The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 24th, the price of DOTP was 11510 yuan/ton, a fluctuation increase of 1.86% compared to November 17th when the price of DOTP was 11300 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isooctanol has risen, PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost impact, combined with the rise in plasticizer prices, has led to a volatile increase in DOTP prices this week.

PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the PTA price on November 24th was 5825.70 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.33% compared to the price of 6026.50 yuan/ton on November 17th. PTA devices have restarted more, PTA supply has increased, downstream polyester manufacturers have resumed production, PTA demand is average, crude oil prices have fluctuated and decreased, PTA costs have decreased, and PTA prices have weakened and fluctuated this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased this week. As of November 24th, the quoted price of isooctanol was 11380 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.89% compared to the quoted price of 11280 yuan/ton on November 17th. Isooctanol manufacturers are actively shipping, with low inventory and rising prices. Downstream plasticizer companies are increasing production, leading to a rebound in demand for isooctanol. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen this week.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen this week, isooctanol prices have fluctuated and risen, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP has stabilized; The plasticizer market is generally rising, and the demand for plasticizer DOTP is rebounding. Overall, raw materials have stopped falling and risen, the plasticizer market has generally risen, and the demand for DOTP has rebounded. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China continued to rise in mid November. On November 20th, sulfur prices were at 1050 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.25% compared to 970 yuan/ton on November 11th, and an increase of 11.31% compared to the beginning of the month.

During the cycle, the sulfur market in East China was relatively strong and upward, mainly due to the increase in the construction of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market, and the increasing purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories and traders. In addition, the operation of refinery units was weak, and the supply of goods was not sufficient. The downstream procurement atmosphere was good, and manufacturers’ shipments were smooth. The refinery quotation was firm and upward. As of the 20th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong refineries was around 1050-1080 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur ranges from 1020 to 1150 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

Downstream sulfuric acid prices rose significantly in mid November, with an average domestic sulfuric acid price of 298 yuan/ton on November 20th, an increase of 10.37% compared to the price of 270 yuan/ton on November 11th. The maintenance of some enterprise equipment on site has led to a tightening of sulfuric acid supply, active procurement in the fertilizer industry, good demand performance, smooth shipment by acid companies, and a significant increase in the focus of transactions in the sulfuric acid market.

In mid November, the high level of monoammonium phosphate market remained stable, and the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate remained at 3466 yuan/ton during the cycle. The winter storage market follows up as needed, and the monoammonium phosphate factory executes pre received orders. The enterprise has sufficient waiting orders, and the prices of raw material phosphate ore and sulfur have increased. Cost support is good, and the monoammonium phosphate market is operating at a high price.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the operation of sulfur refining plants is normal, there is no pressure on market supply, downstream purchasing is active, and demand support is positive. Manufacturers have an optimistic attitude and maintain active shipments. It is expected that the sulfur market will narrow down and rise in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated and rose this week (11.10-11.17). The average market price last weekend was 210860 yuan/ton, and this weekend it was 212810 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.92%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has recently seen more declines and less gains.

In terms of the futures market, the overall trend of tin prices this week was somewhat volatile, with the overall trend mostly following the fluctuations of the macro market. On the supply side, the import of tin ore continues to decline, but the impact on domestic enterprises is relatively small. Currently, the operating rate of smelters is generally stable. However, with the increase of imported tin ingot sources, the overall supply of domestic tin ingots is relatively stable. In terms of demand, downstream performance is still weak, and the overall expectation of solder demand is still weak. Most consumer terminals maintain a wait-and-see attitude, actively go to the warehouse, and maintain the principle of replenishing raw materials according to demand. Overall, with limited changes in the supply and demand side of tin and no significant improvement in terminal demand expectations, it is expected that the tin ingot market will continue to operate steadily, with a focus on the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the market in the near future.

On November 19th, the non-ferrous index stood at 1109 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 82.70% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were five commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 46th week of 2023 (11.13-11.17) commodity price rise and fall list, with silver (3.97%), copper (1.29%), and lead (1.15%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are a total of 15 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being dysprosium metal (-3.69%), dysprosium iron alloy (-3.14%), and nickel (-3.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.96%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market maintained a slight decline this week (November 13-17). As of November 17, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% compared to the beginning of the week.

The obvious negative sentiment of the US crude oil inventory accumulation continues to ferment, coupled with market concerns about the economic and energy demand prospects, causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate and decline. As of November 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $72.90 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $77.42 per barrel. However, the PTA market is favored by domestic and foreign macro atmosphere, and related commodities such as PX and ethylene glycol have seen significant increases, leading to a rebound in PTA prices. Superimposed by strong sea winds, ports in Beilun, Zhenhai, and other areas in Zhejiang Province have been closed due to strong winds, which may affect some logistics transportation. PTA prices have increased by 2.68% this week.

Downstream yarn factories are operating steadily, and overall sales are weak. Inventory pressure increases, inventory accumulation speed is faster, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude towards polyester staple fibers. The purchasing intention decreases, and on-demand procurement is the main focus. In terms of price, some specifications have experienced a decline in prices, with the average price of pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region at 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the beginning of the week. The current textile industry has entered a seasonal off-season, with some end product inventory being high and terminal textile orders scarce. It is expected that inventory will increase to a certain extent, and it is inevitable to reduce production or promote sales.

Analysts from Business Society believe that driven by the strength of PTA, the atmosphere of the polyester staple fiber market has improved, and factories have an intention to increase prices. However, due to the weak demand side, the increase is weak. At the same time, a set of polyester short fiber maintenance device increased the load during the week, resulting in an increase in supply. Under the weak supply and demand situation, the price of polyester short fiber is still mainly weak in operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is slowly following up. From November 8th to 15th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 16183 yuan/ton to 16250 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.41% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 2.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.11%. The overall market quotation pace is slowly improving, and spot transactions are slowly following up. As prices rise, some shipments are willing to increase, and the market follow-up atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a slow overall push. The demand side is slowly following up, with some just needed orders still remaining and transactions. The overall market support is relatively obvious, and the market is digesting social inventory.

On the supply side, the 600000 ton/year device at the Shanghai MDI factory began maintenance on November 16th, with distillation shutdown for about two weeks, and synthesis maintenance until mid December. Chongqing MDI Factory’s 400000 ton/year device year-end storage and maintenance plan. In addition, there are rumors in the market that the Ningbo factory has maintenance plans in mid November. As well as the 80000 ton/year plant of Dongcao Ruian, due to the maintenance of the mother liquor plant in Japan, the output ratio has decreased, and the transportation of the mother liquor has been greatly affected, affecting the production of its Dongcao Ruian distillation unit. Overall, the domestic supply has significantly shrunk, while the foreign supply is expected to remain, and there may be a possibility of import supply filling. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene, the domestic pure benzene market continues to be weak, and the crude oil futures market is weak, leading to a downward revision of the main enterprise listing. As of November 15th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society is 7685.50 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market continues to rise, and transportation is limited in the north due to weather conditions. Currently, the inventory pressure of aniline factories is relatively low. As of November 15th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society is 12725.00 yuan/ton. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the overall performance of the downstream building materials industry has declined, and the overall follow-up is not as good as in the early stage. However, the performance of the refrigerator and household appliances, formaldehyde free panels, and automotive industries is still good, and the market is slow to follow up, with limited driving force. The focus is on just following up. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, with the current situation of supply and maintenance shrinking, the overall market support still exists, but the downstream follow-up force is relatively average. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregated MDI market will be mainly organized in a narrow range.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly increased this week. The sulfuric acid price has increased from 262.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2700.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.05%, and the weekend price has decreased by 26.23% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm increases

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 946.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 970.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.46%. Over the weekend, prices have decreased by 28.85% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream monoammonium phosphate market has seen a significant increase, with market prices rising from 3200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3466.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 8.33%, and a year-on-year increase of 13.66% over the weekend. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 17300.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 8.58% year-on-year. The downstream market has significantly increased, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to late November, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate has significantly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of November 10th, the spot nickel quotation was 142850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 29.26%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 9 times and risen 2 times, and the recent decline in nickel prices is still unstoppable.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, the Chairman of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve stated that if necessary, more measures will be taken on interest rates, without discussing interest rate cuts; The Chairman of the Chicago Fed stated that the primary task of changing interest rates is to address inflation progress; The Chairman of the Dallas Fed stated that inflation is still too high. China’s exports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year in October, while imports increased by 3%. The PPI of the Eurozone decreased by 12.4% year-on-year in September.

On the supply side, multiple institutions have given predictions that the surplus of primary nickel will continue to exceed 200000 tons next year. In October 2023, the total domestic refined nickel production was 23355 tons, an increase of 0.82% month on month and 49.48% year on year; From January to October 2023, the cumulative production of refined nickel in China reached 198122 tons, an increase of 36.17% year-on-year. At present, the equipment production capacity of domestic refining nickel enterprises is 28667 tons, the operating capacity is 26667 tons, the operating rate is 93.02%, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.47%.

In terms of demand, the consumption of ternary precursors is poor, resulting in a decrease in production scheduling. In November, the domestic crude stainless steel production was 2.959 million tons, a decrease of 9.42% month on month and 5.88% year on year. Among them, the 300 series production was 1.405 million tons, a decrease of 10.31% month on month and 12.23% year on year.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined nickel imports in September were 5542.97 tons, a decrease of 19% month on month and 42% year-on-year. Russia is the top supplier, importing 2909 tons from Russia that month, a decrease of 14.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. From January to September this year, a total of 69984 tons of refined nickel were imported, a decrease of 39.5% compared to the same period last year.

In summary, Federal Reserve officials spoke with a hawkish tone, coupled with the weak nickel fundamentals that have not yet improved. Recently, there have been signs of depletion of LME inventory, but in the early stage, the decline of Lunni was rapid, and the domestic nickel valuation was relatively high. The recent appreciation of the RMB has put pressure on domestic nickel. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will continue to fluctuate and operate weakly.

Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda has continued to decline since mid October and has rebounded this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price in the Shandong market was 822 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price in the Shandong market was around 836 yuan/ton, with an overall price increase of 1.7%. On November 8th, the chlor alkali index was 1025 points, a decrease of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 51.83% from the cycle’s highest point of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 43.96% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

Market aspect

According to data from Business News Agency, the domestic liquid alkali market prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Mainly because the inventory of maintenance caustic soda enterprises has decreased, and most caustic soda enterprises have increased their prices. Mainstream prices in the domestic market: The mainstream market prices for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali in Shandong region are around 780-850 yuan/ton, the mainstream market prices for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali in Henan region are around 2850-3000 yuan/ton (converted to 100%), and the mainstream market prices for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali in Zhejiang region are around 780-860 yuan/ton.

On the supply side

From a supply perspective, there have been many maintenance companies recently, resulting in a narrowing of the supply side and a slight easing of the pressure on caustic soda supply.

 
In terms of demand

Data shows that the recent operating rate of alumina plants is around 80%, and the operating rate of adhesive short fibers is around 77%. The downstream pressure phenomenon has been alleviated, and the demand for caustic soda in the downstream is slightly better than before. The purchasing enthusiasm has slightly increased, and the price of caustic soda has increased.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, domestic liquid alkali prices have stopped falling and rebounded, some devices have been repaired, and the pressure on enterprises has slowed down. Downstream demand is more positive than before. Overall, it is expected that the future trend of caustic soda prices may be mainly upward, depending on downstream market demand.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 8, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 8100 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to early November. Compared to October 1 (propylene glycol reference price 8466), the price was reduced by 366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.33%.

Looking back on October, the domestic propylene glycol market can be described as “not yet in the silver decade, but encountering a cold winter”. In October, the propylene glycol market continued to move towards low levels amidst fluctuations. Entering November, the market situation has reached a low point in the early stage, and the profit of propylene glycol has been continuously narrowing. Therefore, although the current demand is still average, some propylene glycol manufacturers and suppliers are not willing to continue to lower prices, and have a strong desire for stability and growth. However, without obvious positive support, the market is difficult to rise, and the overall market has entered a stage of weak stability and consolidation. As of November 8th, the domestic propylene glycol market price has entered the range of 7900-8300 yuan/ton.

A brief analysis of the current supply and demand situation of propylene glycol:

On the supply side: Currently, there are devices in the propylene glycol field that are still undergoing maintenance, but due to weak demand, the overall supply of propylene glycol is still relatively loose, and the pace of shipment is slow, resulting in a stalemate in supply and demand transmission.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand for propylene glycol is showing signs of looseness, with limited support from the demand side to the market. New inquiries on the market have followed up coldly, while downstream orders are mainly bought and used, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

Analysis of the Future Market of Propylene Glycol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic propylene glycol market is light. Although the slight rebound in the raw material side has provided a slight boost to the cost support of propylene glycol, the demand side has always constrained the market, and there is still some bearish sentiment on the market. The propylene glycol data analyst of the business company believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 30th to November 6th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 9275 yuan/ton to 9516 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.60% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 9.26%, and a year-on-year increase of 33.16%.

The domestic butadiene market has slightly increased. Some early maintenance devices have been restarted one after another, and there has been a slight increase in port inventory. The spot supply has slightly increased, but the factory prices of production enterprises have been strongly pushed up, making it difficult to find low-priced goods in the market. The downstream synthetic rubber industry is still operating well, with some support from the demand side. With some bidding sources increasing prices and transactions, the market price of butadiene continues to rise.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and sorted out. As of the close on November 3rd, the international crude oil futures prices have closed down, with the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract at 84.89 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.96 US dollars or 2.3%. The strong performance of the US dollar will have a certain inhibitory effect on oil prices. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply tension has not improved, mainly due to concerns in the Middle East region, and the risk of oil supply has not yet been lifted. The demand side will be dragged down by the economic outlook. The future game between supply and demand will intensify. Overall, oil prices will remain high and volatile in the near future, and the amplitude may continue to expand.

In terms of naphtha, the domestic naphtha market is weak and has been sorted out. As of November 6th, the benchmark price of Shangshang Society’s naphtha is 7939.00 yuan/ton. The gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, and the restructuring lacks substantial benefits. A small amount of demand for ethylene cracking has been released, and the overall demand for naphtha terminals is weak. Trading is sluggish, and refineries are reducing prices for shipments. The cost of butadiene is mixed.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises, Sinopec, and various sales companies have raised the price of butadiene by 200 yuan/ton to 9600 yuan/ton. The 64000 ton/year butadiene extraction unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal has been operating steadily, with a small amount of goods available for export. The price has been reduced by 150 yuan/ton to 8950 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, although the downstream Ineos Benling 600000 tons/year ABS device is put into operation, the total production capacity of the ABS industry has increased to 7.705 million tons/year. However, due to the load reduction and shutdown of devices such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Huizhou Li Changrong, the capacity utilization rate of the SBS industry decreased by 7.41 percentage points month on month. The demand side of butadiene is influenced by bearish factors.

On November 3rd, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $1025- $1035 per ton; The Chinese CFR report is between $1055 and $1065 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $745-755 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 695-705 euros per ton.

According to future predictions, the short-term trend of the domestic butadiene market is still relatively strong, which is mainly boosted by supply side news. With the support of high supplier prices, it is difficult for the market to have a batch of low-priced goods to supplement. However, profits in some downstream industries are under pressure, and market transactions also suppress the market. Business Society butadiene analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market may enter a stalemate and consolidation stage.