1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of January 5th, the spot nickel quotation was 126000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.1% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 45.17%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 10% and risen by 2% in the past 12 weeks, with nickel prices still showing a main decline in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On a macro level, following the announcement of the December interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve, market focus has shifted to the core US November PCE data released this Friday. The market is waiting for important data to be released in order to obtain new guidance, as the US dollar fluctuates.

In terms of supply, some enterprises have reduced production at a loss. In November, the national refined nickel production was 23000 tons, a decrease of 3.9% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 54.45%. The production of major overseas nickel companies in the first three quarters decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, mostly due to unexpected disturbances, with good profits and weak willingness to actively reduce production.

In terms of demand: Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for military and ship alloys, and inferior demand for civilian alloys. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable. Stainless steel inventory returned to a neutral level, and steel mills slightly resumed production in December. New energy basically does not require pure nickel. Last week, nickel prices fell significantly, and some downstream restocking during the Spring Festival was advanced.

In summary, nickel prices have continued to weaken, and downstream purchasing and stocking sentiment has increased. Some downstream stocking for the Spring Festival has been advanced, and social inventory has been depleted within the week; Production remains high and inventory continues to accumulate. Overall, the fundamentals continue to be weak with no new bearish sentiment, but there is also a lack of bullish sentiment. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to operate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market on January 1st was 833 yuan/ton, and on January 7th, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 796 yuan/ton. This week, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate market decreased by 4.40%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has fallen. Foreign orders are relatively low, domestic market demand is poor, downstream delivery capacity is weakened, and market bearish sentiment is strong. As of January 7th, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 750-800 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 785-870 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate believe that the recent trend in ammonium sulfate prices is weak. The supply side is relatively abundant, while the demand side takes less goods. The short-term market situation is currently not favorable, and it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be weak and mainly consolidating in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 17.82% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27666.67 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the month and an increase of 12.93% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After New Year’s Day, the domestic price of trichloromethane remained weak, falling by 2.58% during the week. The price of hydrofluoric acid continued to be weak, falling by 2.36% during the week. The continuous decrease in raw material costs did not suppress the R22 market price. Supported by the low inventory of enterprises with low quotas, the domestic R22 market price continued to remain strong this week.

This week, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices saw a slight decline, with a 2.36% drop within the week. The decrease in raw material costs did not suppress the domestic R134a price. Supported by low inventory of enterprises with quota bottoming out, the domestic R134a price continued to remain strong this week.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, downstream demand is stable, and the attitude of enterprises to support prices remains unchanged. In the short term, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain strong.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8100 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the average price on December 29th was 8230 yuan/ton, with a 1.6% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9137 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the average price on December 29th was 9082 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.60 during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8550 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the average price on December 29th was 8500 yuan/ton, with a 0.58% decrease in quotation during this period.

In December, the polyethylene market experienced ups and downs, with LLDPE showing a slightly sustained strong trend, while LDPE and HDPE showed a slight decline. The tense geopolitical situation, expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and rising international oil prices have to some extent supported the polyethylene market on the cost side. There are not many maintenance devices in the enterprise, and short maintenance is the main focus, with sufficient supply of polyethylene. The operating rate of downstream products is showing a downward trend, with a decrease in agricultural film operating rate and a slight increase in packaging film operating rate, mainly driven by holiday demand. Overall, downstream demand is weak, and procurement is relatively cautious. Traders adjust their offers and have a strong willingness to sell at a discounted price.

On December 29th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 8280 yuan, and the closing price was 8280 yuan, a decrease of 23 yuan. The highest price was 8299 yuan, and the lowest was 8255 yuan, a decrease of 0.28%. The trend of futures in December was relatively strong, driving up the spot price of polyethylene.

Linear products are driven by the strength of futures, with spot prices slowly and slightly rising, and the market trends of high-pressure and low-pressure products are weak; The demand for greenhouse film has decreased, and the demand for plastic film is slowly following up. The Spring Festival plastic film is gradually starting, and overall, the market demand in January is weak; Adequate supply side; It is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate weakly, with limited upward space.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On December 29th, the average market price in Henan region was 7700 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7700 yuan/ton on December 25th, and a decrease of 0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the ice crystal market continued to remain stable, with a slight decrease in upstream product prices and a decrease in ice crystal costs. However, the spot supply of raw materials is tight, and prices are still at a relatively high level. There is still cost support for ice crystal enterprises, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak. Purchasing is mainly based on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The ice crystal market is watching and operating. As of December 29th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7000 and 8700 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market has slightly decreased, with an average market price of 3531.25 yuan/ton on December 26th, a decrease of 0.35% compared to the price of 3543.75 yuan/ton on December 25th. The tight exploitation of upstream mines and the shortage of raw materials have restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, and some manufacturers have limited production. However, towards the end of the year, some small factories have engaged in low-priced inventory clearance behavior, resulting in poor fluorite sales and poor downstream procurement. On site prices have slightly decreased, weakening support for cryolite.

Market forecast: Ice crystal raw materials are tight, and cost pressure on ice crystal enterprises still exists. Ice crystal manufacturers mainly raise prices, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and they are more resistant to high priced ice crystal. However, at the same time, upstream prices are lowered, and downstream bearish sentiment is more. The downward momentum of ice crystal prices is increased, and it is expected that the ice crystal market will continue to decline, with slight price fluctuations. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of styrene in Shandong Province rose first and then fell in December. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8400.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8580.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%. The lowest point was on December 6th, with a price of 8175.00 yuan/ton. The current price has increased by 6.69% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

In December, the market price of styrene first fell and then rose. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly declining since October. This month, the market has been declining for three weeks and rising for one week, with the decline being greater than the increase. The main reason for the decline is the decline in international oil prices, poor cost support, a stalemate between supply and demand of styrene, slow transactions, and a continuous decline in the market. After the market bottomed out, it rebounded, but the magnitude was small and the upward trend was weak.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fell first and then rose in December, with a price of 6992 yuan/ton on December 1st; On December 30th, the price was 7222 yuan/ton. Recently, negotiations for pure benzene in East China have been active, with prices rising and traders actively shipping at high prices. Shandong Refinery has good transactions and inventory levels continue to be low. By the end of the week, after Shandong pure benzene rose to 7150 yuan/ton, transactions began to slow down, and some downstream and traders began to resist high prices.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in December. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9666 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9566.67 yuan/ton. The cost of PS is supported, and the market trading is average. It is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) price may mainly fluctuate and consolidate

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and fell in December. The average quote for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the month was 10076.00 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 10000.00 yuan/ton. In December, domestic EPS prices were affected by the decline in costs, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly experience a narrow range decline trend.

The domestic ABS market declined in December. In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, but recently, due to supply pressure, some enterprises have seen a decrease in load. But the decline in average operating rate is narrow, and the current industry load is still above 73%. The production of the enterprise is relatively stable, and the inventory position has decreased due to some new contracts. The improvement of the company’s loss situation is limited, and the supply pressure is relatively high.

At present, the restart of the styrene plant is greater than the maintenance, and there is an expectation of an increase in supply. However, due to the decline in international oil prices and poor cost support, the expected short-term volatility in the styrene market is mainly downward.

Recently (12.18-12.26), the market for dichloromethane has been fluctuating and consolidating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 26th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2427 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% from 2425 yuan/ton on December 18th; The low point within the cycle is 2360 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, the price of liquid chlorine continues to decline, and the cost center of dichloromethane shifts downwards; At present, there is not much inventory pressure on enterprises, but the purchasing willingness of terminals and merchants is low, the shipment volume of merchants is small, and the bearish atmosphere in the market is spreading. As of December 26th, the factory price of dichloromethane loose water has been adjusted narrowly, and as of December 26th, the mainstream factory price of dichloromethane loose water in Shandong region is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.18-12.26), the domestic methane chloride production has fluctuated narrowly. Jiangxi Liwen started to shut down for maintenance on December 17th and plans to restart soon.

Recently (12.18-12.26), the price of raw material methanol fluctuated narrowly, and the price of liquid chlorine continued to decline, resulting in weak cost support for dichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of December 26th, the spot price of methanol was 2465 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% from 2450 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the highest point in the cycle was 2505 yuan/ton. As of December 26th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around -100 yuan/ton, continuing to decline.

The domestic supply of methane chloride is still relatively loose, and the supply of domestic dichloromethane will continue to be loose after the restart of Jiangxi Liwen plant. In addition, downstream demand is weak. Although the inventory pressure of enterprises can still be borne, the bearish atmosphere in the market is becoming stronger, and enterprises are expected to gradually accumulate inventory.

Market forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business Society, the demand for dichloromethane is weak in the short term, while the supply is relatively loose, which has a bearish impact on the dichloromethane market. In addition, the lower raw material prices have weakened the cost support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the later period.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region rose first and then fell this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province rose from 12750.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12850.00 yuan/ton on December 20th, an increase of 0.78%, and then fell to 12775 yuan/ton on the weekend, a decrease of 0.58%. The overall increase was 0.20%. Weekend prices increased by 32.16% year-on-year. On December 25th, the isooctanol commodity index was 95.77, an increase of 1.84 points from yesterday, a decrease of 30.35% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 172.46% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand is average

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of Shandong isooctanol have seen fluctuations in their quotes this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market saw a slight increase this week, with prices rising from 6895.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6928.25 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.47%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.10% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price rose first and then fell this week. The DOP price dropped from 11850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11800 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.42%, and the weekend price increased by 17.76% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In late December, the market for isooctanol in Shandong may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has an upward trend, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

From December 18 to December 25, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly decreased, with prices this week at 81000 yuan/ton, up 0.62%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the antimony ingot market has been relatively stable.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has declined, and as of December 25th, the price remained stable at $11350 per ton. Currently, the market atmosphere is weak.

The antimony ingot market has remained relatively stable since October, with a slight rebound in prices this week, and a slight increase of about 500 yuan/ton in the spot market. The supply side has not changed much this week, and the supply at the mining end is still tight. However, this news has been basically digested, and its impact on the market is limited. With the recent stabilization of the market, the mentality of smelters to be reluctant to sell and raise prices has begun to increase. However, the tight supply at the mining end has not been improved, and the overall supply of antimony ingots is tight. In terms of demand, the downstream antimony oxide market has recently rebounded slightly, and the export situation has also improved to some extent compared to the previous period, driving the overall recovery of the raw material market. However, the downstream antimony oxide market still maintains procurement, providing strong demand support for the antimony ingot market. Overall, the supply of antimony ingots in the market is tight, with downstream rigid demand support. At the end of the year, some companies had a demand for funds to be withdrawn, and spot market trading slightly improved. However, without clear guidance from the spot market, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will continue to operate temporarily and steadily in the near future. We will pay attention to changes in downstream demand and the performance of overseas markets in the future.

This week, the antimony oxide market has slightly increased by about 500 yuan/ton following the trend of antimony ingots. Currently, the market is in a wait-and-see attitude, and overseas sales have slightly improved. Currently, antimony oxide enterprises are maintaining a rigid demand for antimony ingots, and it is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term.

On December 24th, the non-ferrous index was 1102 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.35% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 81.55% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 51st week of 2023 (12.18-12.22), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were aluminum (2.48%), silver (1.99%), and zinc (1.85%). There are a total of 10 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium metal (-3.06%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (-2.71%), and dysprosium oxide (-2.62%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.22%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7530.00 yuan/ton this week. The current price remains unchanged on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.25%.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has stabilized this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past three months, and the market has remained stable this week. Recently, the market price of potassium chloride has been fluctuating and consolidating. Downstream demand remains low, and the potassium carbonate market is consolidating. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7300-7500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated: 60% of the port’s large red particles are priced at around 3000-3150 yuan/ton, and 62% of the port’s white potassium prices are mostly priced at 2820-2880 yuan/ton, with prices temporarily stable. The domestic potassium chloride market has a large supply of imported goods, and it is expected that the potassium chloride market will be weak and consolidate in the future.

Recently, the domestic potassium chloride market is still in a slow downward trend, with poor cost support. Downstream demand for essential procurement is maintained, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.