This week (8.21-8.28), the market for butadiene rubber continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11650 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.84% from last Monday’s 11440 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene continues to run at a high level, and the cost support of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continues; This week, the supply price of butadiene rubber increased by 200 yuan/ton, and merchants’ offers slightly increased.

This week (August 21- August 28), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants slightly increased.

This week (8.21-8.28), the price of raw material butadiene continued to run at a high level, and the cost of butadiene rubber continued to receive support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of butadiene was 7618 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07% from last Monday’s 7613 yuan/ton.

This week (8.21-8.28), the natural rubber market slightly rose, but the price difference with cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber gradually narrowed, which had a negative impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of natural rubber was 11940 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.84% from last Monday’s 11840 yuan/ton.

Recently, the tire production rate has remained stable, and the demand for rubber has remained stable. It is understood that as of late August 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province is 6.4% for all steel tires and around 7.2% for half steel tires.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the high raw material prices of butadiene rubber have support in terms of cost. This week, the production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, and the supply of butadiene rubber is slightly loose; Downstream tire construction is basically stable and requires support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; Overall, it is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will be relatively strong in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is operating at a high level. From August 21st to 25th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 17550 yuan/ton to 17766 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.23% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 9.67%, and a year-on-year increase of 13.89%. The overall supply is still relatively limited, and the overall price fluctuations in the market are slow, with a narrow range of consolidation.

On the supply side, the overall supply is relatively limited. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, pure benzene is the main raw material in the domestic pure benzene market. As of August 25th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shangshang Society was 7867.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.96% compared to the beginning of this month (7287.17 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: Domestic aniline has continuously increased. As of August 25th, the benchmark price of Shangshang Society’s aniline was 11292.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.50% compared to the beginning of this month (10037.50 yuan/ton). The cost side of aggregated MDI is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, under the traditional peak season of the pipeline industry, the overall performance is average, while other industries have not changed much recently. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the supply side is positive, and downstream demand is turning to average. Analysts from Business Society Aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly focused on consolidation and wait-and-see.

Recently, the melamine market has stabilized and improved. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 21, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7050.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last Tuesday (August 15) and a decrease of 9.23% compared to the same period last year.

Supply and demand side: Recently, some devices on the supply side have been shut down for maintenance, and the production capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry has decreased. The tight supply has provided some support for the market, and downstream demand is mainly for follow-up. Melamine prices have stabilized and sorted out. On the 21st, the mainstream factory prices of enterprises in East China were around 7600 to 7700 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Recently, the market price of raw material urea has been operating at a high level. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on August 21, the reference price of urea was 2640.00, which increased by 0.65% compared to August 1 (2622.86). The cost side has strong support for the melamine market, supporting the enterprise’s price mentality.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that both cost and supply are currently supported, and downstream purchases are made on demand. It is expected that the melamine market may remain strong in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market slightly rose this week (August 14th to August 21st), with the market price in the East China region reaching 13650 yuan/ton on August 21st, an increase of 0.74% during the cycle.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the high level transactions in the Tianjin Port manganese ore market have not yet been achieved, and prices have continued to consolidate. Downstream prices continue to be depressed, and the market transaction prices are inconsistent. There has been a slight loosening compared to the previous high prices, with South African semi carbonated ore priced at 31-31.3 yuan/ton, Gabon priced at 38-38.3 yuan/ton, and Australia priced at 38.5-39 yuan/ton. The transaction price of the South African high-speed rail in Qinzhou Port has increased to 32.5 yuan/ton, the transaction price of semi carbonic acid is 30.5 yuan/ton or above, the transaction price of Australian block is 39.3-39.5 yuan/ton, the transaction price of Gabon block is 37-37.5 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of Australian seed is 36.5 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for 5 consecutive months since December 2022, and after a slight recovery in May, they have been declining for 8 consecutive weeks since June, and have slightly rebounded this week.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market slightly rebounded, with mainstream domestic prices ranging from 12200 to 12300 yuan/ton, an increase of about 300 yuan/ton compared to last week. The domestic market continued to operate weakly this week, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and limited negotiations. There has been little change in supply and demand this week, and downstream demand has been weak. At present, the price of electrolytic manganese has approached the cost line, and with cost support, refineries have generally increased their prices. This week, prices have slightly rebounded. The steel bidding is still lukewarm and tepid, and the new round of steel bidding prices has been introduced, which basically meets the market’s expected quotation. Currently, the market is still waiting for further guidance on steel bidding. This week’s FOB price is $1640- $1690 per ton, with a slight rebound of $10 per ton. Overall, there is currently a significant inventory pressure, and downstream demand is expected to show signs of improvement in the short term. The recent improvement is mainly due to high prices from enterprises, and it is difficult for supply and demand to be positive. In the short term, the business community in the future is expected to continue to operate weakly.

This week, the silicon manganese market has been consolidating and operating, with prices steadily rising. Currently, there is still a shortage of spot goods, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to increase prices, occupying an active position. Various policy news needs to be released, and the market is mixed with long and short. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quotation for silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6600-6700 yuan/ton on August 18th, with an average market price of 6666 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63% compared to the beginning of the week.

Related data:

Customs data shows that the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in June 2023 was approximately 24847.275 tons, an increase of 15.74% month on month and a decrease of 19.20% year on year.

In June 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was approximately 1520.011 tons, a decrease of 39.2% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 51.99%.

On August 18th, the base metal index was 1196 points, an increase of 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.99% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and an increase of 86.29% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the commodity price rise and fall list in the 33rd week of 2023 (8.14-8.18), with antimony (2.61%), nickel (1.28%), and lead (1.21%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are three products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-2.30%), tin (-1.84%), and zinc (-1.22%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.42%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of liquid caprolactam in China was 13100 yuan/ton on August 14th, and 12975 yuan/ton on August 18th. Caprolactam prices fell by 0.95% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has fallen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, resulting in poor cost support. The downstream PA6 chip market has weakened, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement has decreased. Caprolactam is operating under pressure, and the spot market has declined. As of August 18th, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam settlement price is 13400 yuan/ton, which is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On August 14th, the price of pure benzene was 7817 yuan/ton. On Friday (August 18th), the price of pure benzene was 7769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39% compared to last week and an increase of 2.33% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7750 yuan/ton (the prices in Shandong and Hebei regions were synchronized).

This week, downstream PA6 domestic market prices fell. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. As of August 18th, the average factory price of PA6 in China is 14050 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been operating weakly recently. The market for raw material pure benzene is weakening, with insufficient cost support. The performance of terminal demand is poor, and the transaction focus of caprolactam is downward. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will be mainly weak in the short term.

The domestic bisphenol A market continues to be strong and rising, while the supply side market remains tight with spot resources. There is not much pressure on factories to ship, and the offer is firm. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market offer for bisphenol A is between 10750 and 10850 yuan/ton.

The domestic bisphenol A market is on the rise. The supply side is supported by positive factors, with mainstream factories mainly delivering pre contract orders and limited circulation of resources to the market. There is not much pressure on traders to ship, and the upward sentiment still exists. Traders are actively raising their prices as factories adjust their prices. On August 17th, the latest official price of Lihua Yiwei Yuan was 10700 yuan/ton.

The early rise of dual raw materials was significant. Although there was some looseness in the original offer, there was still support from the cost side. The East China phenol market was negotiated at 7950-8100 yuan/ton, and with the arrival of domestic trade ships and cargo to supplement, terminal participation declined, resulting in a narrow decline in the market. The negotiations in the East China acetone market range from 6750 to 6850 yuan/ton, with mostly small orders traded on the market. High priced shipments are not smooth, trading is sluggish, and the market range is mainly adjusted.

The two major downstream demand markets are strong, with the PC market recovering to a high level of consolidation after a significant surge. In the early stage, the increase in imported goods sources was significant, driving the domestic market upward. East China injection molding grade high-end materials are negotiated at 17000-17700 yuan/ton. Downstream epoxy resin saw a slight upward trend, supported by cost side support, with a strong market offer and limited demand for new downstream orders. The transaction was not optimistic, and the liquid resin market in East China reported a price of 14000-14500 yuan/ton for water purification, which remained stable in the short term. If raw materials become loose, there may be a downward trend.

The Business Society believes that the current supply side pressure is not high, and the cost side support for raw materials has decreased. Downstream still needs to follow up, and traders have little enthusiasm for operation. In the short term, bisphenol A is operating at high levels, and attention is paid to the situation of raw materials and downstream demand. The mainstream negotiation price is between 10750 and 10850 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the number of new orders is limited. The overall price of white carbon black has maintained its early trend.

Chemical Index: On August 13th, the chemical index stood at 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

The recent market situation of melamine is mainly stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7050.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last Tuesday (August 8th).

Supply and demand side: The production capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry is high, and the downstream demand side is average. The main demand for raw material procurement is rigid, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. The price of melamine is mainly stable. On the 14th, the mainstream factory price of enterprises in central China was around 7300-7500 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Recently, the market price of raw material urea has been running smoothly. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of urea on August 11th was 2577.14, a decrease of 1.74% compared to August 1st (2622.86). Cost side has some support for the melamine market.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that current market transactions are mainly in demand, and the market atmosphere is average. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be on the sidelines for consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in raw material urea prices.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been fluctuating, with spot prices fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 11th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10525 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of around 90%, which has increased compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is abundant. There has been an increase in inventory, with an overall output of over 150000 tons. Supply side support for spot market weakened.

In terms of raw materials: At the beginning of this month, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials fell. The rise of the raw material acrylonitrile market has been hindered, with some areas experiencing a decline. The raw material price is acceptable, and the support for acrylonitrile is maintained; The rise in downstream construction positions increases the pressure on the supply end of acrylonitrile; Downstream industries are generally operating, and demand has not improved. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile may stagnate and enter the consolidation market.

The price of butadiene continued to rise this week. During the week, crude oil prices continued to rise, and Sinopec raised its quotation to support the seller’s mentality. However, Luqing Petrochemical has increased its supply of goods for export, and there are also plans for downstream enterprises to sell raw materials. The news of increased supply has brought significant pressure on the market atmosphere, and the domestic butadiene market has improved.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has recently declined. Recently, downstream demand has been poor, but costs are still relatively high. Under the tug of war between supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term styrene spot market will mainly experience a slight decline.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers decreased, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in poor overall demand.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have fluctuated, weakening support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started construction with a narrow increase compared to the previous period, and there is an accumulation of market inventory. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a narrow consolidation market.

Since August, the melamine market has risen steadily. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 8th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7050.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55% compared to August 1st.

Supply and demand: At the beginning of the month, the capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry was about 64%, and the downstream just needed to purchase. The market trading atmosphere was general. The enterprises adjusted their quotations according to their own shipments. The market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the melamine market was adjusted steadily.

Cost side: In August, the raw material urea market price first rose and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of urea on August 7th was 2584.29, a decrease of 1.47% compared to August 1st (2622.86). At the beginning of the month, the cost side support was strong, supporting the market’s attitude of price appreciation. As urea prices declined, support for the melamine market gradually weakened.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that current cost support is weak, while supply and demand support is average. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may become weak and operate, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.