According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene has slightly increased recently (9.1-9.11). On September 11th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 8530 yuan/ton, while on September 1st, the benchmark price was 8450 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95%.

Low inventory xylene market high operation

The supply of mixed xylene remains tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of September 7th, the inventory of xylene in East China was around 12000 tons; The inventory of xylene in South China is around 10000 tons. Inventory remains low.

International crude oil prices rise, supported by the cost of toluene

Since September, crude oil futures have risen significantly. As of the 11th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 10 contract was at $87.29 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures settled at $90.64 per barrel for the 11 contract. OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices.

Downstream PX starts construction, 70% xylene has rigid support needed

The operating rate of domestic PX is over 70%, and the spot supply is relatively normal. Driven by the rise of crude oil, the external price trend of PX has increased. As of the 7th, the closing prices in Asia are 1081-1083 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1106-1108 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

The price of refined oil has risen, and the demand for high levels of xylene in refinery operations is supported

Recently, some merchants have a decent restocking mentality, and their main outsourcing has increased, while refinery inventory has remained low; In addition, supported by the upcoming Double Festival in the later stage, some manufacturers may stock up in advance. The operating rate of domestic main refineries remains at a high level, and the supply side is relatively loose, which to some extent suppresses gasoline prices. The combination of long and short factors has led to high and fluctuating gasoline market conditions. Recently, the price trend of the diesel market has been relatively strong. On the one hand, crude oil cost support still exists, which is beneficial for the domestic refined oil market. On the other hand, the third batch of export quotas for Chinese refined oil has finally been implemented, further loosening the control of domestic refined oil exports. Under the stimulation of high profits, the enthusiasm of finished oil export units has increased, especially in the case of diesel or additional demand.

Future Market Forecast: In the short term, international crude oil and naphtha costs will continue to support, and the tight supply of xylene will not decrease. However, downstream buying enthusiasm will weaken, and the market’s upward momentum will be weak. Overall, in the short term, mixed xylene prices will consolidate at a high level.

This week’s lead market (9.1-9.8) showed a “V” trend, with the average price in the domestic market at 16550 yuan/ton last weekend and 16605 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 0.33%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend is relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 9 consecutive weeks.

In terms of supply, the construction of primary lead refineries has remained at a high level recently, and the supply of recycled lead has also been relatively stable in the near future. The downstream market on the demand side has been in a seasonal peak season recently, with only automotive batteries showing outstanding performance in the downstream market. The demand for construction has been in the peak season market. However, the performance of the electric vehicle battery market is relatively ordinary, with the overall peak season not booming, and the construction is relatively low, resulting in average market demand. Overall, the lead ingot market has been relatively weak in recent times due to fundamental factors, mainly following macroeconomic fluctuations. The impact of capital games on the market far exceeds the supply and demand side. In the peak season, it is expected that the market will continue to maintain a high volatility trend in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the recent macroeconomic and financial performance.

On September 10th, the base metal index stood at 1233 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 92.06% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 36th week of 2023 (9.4-9.8), there were a total of 18 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was one commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (6.41%), metallic praseodymium (4.69%), and praseodymium oxide (3.94%). There are four products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-2.33%), silver (-1.70%), and copper (-1.56%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average rise and fall was 1.59%.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, the average price of PS at the beginning of this week was 9466 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS at the weekend was 9533 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.70% and a decrease of 8.92% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

PS (polystyrene) cost support.

The cost support is obvious, and PS (polystyrene) petrochemical manufacturers have adjusted their prices, causing the market focus to rise. Buying at high prices has led to resistance, resulting in a situation where there is a price without a market. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 9600 and 11000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 10000 and 11100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PS cost support, it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) market price may mainly show a slight upward trend in the short term.

The market price of melamine has increased since September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 4th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7425.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.71% compared to September 1st.

Supply and demand side: Abundant and tight supply of pending orders

Recently, some devices have been shut down for maintenance, and the production capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry is below 60%. Enterprises mainly ship early orders in an orderly manner, and sales are currently not under pressure. Downstream wait-and-see is just needed to follow up, and the melamine market is running strong.

Cost side: High price of raw material urea with strong cost support

Recently, the market price of raw material urea has risen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of urea on September 4th was 2678.33, which is 0.63% higher than that on September 1st (2661.67).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that current costs are high and companies are selling smoothly. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be stronger, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of August 31st, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black is 6025.00 yuan/ton. In August, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with limited price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced.

In August, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with the mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations was stable, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced. Price fluctuations were not significant, with downstream procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking was average. Manufacturers were mainly willing to offer discounts and take orders, with limited new orders.

Chemical Index: On August 29th, the chemical index stood at 921 points, an increase of 4 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 34.21% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 54.01% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China continued to rise in August, with a strong upward trend in the market. On August 31st, the average ex factory price of sulfur in the East China region was 1110.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.08% compared to the average ex factory price of 853.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

During the month, the sulfur market in the East China region operated strongly, with a significant increase in price trends. The main reason is that the terminal phosphate fertilizer industry has strong demand, high procurement enthusiasm, increased downstream operating rates, and increased demand for sulfur. The sulfur market has good trading direction, smooth refinery shipments, low inventory, and higher manufacturer quotations. However, downstream demand has been steadily following up, boosting the market atmosphere, and the impact of buying and rising sentiment has continued to rise in the sulfur market.

The downstream sulfuric acid market rose significantly in August, with a market price of 160.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 294.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 83.75% within the month. The operation of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers is supported, with stable market supply, high downstream product starts, and good demand support. In addition, with good foreign demand, the sulfuric acid market has a positive trading attitude, and the industry has a positive attitude, resulting in a significant upward trend in sulfuric acid prices.

The market of monoammonium phosphate rose significantly in August, with active stocking in the terminal industry. There were sufficient orders for monoammonium, and most manufacturers suspended their quotations. Cost support was positive, and downstream demand continued to follow. The market mentality was optimistic, and the focus of monoammonium transactions continued to shift upward. As of August 31, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3000.00 yuan/ton, which was 2633.00 yuan/ton compared to the average price on August 1, and the price increased by 13.92%.

In the future market forecast, sulfur analysts from Business Society believe that the sulfur plant is operating normally, manufacturers have no inventory pressure, downstream orders on the demand side are sufficient, and construction continues to be high. The downstream market continues to be bullish, with a positive attitude among the operators. The sulfur refinery is actively shipping, and with good demand support, it is expected that the sulfur market in the future may continue to be strong, with a slight slowdown in the upward trend. Specifically, we will observe the downstream acceptance of high prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam on August 1st was 12725 yuan/ton. On August 31st, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam was 12912 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of domestic caprolactam increased by 1.47%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic market price of caprolactam rose first and then fell this month. In early August, the market price of caprolactam increased. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, and cost support is strengthened. Under cost pressure, the spot price of caprolactam is pushing up with the raw material market. Partial equipment maintenance of caprolactam has resulted in a decrease in market availability, and downstream follow-up is required. In mid to late August, some maintenance devices for caprolactam were restored, and market supply increased. Downstream follow-up is slow, and demand performance is poor. Under loose supply conditions, the spot price of caprolactam began to decline. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, resulting in poor cost support. The downstream PA6 slicing market is weakening, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement has decreased. Caprolactam is operating under pressure. At the end of the month, the market supply decreased and the price of caprolactam slightly rebounded.

Raw material pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene has slightly increased this month, with prices gradually increasing. On August 1st, the price was 7447 yuan/ton; On August 31st, the price was at 7780 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.47% compared to the beginning of the month. This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 650 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are showing an upward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market, and pure benzene may continue to rise in the short term.

Downstream PA6 market. This month, the domestic PA6 market has been fluctuating, with prices rising in a narrow range. The overall monthly operating rate remains stable, with an average monthly load of around 77%, and the supply remains at an adequate level. At the end of the month, there is a wait-and-see atmosphere for terminal stocking, but the demand side is not positive enough. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term. As of August 31st, the average factory price of PA6 in China is 14050 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam analysts believe that some caprolactam units have undergone maintenance recently, resulting in a decrease in market supply. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, with cost support. Downstream follow-up is slow, with procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will stabilize and improve in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market experienced a downward trend in August 2023. The average price in the domestic market was 227160 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 213560 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 5.99%.

On August 29th, the base metal index was 1206 points, a decrease of 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.85% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

On August 29th, the tin commodity index was 107.44, a decrease of 2.82 points from yesterday, a decrease of 42.76% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 150.68% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that tin prices have risen for two consecutive months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that tin prices have been declining for four consecutive weeks recently, with a slight rebound at the end of August.

In the first half of August 2023, the tin ingot market operated weakly and overall declined. In the first half of the month, macro bearish factors were relatively concentrated, with China’s CPI declining by 0.3% year-on-year in July, inflation in the United States, and a decline in US stocks. The metal market is generally down due to the drag on prices. In terms of supply and demand, the supply of tin ingots is relatively loose, and most domestic manufacturers have made inventory reserves before the ban on mining, which will not affect tin ingot production in the short term. After entering August, Myanmar’s mining ban policy has been delayed in implementing specific measures, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. However, demand remains tepid, with the electronics industry and semiconductors consistently weak, and overall market expectations weak. The weak supply and demand situation has dragged down tin prices. With the passage of time, there has been an increase in news from Myanmar. According to comprehensive analysis of the domestic market, the real impact of Myanmar’s mining ban on the market may be after September. The increase in production of Yinman Mining and the increase in Indonesian imports may alleviate the market’s expectation of future supply. Overall, the supply and demand in the tin market are still weak, and the market sentiment is on the wait-and-see side. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future without the influence of external news. The recent market fluctuations will mainly follow macro factors, and the latest developments in Myanmar’s mining ban news will continue to be monitored in the future.

Related data:

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of tin ore sand and its concentrate in July 2023 was 30875 tons (equivalent to 7522 metal tons), an increase of 33.87% year-on-year and 42.63% month on month. Among them, the import volume from Myanmar in July was 26385 tons, an increase of 51.01% year-on-year and 62.90% month on month; Except for Myanmar, the total import volume from other countries in July was 4490 tons, an increase of 19.70% year-on-year and a decrease of 17.62% month on month. The quantity of imported tin ore sand and its concentrate from countries such as Myanmar, Russia, and Nigeria has increased to varying degrees, with Myanmar showing a significant increase of 62.90% or 10188 tons compared to the previous month.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in June 2023, global refined tin production was 29400 tons, consumption was 28400 tons, and there was an oversupply of 1000 tons. From January to June 2023, the global refined tin production was 171300 tons, with a consumption of 165800 tons and an oversupply of 5500 tons. In June 2023, the global tin ore production was 26100 tons. From January to June 2023, the global tin ore production was 152000 tons.

According to the market analysis system of the Business Society, in August, the market for hydrogen peroxide continued to rise, with an increase of up to 20%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1200 yuan/ton. On August 29th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1440 yuan/ton, an increase of 20%.

Lido’s hydrogen peroxide market continues to rise in August

Since August, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have not yet started up, and the supply is still tight. In addition, the market for caprolactam at the hydrogen peroxide terminal has risen, leading to an increase in orders for hydrogen peroxide. Supported by multiple positive factors, the hydrogen peroxide market has continued to soar. On August 7th, the daily increase exceeded 8%.

In the middle of the month, the supply side remained tight, and the hydrogen peroxide market once again saw a surge, with the average market price rising to around 1400 yuan/ton, an increase of over 18% compared to the beginning of the month.

At the end of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market has gradually stabilized and continued to operate at high levels, with prices rising to 1440 yuan/ton, a 20% increase from the beginning of the month.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that hydrogen peroxide supply is still tight in September, and the bullish outlook is still there. It is expected that the hydrogen peroxide market may rise in the future.

This week (8.21-8.28), the market for butadiene rubber continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11650 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.84% from last Monday’s 11440 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene continues to run at a high level, and the cost support of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continues; This week, the supply price of butadiene rubber increased by 200 yuan/ton, and merchants’ offers slightly increased.

This week (August 21- August 28), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants slightly increased.

This week (8.21-8.28), the price of raw material butadiene continued to run at a high level, and the cost of butadiene rubber continued to receive support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of butadiene was 7618 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07% from last Monday’s 7613 yuan/ton.

This week (8.21-8.28), the natural rubber market slightly rose, but the price difference with cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber gradually narrowed, which had a negative impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of natural rubber was 11940 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.84% from last Monday’s 11840 yuan/ton.

Recently, the tire production rate has remained stable, and the demand for rubber has remained stable. It is understood that as of late August 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province is 6.4% for all steel tires and around 7.2% for half steel tires.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the high raw material prices of butadiene rubber have support in terms of cost. This week, the production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, and the supply of butadiene rubber is slightly loose; Downstream tire construction is basically stable and requires support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; Overall, it is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will be relatively strong in the short term.