1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of aniline has slightly increased this month, and the price has remained stable in the middle and late stages, with a significant decrease starting at the end of the month. On November 1st, the market price of aniline was 11650 yuan/ton; On November 30th, the price was 11900 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month increased by 2.14% compared to the beginning of the month and 14.87% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of raw materials, the overall pure benzene market has declined this month, with prices gradually decreasing. 1、 Crude oil has seen a broad decline, but the cost side is insufficient. 2、 The arbitrage window of Asia US has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is low, resulting in a low import volume of pure benzene in November. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is insufficient. 3、 The downstream profit level is poor, and the price of styrene is in a downward trend, with a relative decrease of 3.34% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 7913 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, the price was 7196 yuan/ton, which decreased by 9.06% compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 9.99% compared to the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid has slightly increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 2083 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 2200 yuan/ton. The price increased by 5.61% compared to the beginning of the month and decreased by 8.94% compared to the same period last year.

In November of this year, the price of aniline significantly increased, with a strong increase in prices in the first half of the year. The market has a strong bullish atmosphere, with smooth shipments from aniline factories. Currently, there is no pressure on inventory, and some factories are still undergoing maintenance, resulting in tight supply. The follow-up on the demand side is normal, and with the fulfillment of Wanhua’s maintenance plan last month, the market’s positive guidance is obvious. The maintenance equipment of the aniline factory is gradually operating normally, and the market supply is gradually increasing.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Pure benzene delivery at the end of the month saw a significant increase in port spot resources due to tight conditions, with small orders being the main form of supplementary orders. In the late trading session, spot buying fell back to 7200 yuan/ton. Shandong’s weekend refineries sold well at low prices, with most businesses looking bullish in the future. Shandong’s pure benzene was sold in large quantities.

There is still a possibility of a short-term decline in pure benzene, and the cost support for aniline is insufficient. In November, there was a strong bullish atmosphere in the aniline market, and there was no pressure on factory shipments. The quotation was actively raised. The fundamentals of aniline are relatively strong, and we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline units in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of new pentanediol dropped significantly in November, with the mainstream market price of new pentanediol dropping from 10525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9725.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.60%, and a year-on-year increase of 8.46% at the end of the month. On November 29th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 46.87, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 54.76% from the highest point in the cycle of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 8.87% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, mainstream distributors of new pentanediol have seen a significant decline in their quotes this month.

From a cost perspective, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell in November. The market price of isobutyraldehyde decreased from 8100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7300.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.88%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 17.11% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have fluctuated and fallen, and due to the impact of supply and demand, the support for the price of new pentanediol has weakened.

In the future, the overall trend of the new pentanediol market in mid to early December may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market is fluctuating and falling, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Business Society’s new pentanediol analyst believes that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of November 30, 2023, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5550 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton or 2.02% compared to the price on October 31, 2023 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5440 yuan/ton).

From the data monitoring of Business Society, it can be seen that in October, the domestic diethylene glycol market first fell and then rose, establishing its own market in the overall trend. The fundamental changes in diethylene glycol have been limited this month, and the overall market sentiment is average without clear guidance. In the first half of the month, the market was weak and volatile, with international crude oil falling one after another. The cost side provided limited support to the market, with some cargo concentrated at the port and port inventory increasing narrowly. However, the overall supply pressure is not high, and demand follow-up is relatively stable. However, the arriving cargo market is worried about an increase in supply, and the sentiment of operators is not high, resulting in weak and volatile markets. In the middle of the month, the market saw a narrow upward trend, with cargo arriving at the port in stages and a significant increase in port inventory. However, the overall supply pressure was not high, downstream demand remained flat, and the number of port shipments increased. The mentality of operators was mild, and the market saw a narrow upward trend. However, there was still a lack of upward momentum, and the space for price increases was limited; In the second half of the month, the market’s focus increased, and the concentrated arrival at the port ended. The subsequent arrival quantity was limited, and inventory decreased mainly. The sentiment of the industry gradually improved, and there was strong bullish sentiment on the market, causing market volatility to rise. As of the close on the 30th, spot prices in East China closed at 5610-5630 yuan/ton, while spot prices in South China closed at 5680-5690 yuan/ton.

Currently, the operation of domestic and foreign facilities is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see significant changes in port inventory. There is still some support on the supply side. From a demand perspective, the demand for downstream unsaturated resins and polyester markets may continue to remain stable, with limited expected incremental market demand. Business Society’s diethylene glycol analyst believes that the domestic diethylene glycol market may maintain a volatile trend in December, and the follow-up and maintenance of demand is the key to market adjustment. In addition, attention should also be paid to the impact of macro factors.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda first fell and then rose in November, with an overall upward trend. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2460 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2580 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.88%, a decrease of 2.2% compared to the same period last year. On November 29th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 125.13, an increase of 2.05 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.83% from the highest point of 189.10 points in the cycle (2021-11-07), and an increase of 98.15% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of soda ash has been running strong this month. Currently, pure alkali in East China is operating steadily, with a mainstream market price of around 2500-2800 yuan/ton for light pure alkali. The operation of caustic soda in North China is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price for light caustic soda is around 2550-2700 yuan/ton. Currently, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is around 380000 tons.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of glass is weak this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 23.09 yuan/square meter, and at the end of the month, the average price was 21.67 yuan/square meter. During the month, the price decreased by 6.15%. From a regional perspective, the trading situation in the glass spot market in Shahe, North China is average, with a slight decrease in market prices, which is beneficial for enterprises to reduce inventory. Overall, inventory has decreased. The market trading situation in the East China region is relatively light, with downstream demand for goods and a slight decrease in enterprise inventory. The overall production and sales in the central region of China are still good, and the decrease in enterprise prices has stimulated downstream purchases, resulting in a rapid decline in factory inventory.

Business Society analysts believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, the price of soda ash has remained strong this month. Recently, the production of soda ash has remained at around 84%, with a short-term reduction in production. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and there is a supply-demand game between upstream and downstream. Overall, it is expected that the price of soda ash will continue to remain strong in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the focus of the domestic NMP market continued to shift downwards in November, with an increased decline. At the beginning of November, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 14733 yuan/ton. On November 29th, the average price was 13000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.76%.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of November 29th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ November 29th

East China region/ 12500-135000 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 13500-13500 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 13000-135000 yuan/ton

In November, the domestic NMP market continued to decline, and as of the 29th, the mainstream retail price for electronic grade NMP in China was 12500-135000 yuan/ton. The price of raw material BDO has fluctuated and fallen, weakening cost support. The demand side of NMP remains weak, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Insufficient follow-up on the demand side, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and a focus on just needs. The NMP factory on the production side remains stable, with a weak mentality and prices following the market trend. The market is still in a downward trend.

In November, the domestic BDO market stabilized first and then fell. As of November 29th, the average price of domestic BDO has dropped from 10157 yuan/ton to 9636 yuan/ton, with a 5.2% decline in prices during the cycle. Cost support has further weakened, leading to an increase in the decline in NMP.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the downstream follow-up of NMP prices is slow, and the market’s positive signals are weak. Currently, NMP is close to the bottom, and there is limited room for further decline. It is expected that NMP prices will consolidate and operate at a low level in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5150.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%.

Upstream methanol situation: In November, the domestic methanol market was weak and consolidated, with weak coal prices and insufficient cost support. Although there was an expectation of a reduction in imports in December, overall imports remained at a high level, and supply side pressure remained. The total supply of methanol in the market is sufficient, and the downstream has entered the traditional off-season. For methanol, the main demand is for purchasing and the price is significantly reduced. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the domestic methanol market has been mainly fluctuating downward, with poor cost support. Downstream demand remains strong, and analysts from Shengyishe Polyformaldehyde predict that prices may slightly decline.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 17th to November 24th, 2023, the domestic ex factory price of coal tar slightly increased, with a price of 4417.5 yuan/ton on the 24th and 4350 yuan/ton on the 17th, an increase of 1.55 yuan.

From the monthly K-bar chart of coal tar, it can be seen that after entering 2023, the coal tar market has experienced more decline and less increase, with significant increases and decreases from January to May, and relatively small fluctuations in June and July. On a monthly basis, the market saw a broad decline of 19.37% in January, followed by a brief 13% rebound in February. In March, prices fell sharply again by 15.2%, and in April, the decline continued to expand to 36.91%. In May, the market rebounded significantly by 32%. The market performance in June and July was relatively stable, but after entering August, the market fluctuated greatly, with overall gains and losses. From September to October, the market maintained a narrow range of volatility, with five consecutive weeks of decline in mid October and a slight increase this week.

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of price trend candlestick to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations.

Supply: The overall operating rate of coking enterprises has declined, and supply has contracted compared to the previous period

From 2022 to present, we can see from the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China that the overall operating rate of coking enterprises has recently declined. With the rise of raw material coking coal prices this week, the overall cost of entering the furnace for coking enterprises is relatively high. Under the influence of profits, some enterprises have actively limited production. Jiao enterprises have started a second round of price hikes, but under the mentality of supply and demand competition, it is difficult to implement, and the supply of tar is tight compared to the previous period.

Demand: The deep processing market is weak, and the market is mainly wait-and-see

From the price list of the deep processing industry we monitored in November, it can be seen that the prices of related commodities in the domestic deep processing industry have fluctuated this week, and market demand support is slightly weak. After November, three rounds of auction prices have all declined, except for this week when tar auction prices in some regions have slightly increased due to the tight supply of tar, while prices in some regions have remained stable or failed to sell. However, the fatigue in the downstream market has not significantly changed, and the overall demand support in the market is still slightly insufficient. Overall, there will be significant resistance to further upward movement in the future market. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the short term, with slight fluctuations being the main focus. The price trend of deep processing related commodities still needs to be closely monitored in the future.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 24th, the price of DOTP was 11510 yuan/ton, a fluctuation increase of 1.86% compared to November 17th when the price of DOTP was 11300 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isooctanol has risen, PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost impact, combined with the rise in plasticizer prices, has led to a volatile increase in DOTP prices this week.

PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the PTA price on November 24th was 5825.70 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.33% compared to the price of 6026.50 yuan/ton on November 17th. PTA devices have restarted more, PTA supply has increased, downstream polyester manufacturers have resumed production, PTA demand is average, crude oil prices have fluctuated and decreased, PTA costs have decreased, and PTA prices have weakened and fluctuated this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased this week. As of November 24th, the quoted price of isooctanol was 11380 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.89% compared to the quoted price of 11280 yuan/ton on November 17th. Isooctanol manufacturers are actively shipping, with low inventory and rising prices. Downstream plasticizer companies are increasing production, leading to a rebound in demand for isooctanol. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen this week.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen this week, isooctanol prices have fluctuated and risen, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP has stabilized; The plasticizer market is generally rising, and the demand for plasticizer DOTP is rebounding. Overall, raw materials have stopped falling and risen, the plasticizer market has generally risen, and the demand for DOTP has rebounded. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China continued to rise in mid November. On November 20th, sulfur prices were at 1050 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.25% compared to 970 yuan/ton on November 11th, and an increase of 11.31% compared to the beginning of the month.

During the cycle, the sulfur market in East China was relatively strong and upward, mainly due to the increase in the construction of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market, and the increasing purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories and traders. In addition, the operation of refinery units was weak, and the supply of goods was not sufficient. The downstream procurement atmosphere was good, and manufacturers’ shipments were smooth. The refinery quotation was firm and upward. As of the 20th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong refineries was around 1050-1080 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur ranges from 1020 to 1150 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

Downstream sulfuric acid prices rose significantly in mid November, with an average domestic sulfuric acid price of 298 yuan/ton on November 20th, an increase of 10.37% compared to the price of 270 yuan/ton on November 11th. The maintenance of some enterprise equipment on site has led to a tightening of sulfuric acid supply, active procurement in the fertilizer industry, good demand performance, smooth shipment by acid companies, and a significant increase in the focus of transactions in the sulfuric acid market.

In mid November, the high level of monoammonium phosphate market remained stable, and the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate remained at 3466 yuan/ton during the cycle. The winter storage market follows up as needed, and the monoammonium phosphate factory executes pre received orders. The enterprise has sufficient waiting orders, and the prices of raw material phosphate ore and sulfur have increased. Cost support is good, and the monoammonium phosphate market is operating at a high price.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the operation of sulfur refining plants is normal, there is no pressure on market supply, downstream purchasing is active, and demand support is positive. Manufacturers have an optimistic attitude and maintain active shipments. It is expected that the sulfur market will narrow down and rise in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated and rose this week (11.10-11.17). The average market price last weekend was 210860 yuan/ton, and this weekend it was 212810 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.92%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has recently seen more declines and less gains.

In terms of the futures market, the overall trend of tin prices this week was somewhat volatile, with the overall trend mostly following the fluctuations of the macro market. On the supply side, the import of tin ore continues to decline, but the impact on domestic enterprises is relatively small. Currently, the operating rate of smelters is generally stable. However, with the increase of imported tin ingot sources, the overall supply of domestic tin ingots is relatively stable. In terms of demand, downstream performance is still weak, and the overall expectation of solder demand is still weak. Most consumer terminals maintain a wait-and-see attitude, actively go to the warehouse, and maintain the principle of replenishing raw materials according to demand. Overall, with limited changes in the supply and demand side of tin and no significant improvement in terminal demand expectations, it is expected that the tin ingot market will continue to operate steadily, with a focus on the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the market in the near future.

On November 19th, the non-ferrous index stood at 1109 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 82.70% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were five commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 46th week of 2023 (11.13-11.17) commodity price rise and fall list, with silver (3.97%), copper (1.29%), and lead (1.15%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are a total of 15 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being dysprosium metal (-3.69%), dysprosium iron alloy (-3.14%), and nickel (-3.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.96%.