According to data monitored by Business Society, domestic carbon black has been operating steadily at a high level this week. On October 13th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 11400 yuan/ton

Cost side: The coal tar market price has slightly increased this week, with high level consolidation and operation being the main focus. Downstream enterprises have a good atmosphere of restocking after holidays, and there is a strong atmosphere of speculation on the market. The supply of coal tar market is relatively tight. As of now, the domestic price of coal tar market is 5140 yuan/ton. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises have strong quotations, providing strong support for carbon black cost side.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and currently the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is not high, resulting in a tight overall supply.

In terms of terminals, downstream enterprises have a relatively high level of operation, and tire shipments are relatively smooth. In terms of demand, supported by strong export orders, the tire industry has been operating at a high level recently. The strong demand in the tire industry has provided strong support for the upward trend of carbon black, and the demand side is driven by an atmosphere of buying up and not buying down. The entry into the market for purchasing is relatively positive, and the overall trading atmosphere is acceptable.

Overall, there are many positive factors in the current market, and it is expected that the short-term carbon black market will maintain a high level of operation, with a stronger consolidation operation. The future trend will focus on downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fluctuated and declined in September. From September 1st to 28th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 17516 yuan/ton to 16500 yuan/ton, with a 5.8% decrease in price during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 0.86%.

From late August to early September, some manufacturers’ prices were on the high side, but the market continued to experience high transmission barriers. The overall follow-up ability of the downstream market is weak, and the buying sentiment is relatively average. Traders are gradually lowering their prices to adapt to the market. In mid month, some sources of goods gradually filled in, while the demand side consumption capacity was slightly average, resulting in a slow decline in aggregated MDI prices. In the second half of the month, the market demand side follow-up was relatively average, and the price boost was relatively limited. Downstream demand was mainly concentrated, and traders remained in a market oriented state, patiently waiting for the demand side to follow up.

On the supply side, the domestic aggregate MDI production in September (as of the 27th) was 207200 tons, an increase of 31.2% compared to the previous month. 4. The MDI integration of Wanhua Chemical Yantai Industrial Park (mainly including 1.1 million tons/year of MDI and 300000 tons/year of TDI), petrochemical integration (mainly including 750000 tons/year of PDH and 760000 tons/year of PO/MTBE24/year), and related coordination devices began to be shut down for maintenance on August 15, 2023. As of September 27, the shutdown maintenance of the above-mentioned equipment has been completed and normal production has resumed. The overall supply has been supplemented. The supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market remained at a high level in September. In September, both pure benzene and styrene were in low inventory, coupled with an increase in terminal orders for gold, silver, and ten, as well as a demand for dual stocking in October. The market experienced a large-scale increase in the first half of September, and the demand for short orders to replenish during the increase further drove the rise of pure benzene, with prices hitting 9000 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Supported by the cost side in September, aniline first rose and then stabilized. Some factories have maintenance plans, with double section pre stocking and active downstream receiving. The short-term aggregation of MDI is influenced by favorable factors on the cost side.

On the demand side, as prices rise, the ability to follow up on the demand side is relatively limited. But as October approaches, there is a willingness to reserve some of the demand orders before the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, and there is a willingness to follow up with some in the market in the near future. Downstream of MDI, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of refrigerators from January to August 2023 was 65.11 million units, an increase of 17.4% year-on-year; The production of automobiles reached 17.987 million units, an increase of 3.52% year-on-year. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, with high cost support, the supply side benefits are gradually disappearing, and downstream demand is average. MDI analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.

Since the overall increase in the epoxy resin market supported by raw materials in August, major enterprises have raised prices multiple times under cost pressure, and entered a state of continuous cost support in September, where the overall situation showed a first rise followed by a high adjustment. As of August 28, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China had been delivered at 14900-15400 yuan/ton of purified water, and the solid epoxy resin market in Mount Huangshan had been negotiated to be delivered at 14700-15200 yuan/ton in cash.

In September, the domestic bisphenol A market continued its strong rise in August, with market prices exceeding 12000 yuan/ton. In the middle to early ten days, the main focus of the phenol/acetone market in the upstream of the industrial chain was upward, with high support. In addition, the shortage of spot resources in the supply side market and the shortage of inventory in factories led to continuous increases in listing prices. However, in the last week at the end of the month, due to the negative impact on the cost side, bisphenol A turned around and fell significantly to around 11300-11550 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the bisphenol A market rose by 5.54% in September, with an amplitude of 10.5%, showing an overall trend of rising before falling.

The market price of epichlorohydrin slightly increased in September. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material glycerol was mainly stable, while the price of raw material propylene fluctuated slightly, with some support for cost. The industry’s capacity utilization rate was below 50%, and some enterprises had no inventory pressure. Downstream inquiries into the market increased, driving the steady increase in enterprise quotations. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material glycerol fell, while the price of raw material propylene declined narrowly. Cost support was weak, and supply side support remained. After downstream restocking, small orders mainly needed to be priced and followed up. As the holiday approached, market trading slowed down, and the focus of negotiations was mainly on stability.

From the perspective of the business community, the epoxy resin market has undergone a wide adjustment, with the East China liquid resin market ranging from 14700 to 15300 yuan/ton, mainly due to changes in dual raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7610.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7590.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26%. The current price has increased by 6.60% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 18.61% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices have fallen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has fluctuated slightly in the past month, and this week the market continues to decline slightly. The market price of potassium chloride on the cost side has stabilized. Downstream demand is poor, transactions in the potassium carbonate market are light, potassium carbonate inventory is high, and the market continues to decline. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7300-7700 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated slightly: on September 22, the distribution price of potassium chloride by Zibo Dehe Chemical Co., Ltd. was around 3100 yuan/ton. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have increased, and the market atmosphere is good. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, with primary demand for procurement. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

Recently, the domestic supply of potassium chloride has been relatively concentrated, and the market is relatively stable. Downstream procurement remains in demand, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 21, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7350.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the melamine market remained stable and slightly weak. Recently, the price of raw material urea has slightly increased, with some companies resuming production and increasing market supply. However, downstream inquiries have a moderate enthusiasm, mainly focusing on just in demand procurement. The market trading atmosphere is flat, and the mentality of operators is insufficient. Some holders have lowered prices to attract orders. The focus of negotiations in the melamine market is stable, but weak.

Upstream urea: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of urea on September 20th was 2641.67, a decrease of 0.75% compared to September 1st (2661.67), which still provides support for the melamine market.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply and demand support is weak, and the atmosphere for new orders in the market is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be weak and stable, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

The domestic MIBK market has shown a broad upward trend. The tight spot supply situation is difficult to improve. Under the influence of multiple factory price increases, the market has continued to rise significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quoted 14433 yuan/ton on September 1 and 17367 yuan/ton on September 19, with a cumulative increase of 21% in September,

The MIBK market has risen, with mainstream negotiated prices in East China exceeding 17300 yuan/ton. The tight spot resource situation in the market is difficult to improve, and cargo holders are pushing up their offers again.

In terms of cost, the East China acetone market has been continuously rising, pushing it up to 7550 yuan/ton last week. On the 18th, the market eased and negotiations weakened. This was mainly due to the weakening of replenishment sentiment after a round of procurement in the early stage, and the profit-making space taken by intermediate traders, resulting in a significant daily decline of 250 yuan/ton in trading volume. The East China acetone market was negotiated at 7250 yuan/ton. For downstream MIBK, the sustained rise in acetone in the early stages still provides support.

From the perspective of the business community, the current industry operating rate is at 50%, with a slight increase in domestic supply but little impact. Currently, it is time to stock up before the National Day holiday, and the supply is relatively concentrated. Traders are pushing up their offers. Business Society predicts that there is still room for upward growth in the short-term MIBK market.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to rise in September. As of September 19th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 8859.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.71% compared to the price of 7220.00 yuan/ton on September 1st.

Rising Crude Oil Boosts Domestic Maleic Anhydride Market

The international crude oil market has continued to rise recently. The main reason is that the expectation of supply tightening has overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventory. Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended their plan to reduce crude oil supply by 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year, as the sustained supply gap caused by the production reduction is significant, which may lead to tight crude oil supply in the fourth quarter; According to a report released by the EIA on Wednesday, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4 million barrels last week, with analysts expecting a decrease of approximately 1.9 million barrels; The demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States remains strong, especially with a significant increase in diesel futures.

Continuous rise in the market for n-butane and hydrogenated benzene drives up the domestic maleic anhydride market

On the upstream side, the hydrogenation benzene market continues to follow the trend of pure benzene, with little change in supply and a slight increase in operating rates. As of the 19th, the mainstream quotation range in the hydrogenation benzene market in East China is between 8800 to 8900 yuan/ton. Recently, the market for n-butane has continued to rise, with prices in Shandong ranging from 5600 to 5700 yuan/ton as of September 19th.

The rise of unsaturated resin market drives the domestic maleic anhydride market

Recently, the main raw material styrene in the downstream unsaturated resin market of maleic anhydride has continued to rise, boosting the resin market. Currently, the price of unsaturated resin is high, supporting the maleic anhydride market. As of the 19th, the solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 8800 yuan/ton, Jiangsu region is around 8800 yuan/ton, and South China region is around 9100 yuan/ton.

Business Society maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current prices of raw materials for maleic anhydride, n-butane and hydrogenated benzene, are high, and the prices of downstream unsaturated resin are high under cost pressure. At present, dealers are actively shipping, and some enterprises are cautious in their operations. Factories mainly execute early orders, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be mainly consolidated at a high level in the short term.

Market analysis for this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of the 15th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 24333.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as last Friday’s price. This week, magnesium prices were initially suppressed and then increased. At the beginning of the week, market transactions slowed down and prices continued to decline. However, factory inventory pressure was not significant, coupled with high raw material costs, leading to a rebound in the middle and later stages of the week. By Friday, the mainstream factories in the Fugu region are offering a spot exchange rate of 24300-24500 yuan/ton, including tax.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of supply, the current mentality of magnesium factories is still reluctant to sell at high prices, and some manufacturers have chosen not to offer prices temporarily. In the short term, the factory side quotation may remain firm. In terms of demand, downstream buyers are cautious and find it difficult to accept high priced magnesium ingots, while intermediaries actively inquire and stock up.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the quotation for the ferrosilicon market in Ningxia region is around 6850-7000 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6970 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon market has rebounded, and the manufacturer’s operating rate is not low. The orchid charcoal market is relatively strong, with some enterprises experiencing price increases ranging from 60 to 100 yuan/ton. The orchid charcoal market is operating steadily with a strong trend, and the production cost pressure of orchid charcoal enterprises continues to increase. Coupled with the current low starting inventory in the orchid charcoal market, some enterprises have seen orchid charcoal prices rise by 20-50 yuan/ton, initiating the fifth round of price increases.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the main factors contributing to the sustained strength of magnesium prices are: firstly, low inventory levels among manufacturers and an increase in quotations due to tight spot prices; 2、 Silicon iron and blue carbon are relatively stable and strong, while magnesium prices are supported at the bottom; 3、 As the Double Festival approaches, it cannot be ruled out that the market activity of magnesium ingots has increased. Amidst many positive factors, it is expected that the short-term price of magnesium ingots will remain stable and tend to be strong

Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has continued to rise. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3350 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.89% from the beginning of the week’s price of 3193.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 20.45%.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting raw ore production, shortage of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, As a result, it is difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations, and the availability of fluorite in stock is very tight. As a result, the market price of fluorite continues to rise.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the refrigerant market is rising

Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions has been negotiated to increase to 10200-10600 yuan/ton. Some devices are still in shutdown, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is relatively normal, and the sulfuric acid market price is at a high level. As a result, the hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and the rise in hydrofluoric acid price to some extent supports the rise of the fluorite market, The fluorite market has slightly increased.

The market trend of downstream refrigerant products in the terminal market has increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and downstream procurement needs to follow up. Some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance, and the monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small. The price trend of R22 has increased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price of R134a is rising. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have a rising price trend, and the current cost is firm. Enterprises’ reluctance to sell has escalated. The current market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 26000 to 28000 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant companies to have a clear intention to sell, and the refrigerant market trend has increased, To some extent, it is beneficial for the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor industries, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Future forecast: Although Mongolia’s imported fluorite mines have increased, the domestic supply of fluorite mines is difficult to improve. Some mines have stopped production and are undergoing safety inspections. In addition, the trend of the hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and hydrofluoric acid companies hold an optimistic attitude towards the future. The refrigerant quota plan has recently stimulated the market, and the refrigerant market trend is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that there is still room for the price of fluorite to rise in the future.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the price of DOP was 11566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.18% from the price of 11825 yuan/ton on September 7th. The prices of raw materials have fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and fallen this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 14th was 12200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.72% compared to the price of 12940 yuan/ton on September 7th. The domestic isooctanol plant has started operation and restarted, with sufficient supply of isooctanol. The price of raw material propylene has decreased, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87% compared to the price of 8662.50 yuan/ton on September 7th. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride fluctuates and increases, leading to an increase in the price of raw materials for phthalic anhydride. The willingness to sell phthalic anhydride has increased, and the price of phthalic anhydride has increased. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and there is a significant resistance to high priced phthalic anhydride. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride will remain stable.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in terms of raw materials, the prices of isooctanol have fluctuated and fallen, while the prices of phthalic anhydride have continued to rise weakly, resulting in a decrease in the DOP cost of plasticizer products; PVC prices have fluctuated and fallen, with average enthusiasm for downstream PVC procurement and insufficient support for plasticizer demand. In the future, against the backdrop of weak supply and demand for plasticizers, there is insufficient demand support for cost reduction, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall.