According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 4th to December 11th, 2023, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fluctuated and declined. Last week, it was at 7066.67 yuan/ton, while this week it was 6700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.19%.

On December 8th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.23 per barrel, with an increase of $1.89 or 2.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 75.84 yuan/barrel, an increase of 1.79 US dollars or 2.4%. Prediction: In the short term, oil prices may still face downward pressure. In the medium term, OPEC+will continue to play its role in stabilizing oil prices and regulating the market. There is also data indicating a decrease in OPEC+11 production, marking the first monthly decline recorded since July. In the medium term, it is not ruled out that OPEC+will continue to deepen its production reduction policy. The future supply-demand game will continue. Increased probability of wide range fluctuations in oil prices

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been lowered twice in December, with a cumulative decrease of 400 yuan/ton. The listed price of Sinopec pure benzene continues to be implemented at 6800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6700 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6653 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6700 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On December 4th, the price of pure benzene was 6867 yuan/ton, and on Friday (December 8th), the price of pure benzene was 6703 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.58% from last week and an increase of 3.12% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the overall decline of the pure benzene industry chain this week, with continuous decline in crude oil throughout the week, has dragged down the market mentality of the industry chain. Coupled with the continuous news of maintenance in the downstream, the market’s future demand expectations have overall declined. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the pure benzene market has been under pressure and the main flow of the hydrogenated benzene market has followed suit.

This week, the mainstream of the pure benzene market has declined. Sinopec lowered its listing price to 6800 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in the main production area has also been lowered to 6600-6800 yuan/ton. This week, due to the decline in profits, some companies underwent maintenance, and the overall operating rate slightly declined, but there is still a need for essential goods. Overall, the pure benzene industry chain is still operating weakly, with weak market expectations. In terms of demand, some downstream devices will be shut down during the week, and the market expects more devices to have maintenance or shutdown plans in the future. The market expects weak demand in the future. Overall, the pure benzene industry chain is still operating weakly, with weak market expectations. In the future, market bearishness is expected to emerge, and it is expected that the pure benzene industry chain will be under pressure in the future, with a stable and weak market operation.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7550.00 yuan/ton this week. The current price has increased by 0.67% compared to the previous month, and the current price has decreased by 18.16% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has stabilized this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past three months, and the market has remained stable this week. The available supply of potassium chloride in the cost side market is limited, and the price of potassium chloride in the market is fluctuating and consolidating. Downstream demand remains low, and the potassium carbonate market is consolidating. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7300-7500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated: 60% of the port’s large red particles are priced at around 3000-3150 yuan/ton, and 62% of the border trade’s Russian white potassium is priced at around 2850 yuan/ton, with prices temporarily stable. The domestic potassium chloride market has a large supply of imported goods, and it is expected that the potassium chloride market will be weak and consolidate in the future.

Recently, domestic potassium chloride prices have fallen, and cost support has been poor. Downstream demand for essential procurement is maintained, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

In December, the market situation of butyl acrylate improved, with a higher focus. Firstly, demand is weak, and the price of butyl acrylate has increased significantly. This is mainly due to the unexpected increase in upstream raw material prices of butanol and octanol, which has boosted the cost of butyl acrylate manufacturers and greatly boosted market confidence. As a result, the low market supply has improved, and the quotation has also increased. As of Thursday, the market price of butyl acrylate in East China is based on 9800-11200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton compared to the end of last month.

The price of upstream acrylic acid rebounded from a low level and stabilized, mainly due to the easing of supply shortages in the Shandong propylene market and the impact of crude oil decline. Recently, the market price has experienced a certain decline. In addition, the demand for downstream water reducing agents of acrylic acid, resin SAP and other industries is average, and the market will tend to operate stronger.

In addition, the trend of the ethyl acrylate market is stable, and the market atmosphere is mostly wait-and-see. Downstream users mainly buy small orders in the market. However, due to the rise of related products such as butyl acrylate, the market price has also been relatively strong recently.

From the current profit situation of the industrial chain, it can be seen that butyl acrylate continues to suffer losses. Although the price of butyl acrylate has increased this week, due to the significant increase in raw material prices, the loss of butyl acrylate has increased compared to the end of last month, and the factory is still maintaining its price. Therefore, although the market has limited trading volume due to high prices, there are not many sources of goods in the market, and there is support from cost factors. Therefore, the short-term market for butyl acrylate may still be strong.

Overall, the current rise in the acrylic and ester markets is mainly affected by the rise in raw materials, with downstream seasonal demand weakening and overall industry production declining. But currently, with some products experiencing continuous losses and no significant improvement, the overall industry lacks confidence in the future. It is expected that the market price of butyl acrylate will continue to fluctuate mainly based on the trend of raw material prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of aniline has slightly increased this month, and the price has remained stable in the middle and late stages, with a significant decrease starting at the end of the month. On November 1st, the market price of aniline was 11650 yuan/ton; On November 30th, the price was 11900 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month increased by 2.14% compared to the beginning of the month and 14.87% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of raw materials, the overall pure benzene market has declined this month, with prices gradually decreasing. 1、 Crude oil has seen a broad decline, but the cost side is insufficient. 2、 The arbitrage window of Asia US has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is low, resulting in a low import volume of pure benzene in November. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is insufficient. 3、 The downstream profit level is poor, and the price of styrene is in a downward trend, with a relative decrease of 3.34% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 7913 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, the price was 7196 yuan/ton, which decreased by 9.06% compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 9.99% compared to the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid has slightly increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 2083 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 2200 yuan/ton. The price increased by 5.61% compared to the beginning of the month and decreased by 8.94% compared to the same period last year.

In November of this year, the price of aniline significantly increased, with a strong increase in prices in the first half of the year. The market has a strong bullish atmosphere, with smooth shipments from aniline factories. Currently, there is no pressure on inventory, and some factories are still undergoing maintenance, resulting in tight supply. The follow-up on the demand side is normal, and with the fulfillment of Wanhua’s maintenance plan last month, the market’s positive guidance is obvious. The maintenance equipment of the aniline factory is gradually operating normally, and the market supply is gradually increasing.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Pure benzene delivery at the end of the month saw a significant increase in port spot resources due to tight conditions, with small orders being the main form of supplementary orders. In the late trading session, spot buying fell back to 7200 yuan/ton. Shandong’s weekend refineries sold well at low prices, with most businesses looking bullish in the future. Shandong’s pure benzene was sold in large quantities.

There is still a possibility of a short-term decline in pure benzene, and the cost support for aniline is insufficient. In November, there was a strong bullish atmosphere in the aniline market, and there was no pressure on factory shipments. The quotation was actively raised. The fundamentals of aniline are relatively strong, and we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline units in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of new pentanediol dropped significantly in November, with the mainstream market price of new pentanediol dropping from 10525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9725.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.60%, and a year-on-year increase of 8.46% at the end of the month. On November 29th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 46.87, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 54.76% from the highest point in the cycle of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 8.87% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, mainstream distributors of new pentanediol have seen a significant decline in their quotes this month.

From a cost perspective, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell in November. The market price of isobutyraldehyde decreased from 8100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7300.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.88%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 17.11% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have fluctuated and fallen, and due to the impact of supply and demand, the support for the price of new pentanediol has weakened.

In the future, the overall trend of the new pentanediol market in mid to early December may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market is fluctuating and falling, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Business Society’s new pentanediol analyst believes that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of November 30, 2023, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5550 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton or 2.02% compared to the price on October 31, 2023 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5440 yuan/ton).

From the data monitoring of Business Society, it can be seen that in October, the domestic diethylene glycol market first fell and then rose, establishing its own market in the overall trend. The fundamental changes in diethylene glycol have been limited this month, and the overall market sentiment is average without clear guidance. In the first half of the month, the market was weak and volatile, with international crude oil falling one after another. The cost side provided limited support to the market, with some cargo concentrated at the port and port inventory increasing narrowly. However, the overall supply pressure is not high, and demand follow-up is relatively stable. However, the arriving cargo market is worried about an increase in supply, and the sentiment of operators is not high, resulting in weak and volatile markets. In the middle of the month, the market saw a narrow upward trend, with cargo arriving at the port in stages and a significant increase in port inventory. However, the overall supply pressure was not high, downstream demand remained flat, and the number of port shipments increased. The mentality of operators was mild, and the market saw a narrow upward trend. However, there was still a lack of upward momentum, and the space for price increases was limited; In the second half of the month, the market’s focus increased, and the concentrated arrival at the port ended. The subsequent arrival quantity was limited, and inventory decreased mainly. The sentiment of the industry gradually improved, and there was strong bullish sentiment on the market, causing market volatility to rise. As of the close on the 30th, spot prices in East China closed at 5610-5630 yuan/ton, while spot prices in South China closed at 5680-5690 yuan/ton.

Currently, the operation of domestic and foreign facilities is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see significant changes in port inventory. There is still some support on the supply side. From a demand perspective, the demand for downstream unsaturated resins and polyester markets may continue to remain stable, with limited expected incremental market demand. Business Society’s diethylene glycol analyst believes that the domestic diethylene glycol market may maintain a volatile trend in December, and the follow-up and maintenance of demand is the key to market adjustment. In addition, attention should also be paid to the impact of macro factors.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda first fell and then rose in November, with an overall upward trend. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2460 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2580 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.88%, a decrease of 2.2% compared to the same period last year. On November 29th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 125.13, an increase of 2.05 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.83% from the highest point of 189.10 points in the cycle (2021-11-07), and an increase of 98.15% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of soda ash has been running strong this month. Currently, pure alkali in East China is operating steadily, with a mainstream market price of around 2500-2800 yuan/ton for light pure alkali. The operation of caustic soda in North China is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price for light caustic soda is around 2550-2700 yuan/ton. Currently, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is around 380000 tons.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of glass is weak this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 23.09 yuan/square meter, and at the end of the month, the average price was 21.67 yuan/square meter. During the month, the price decreased by 6.15%. From a regional perspective, the trading situation in the glass spot market in Shahe, North China is average, with a slight decrease in market prices, which is beneficial for enterprises to reduce inventory. Overall, inventory has decreased. The market trading situation in the East China region is relatively light, with downstream demand for goods and a slight decrease in enterprise inventory. The overall production and sales in the central region of China are still good, and the decrease in enterprise prices has stimulated downstream purchases, resulting in a rapid decline in factory inventory.

Business Society analysts believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, the price of soda ash has remained strong this month. Recently, the production of soda ash has remained at around 84%, with a short-term reduction in production. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and there is a supply-demand game between upstream and downstream. Overall, it is expected that the price of soda ash will continue to remain strong in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the focus of the domestic NMP market continued to shift downwards in November, with an increased decline. At the beginning of November, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 14733 yuan/ton. On November 29th, the average price was 13000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.76%.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of November 29th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ November 29th

East China region/ 12500-135000 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 13500-13500 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 13000-135000 yuan/ton

In November, the domestic NMP market continued to decline, and as of the 29th, the mainstream retail price for electronic grade NMP in China was 12500-135000 yuan/ton. The price of raw material BDO has fluctuated and fallen, weakening cost support. The demand side of NMP remains weak, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Insufficient follow-up on the demand side, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and a focus on just needs. The NMP factory on the production side remains stable, with a weak mentality and prices following the market trend. The market is still in a downward trend.

In November, the domestic BDO market stabilized first and then fell. As of November 29th, the average price of domestic BDO has dropped from 10157 yuan/ton to 9636 yuan/ton, with a 5.2% decline in prices during the cycle. Cost support has further weakened, leading to an increase in the decline in NMP.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the downstream follow-up of NMP prices is slow, and the market’s positive signals are weak. Currently, NMP is close to the bottom, and there is limited room for further decline. It is expected that NMP prices will consolidate and operate at a low level in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5150.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%.

Upstream methanol situation: In November, the domestic methanol market was weak and consolidated, with weak coal prices and insufficient cost support. Although there was an expectation of a reduction in imports in December, overall imports remained at a high level, and supply side pressure remained. The total supply of methanol in the market is sufficient, and the downstream has entered the traditional off-season. For methanol, the main demand is for purchasing and the price is significantly reduced. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the domestic methanol market has been mainly fluctuating downward, with poor cost support. Downstream demand remains strong, and analysts from Shengyishe Polyformaldehyde predict that prices may slightly decline.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 17th to November 24th, 2023, the domestic ex factory price of coal tar slightly increased, with a price of 4417.5 yuan/ton on the 24th and 4350 yuan/ton on the 17th, an increase of 1.55 yuan.

From the monthly K-bar chart of coal tar, it can be seen that after entering 2023, the coal tar market has experienced more decline and less increase, with significant increases and decreases from January to May, and relatively small fluctuations in June and July. On a monthly basis, the market saw a broad decline of 19.37% in January, followed by a brief 13% rebound in February. In March, prices fell sharply again by 15.2%, and in April, the decline continued to expand to 36.91%. In May, the market rebounded significantly by 32%. The market performance in June and July was relatively stable, but after entering August, the market fluctuated greatly, with overall gains and losses. From September to October, the market maintained a narrow range of volatility, with five consecutive weeks of decline in mid October and a slight increase this week.

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of price trend candlestick to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations.

Supply: The overall operating rate of coking enterprises has declined, and supply has contracted compared to the previous period

From 2022 to present, we can see from the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China that the overall operating rate of coking enterprises has recently declined. With the rise of raw material coking coal prices this week, the overall cost of entering the furnace for coking enterprises is relatively high. Under the influence of profits, some enterprises have actively limited production. Jiao enterprises have started a second round of price hikes, but under the mentality of supply and demand competition, it is difficult to implement, and the supply of tar is tight compared to the previous period.

Demand: The deep processing market is weak, and the market is mainly wait-and-see

From the price list of the deep processing industry we monitored in November, it can be seen that the prices of related commodities in the domestic deep processing industry have fluctuated this week, and market demand support is slightly weak. After November, three rounds of auction prices have all declined, except for this week when tar auction prices in some regions have slightly increased due to the tight supply of tar, while prices in some regions have remained stable or failed to sell. However, the fatigue in the downstream market has not significantly changed, and the overall demand support in the market is still slightly insufficient. Overall, there will be significant resistance to further upward movement in the future market. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the short term, with slight fluctuations being the main focus. The price trend of deep processing related commodities still needs to be closely monitored in the future.