have increased this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market price was adjusted at a low level, with the price of 1718.75 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 20.20% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 605.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 607.50 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.41%. The weekend price has decreased by 58.74% year-on-year. Overall, upstream support is average, while downstream demand is good.

Future Market Forecast

In late July, the market price of hydrochloric acid may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine market was adjusted at a low level, with general cost support. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market was adjusted at a low level, the ammonium chloride market rose slightly, and the downstream purchase intention was weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream prices of styrene in Shandong have been fluctuating and rising recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7890.00 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7958.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78%. The price has decreased by 21.09% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the styrene market price has fluctuated and increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly increased in the past month, and the market has continued to rise this week. The international oil price continues to rise, the pure benzene market keeps up, and the cost support is good. At present, the downstream construction has increased slightly, the spot transactions have increased, and the styrene market is more favorable, and the market continues to rise.

In terms of raw materials, the East China market is approaching delivery, and the pure benzene market is rising. Spot and recent month demand is strong, and the increase is expanding. Shandong traders’ demand for inventory and replenishment has actively pursued an upward trend, driving the focus of transactions upward. However, downstream resistance to high priced raw materials has slowed down the pace of procurement, resulting in average overall transactions. Pure benzene was sold at 7000 yuan/ton.

On the downstream side, the market price of PS (polystyrene) is slightly soft, and there is a lack of buying follow-up in the downstream, with some merchants offering slight discounts. Reference for mainstream brand prices excluding taxes: Ningbo Taihua 535N reported 8490 yuan/ton, while Shanghai SECCO 622P reported 9000 yuan/ton for goods shortage; Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 reported 8640 yuan/ton; Hong Kong Petrochemical reported 9500 yuan/ton for 1841H and 9150 yuan/ton for SR600.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the average quotation for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the week was 9350 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the weekend was 9400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.53% and a decrease of 17.90% compared to the same period last year. The terminal profit is meager, there is a clear resistance to high market prices, and the follow-up of buying is limited. The overall transaction is weak, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market may mainly have a narrow range of fluctuations.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has rebounded after rising, and spot prices have fluctuated in both directions. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 21, the average price of ABS sample products was 10675 yuan/ton, a+1.43% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month. The overall performance of ABS upstream materials this week was average. Among them, the market for raw material acrylonitrile has declined, while the price of cost end propylene has decreased. Due to independent load reduction and unplanned shutdowns in the early stage, acrylonitrile enterprises have some positive supply side effects, but demand is weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment among operators has intensified. The flow of goods on the market is not smooth, and prices have stagnated after falling.

International oil prices continue to rise, with strong cost support and an increase in downstream demand. There are many favorable conditions for the short-term styrene market, and it is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly fluctuate and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 21, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold and the downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. The factory has given up profits and taken orders, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The enterprise quotation is Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 14500 yuan/ton.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On July 20th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 658 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.92% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 24.62% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.