1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride first fell and then rose in October. The price of potassium chloride first fell from 3000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2875.00 yuan/ton on October 18th, a decrease of 4.17%, and then rose to 3025.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.22%. On October 30th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 95.24, an increase of 0.8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 45.45% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and an increase of 63.50% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors fell first and then rose this month. The monthly terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is around 2800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, 62% of the white potassium in the port was around 2900-2950 yuan/ton, an increase of about 150 yuan/ton; 60% of the red particles in the port are around 2950-3000 yuan/ton, an increase of about 50 yuan/ton; Border trade of 62% Russian white potassium is around 2850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The potassium chloride port has a storage capacity of approximately 3.2-3.3 million tons.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate has slightly decreased this month, from 7550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7420.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.72%. The price at the end of the month has decreased by 19.78% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this month, from 5550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5350.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.60%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 13.18% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and downstream manufacturers have a general enthusiasm for purchasing potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The trend of potassium chloride market in mid to early November may fluctuate slightly, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Winter storage is approaching, downstream agricultural demand is expected to increase, industrial demand is average, and potassium chloride prices may fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.68% compared to the price on October 1st.

In October, the market price of epichlorohydrin mainly fell, while the market price rose at the end of the month. After the Double Festival, there is some support for the cost side, with downstream consumption of inventory raw materials as the main source. The enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is not high, and the shipment pressure on the holder is under pressure. Some enterprises are offering profits to ship, resulting in a downward focus in market negotiations. In the second half of the month, the production capacity utilization rate on the supply side was around 50%, but the demand side performance was still insufficient. The main downstream epoxy resin market was weak, with consumption contracts and inventory being the main factors. Small orders were needed to follow up when buying for bargains. The mentality of the industry was insufficient, with an increase in low-priced supply sources. In the second half of the month, the industry’s production capacity utilization rate was low. In addition, some downstream factories entered the market to replenish goods, and the supply side inventory was not pressurised. The downstream mentality was still cautious, with small orders and demand being the main factors.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on October 27th, the reference price for propylene was 6988.25, a decrease of 3.89% compared to October 1st (7270.75).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on October 27th, the reference price of epoxy resin was 13933.33, a decrease of 8.13% compared to October 1st (15166.67).

Analysts from Business Society’s epichlorohydrin believe that there is currently some support in the supply side, and downstream mentality is cautious. The market trading atmosphere is average, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may operate steadily in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash was weak in October. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 3090 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 2550 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 17.48%, a decrease of 4.14% compared to the same period last year. On October 26th, the light soda ash commodity index was 130.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 30.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 107.08% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of soda ash was weak this week. Currently, the operation of soda ash in the East China region is stable, and the mainstream market quotation for light soda ash is around 2600-2800 yuan/ton. The operation of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market quotation for light soda ash is around 2500-2700 yuan/ton. The operating rate of caustic soda is currently around 88%.

In terms of demand: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the spot price of glass is weak this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 23.41 yuan/square meter, while at the end of the month, the average price was 23.31 yuan/square meter. During the month, the price decreased by 0.43%. From a regional perspective, the trading situation in the glass spot market in Shahe, North China is average, with manufacturers mainly relying on flexible shipping, and enterprise inventory has increased. The market trading situation in the East China region is relatively good, with downstream demand for goods and a decrease in enterprise inventory. The overall production and sales in the central China region are average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is not as strong as last week. The inventory of manufacturers has slightly increased, and the market transactions are relatively flexible. The production and sales situation of glass in South China is still good, and the middle and downstream markets are just in need of restocking, leading to a decrease in enterprise inventory. The production and sales in the southwest region are average, with a slight decrease in inventory. The glass market in the northwest region is average, and enterprise inventory has slightly increased. The market situation in the Northeast region is average, with no significant changes in inventory.

Analysts from the Business Society believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, the price of soda ash has been operating weakly this month. The overall price trend of domestic soda ash is weak. Recently, there has been little change in the equipment of soda ash manufacturers, and it is expected to maintain a high level of construction. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, while upstream and downstream supply and demand are in a game. Market participants have a strong bearish attitude towards the future market. Overall, it is expected that the price of soda ash will continue to be weak and mainly operate in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 26th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7175.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

The melamine market is mainly stable this week. Recently, the price of raw material urea has risen, with strong cost support and fluctuations in some devices. The industry’s capacity utilization rate is around 60%. Enterprise owners mainly place early orders, and downstream companies need to follow up. Holders ship according to the market, and enterprise quotations are mostly stable and wait-and-see.

Upstream urea: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market rose on October 25th. On October 25th, the reference price of urea was 2553.33, a decrease of 0.07% compared to October 1st (2555.00). Recently, the cost has faced significant support from the melamine market.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that cost support still exists, and downstream purchases continue to be in demand. Market trading is orderly, and it is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis. More attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

This week (10.16-10.23), the market for chloroform fell. According to data from Business Society, as of October 23, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.10% from last Monday’s 3050 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have slightly decreased, while the cost center of trichloromethane has decreased; Downstream construction is temporarily stable, with on-demand inquiries for trichloromethane. Market transactions are flat, and trichloromethane enterprises have accumulated a small inventory, resulting in a slight decrease in factory prices.

In the recent period (10.16-10.23), the domestic methane chloride production has slightly decreased compared to the previous period. Some low load operating devices in the previous period have increased their load, and some enterprises have shut down for maintenance. The overall production rate is around 7.3%.

In the recent period (10.16-10.23), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have weakened, and the cost center of trichloromethane has decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 23, the spot price of methanol was 2435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.99% from last Monday’s 2510 yuan/ton. The price of raw material liquid chlorine has decreased, and as of the 23rd, the acceptance price of tank trucks was 300 yuan/ton, which is lower than last Monday’s 400 yuan/ton.

The overall operation of refrigerant R22 is stable, and in the short term, there are more inquiries on demand for trichloromethane. Support for trichloromethane has slightly weakened, and the total production quota of R22 has been reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. In the medium to long term, overall support for trichloromethane demand has weakened.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that both cost and demand support will weaken slightly in the short term, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the beginning of this week was 3433 yuan/ton, while the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the end of this week was 3416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%.

The domestic potassium sulfate market price continues to decline, and the price decline in the northern market is significant, basically forming a state of high at both ends and low in the middle. The production rate of processing type Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers is relatively high. Currently, the factory price of 52% Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is between 3200-3600 yuan/ton. Driven by agricultural demand, the potassium sulfate market price in the southern market is significantly higher than that in the northern market, and actual transactions are mainly negotiated based on a single order.

The autumn market has ended, and the winter storage market has started slightly slowly. In the early stage of the market, there was basically no obvious purchasing intention, and the downstream factory equipment operating rate was relatively low. With the rebound trend of raw material prices, the mentality of market participants has slightly changed, and the enthusiasm for inquiries has increased compared to the previous period.

Prediction: With the continuous concentration of supply and the release of positive news, market inquiries have improved, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market prices will mainly fluctuate and tend to be strong in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 2966.67 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 24.89% year-on-year. On October 15th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 77.73, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 40.08% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a high level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal intermediate is around 1360-1430 yuan/ton, with high prices consolidating and average cost support. The PVC market price slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5930.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5842.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.48%. Weekend prices fell by 7.00% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide has weakened. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In late October, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a high level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late October, with consolidation being the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream domestic market for neopentyl glycol dropped from 10475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10400.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.72%, and the weekend price increased by 2.97% year-on-year. On October 15th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 50.12, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 51.63% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 16.42% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol slightly decreased.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 9333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.93%, and the weekend price increased by 43.09% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of new pentanediol.

3、 Future prospects

In late October, the trend of the new pentanediol market may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to data monitored by Business Society, domestic carbon black has been operating steadily at a high level this week. On October 13th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 11400 yuan/ton

Cost side: The coal tar market price has slightly increased this week, with high level consolidation and operation being the main focus. Downstream enterprises have a good atmosphere of restocking after holidays, and there is a strong atmosphere of speculation on the market. The supply of coal tar market is relatively tight. As of now, the domestic price of coal tar market is 5140 yuan/ton. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises have strong quotations, providing strong support for carbon black cost side.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and currently the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is not high, resulting in a tight overall supply.

In terms of terminals, downstream enterprises have a relatively high level of operation, and tire shipments are relatively smooth. In terms of demand, supported by strong export orders, the tire industry has been operating at a high level recently. The strong demand in the tire industry has provided strong support for the upward trend of carbon black, and the demand side is driven by an atmosphere of buying up and not buying down. The entry into the market for purchasing is relatively positive, and the overall trading atmosphere is acceptable.

Overall, there are many positive factors in the current market, and it is expected that the short-term carbon black market will maintain a high level of operation, with a stronger consolidation operation. The future trend will focus on downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fluctuated and declined in September. From September 1st to 28th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 17516 yuan/ton to 16500 yuan/ton, with a 5.8% decrease in price during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 0.86%.

From late August to early September, some manufacturers’ prices were on the high side, but the market continued to experience high transmission barriers. The overall follow-up ability of the downstream market is weak, and the buying sentiment is relatively average. Traders are gradually lowering their prices to adapt to the market. In mid month, some sources of goods gradually filled in, while the demand side consumption capacity was slightly average, resulting in a slow decline in aggregated MDI prices. In the second half of the month, the market demand side follow-up was relatively average, and the price boost was relatively limited. Downstream demand was mainly concentrated, and traders remained in a market oriented state, patiently waiting for the demand side to follow up.

On the supply side, the domestic aggregate MDI production in September (as of the 27th) was 207200 tons, an increase of 31.2% compared to the previous month. 4. The MDI integration of Wanhua Chemical Yantai Industrial Park (mainly including 1.1 million tons/year of MDI and 300000 tons/year of TDI), petrochemical integration (mainly including 750000 tons/year of PDH and 760000 tons/year of PO/MTBE24/year), and related coordination devices began to be shut down for maintenance on August 15, 2023. As of September 27, the shutdown maintenance of the above-mentioned equipment has been completed and normal production has resumed. The overall supply has been supplemented. The supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market remained at a high level in September. In September, both pure benzene and styrene were in low inventory, coupled with an increase in terminal orders for gold, silver, and ten, as well as a demand for dual stocking in October. The market experienced a large-scale increase in the first half of September, and the demand for short orders to replenish during the increase further drove the rise of pure benzene, with prices hitting 9000 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Supported by the cost side in September, aniline first rose and then stabilized. Some factories have maintenance plans, with double section pre stocking and active downstream receiving. The short-term aggregation of MDI is influenced by favorable factors on the cost side.

On the demand side, as prices rise, the ability to follow up on the demand side is relatively limited. But as October approaches, there is a willingness to reserve some of the demand orders before the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, and there is a willingness to follow up with some in the market in the near future. Downstream of MDI, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of refrigerators from January to August 2023 was 65.11 million units, an increase of 17.4% year-on-year; The production of automobiles reached 17.987 million units, an increase of 3.52% year-on-year. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, with high cost support, the supply side benefits are gradually disappearing, and downstream demand is average. MDI analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.