According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, domestic lithium carbonate will be in a continuous decline throughout 2024 due to excess inventory. When lithium carbonate can rebound and whether it can rebound to the peak of 600000 yuan per ton has become a topic of concern in the industry. We will analyze the future of lithium carbonate in 2025 from the following four aspects.

（1） Market Review of 2024

Looking back at the price of lithium carbonate in 2024, except for a rapid upward trend after the Spring Festival and a fluctuating rebound during the “Golden September and Silver October” period, lithium carbonate remained in a state of “continuous decline” throughout the year. The post Spring Festival rally was due to the continuous fluctuation of market fermentation, Jiangxi environmental inspection, and Australian mine production reduction news under the low price center at that time. Coupled with the improvement of battery production expectations, the industry had certain expectations for downstream replenishment, driving prices from 100000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a high of around 120000 yuan/ton for the year. Subsequently, it continued to decline to the cost line of around 70000 yuan/ton. The volatile rebound in the fourth quarter was due to the improvement of monthly supply and demand margins, a turning point in inventory, better downstream output than market expectations, stronger support below, and a slight rebound in prices.

（2） Supply side: Global lithium resource production continues to increase by 2025

Domestically, three types of lithium ore projects have made progress by 2025. It is expected that China’s lithium resource supply will reach 330000 tons of LCE by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8%.

Lithium pyroxene end:

At present, the annual production of spodumene in China is about 46000 tons of LCE, and there are still multiple ongoing and climbing projects. It is expected that the supply of spodumene in China will reach 70000 tons of LCE by 2025.

Lithium mica end:

Although domestic lithium mica accounts for the largest proportion, due to high environmental pressure, profit disadvantage, and slow capacity expansion, the main production area of Yichun, a mining area for lithium mica, maintained a long period of closure and rectification in the first half of 2024. In September, domestic lithium industry giant Ningde Times also announced the shutdown of its Xiawo mine and its smelting plant, resulting in a significant decline in the smelting capacity of mica in Jiangxi. At present, the annual production of lithium mica in China is about 138000 tons of LCE, and it is expected that the supply will decrease to 105000 tons of LCE by 2025.

Salt Lake End:

At present, the annual production of salt lakes in China is about 129000 tons of LCE, and it is expected that the supply will rise to 162000 tons of LCE by 2025. In 2025, the increase in domestic smelting capacity will mainly be concentrated in the salt lake end.

From a global perspective, some high cost mines will reduce production, halt production or delay construction in 2024, but the global increase is still considerable. The main supply will still come from Australia and South America, with the main increase concentrated in Zimbabwe in Africa and Argentina in South America.

By 2025, it is expected that South American salt lakes will contribute approximately 140000 tons of LCE, Australia will contribute approximately 22000 tons of LCE, Africa will contribute approximately 70000 tons of LCE, and domestic projects will contribute approximately 23000 tons of LCE. It is expected that the global lithium resource supply will reach 1.59 million tons of LCE by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20%.

（3） Demand side: Global demand continues to grow by 2025

In terms of new energy vehicles: the domestic situation is improving, but the overseas market is slowing down

Domestically speaking, the growth trend of new energy vehicles is strong, maintaining a high growth rate. In 2024, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 12 million units. Due to the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeding 50%, it is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 15 million units by 2025, with a slower growth rate. It is expected that the new energy vehicle power battery will drive a domestic demand for 500000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025.

Overseas perspective: The economic vitality of Europe in 2024 is still insufficient, and consumer confidence is low. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in various countries has forced mainstream countries to reduce or even cancel new energy subsidy policies, hindering the growth of energy companies outside the UK. In 2024, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe decreased by 5% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of about 19%. The UK maintains a growth rate of 16.7% and a penetration rate of over 30%. 2025 is the European carbon emission assessment milestone, with policy driven electrification transformation, and European new energy vehicles may usher in a recovery. In 2024, due to the rollback of the Inflation Reduction Act, some car models in the United States will no longer enjoy subsidies of $7500 or $3500, resulting in a growth rate of only about 10% for new energy vehicles and a penetration rate of about 9%. US new energy companies are also facing increased policy uncertainty due to Trump’s presidency, and it is expected that there will be no significant increase in growth rate by 2025. Globally, it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 19.2 million units by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, roughly corresponding to a growth rate of 3% overseas. It is expected that power batteries will drive a global demand for 750000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025.

In terms of energy storage batteries: maintaining high global growth

Domestically, the installation of new energy storage devices, mainly lithium-ion batteries, has maintained high growth. Especially in the third and fourth quarters, with the rush to install at the end of the year, manufacturers’ shipments have significantly increased, corresponding to a significant increase in the purchase volume of battery cells. The operating rate of top battery cell companies is as high as 90%. It is expected that the shipment volume of lithium energy storage batteries in China will be about 330GWh in 2024. The shipment volume in 2025 is expected to be around 495GWh, with an estimated growth rate of 50%.

Looking overseas

The US energy storage market is constrained by the complex grid connection process and high costs of grid renovation, which have resulted in delayed grid connection and hindered the growth rate of energy storage batteries. However, it still maintains a high growth rate. In 2023, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) of the United States will reform the relevant grid connection process, simplifying the process of renewable energy grid connection. The energy storage market in the United States is expected to reach 12.4GW in 2024 and 14.3GW in 2025.

From the perspective of Europe, the demand for household storage has declined, and the incremental portion may gradually shift from household storage to large-scale storage. In 2024, it is expected that the newly installed capacity will be 22.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 62%. The incremental capacity of household storage, industrial and commercial storage, and grid side storage will be 8.7 GWh, 2.7 GWh, and 11 GWh, respectively, accounting for 39%, 12%, and 49% of the total capacity.

Overall, it is expected that the global shipment of energy storage lithium batteries will reach 345GWh for the whole year of 2024, and maintain a growth rate of 50% in 2025, reaching 520GWh.

Inventory and supply-demand balance: Excess situation will ease in 2025

Inventory: From the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 to the whole year of 2024, domestic lithium carbonate has maintained high inventory. However, from the third quarter of 2024 onwards, due to certain production cuts in the mining sector and the peak demand season, lithium carbonate has experienced continuous destocking.

Supply side: Due to some domestic enterprises having announced production cuts, shutdowns, reduced capital expenditures, or delayed project construction, the increase in raw materials provided by the domestic resource side in 2025 is limited. It is expected that the increase in domestic smelting production will mainly come from the supply of Australian and African mines. At the same time, considering the large increase in South American salt lakes (nearly 100000 tons), it is expected that the amount of lithium salt entering the country from Chile and Argentina will increase significantly. The increase in domestic supply side is still significant, and it is expected that the increase in domestic supply side will reach 21%.

Demand side: Sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow, but the growth rate has slowed down. Energy storage will continue to maintain high growth, and the comprehensive growth rate of lithium carbonate demand side will remain around 24%.

Overall, there will still be an excess of lithium carbonate in China next year, but the excess amount will narrow.

Based on the above data, we make the following predictions about the future price trend of lithium carbonate:

In the short term, periodic changes in supply and demand will cause fluctuations in the short-term market, and lithium carbonate will experience a bottoming out near the cost line in the short term.

In the long run, it is difficult to change the surplus pattern of lithium carbonate by 2025, but there will be large-scale production cuts on the supply side, narrowing the excess. The growth rate of demand will increase, exceeding the year-on-year growth rate of supply. It is expected that the fluctuation center will gradually rise, but it is difficult to return to the historical high of 600000 yuan/ton, and will fluctuate in the range of 70000 to 120000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since December, there has been a long short game, and the palm oil spot market has experienced a sharp decline after rising, with prices oscillating and falling, with an overall decline of over 2%. On December 1st, the average market price of palm oil was 10350 yuan/ton, and on December 13th, the average market price of palm oil was 10078 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.63% in price.

Long short game: domestic palm oil market plummets from high to low

Since December, the palm oil market has experienced a surge, with prices approaching 10500 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 2%. Due to ongoing negative factors, palm oil experienced a plunge after rising, and the market continued to decline, with prices dropping to around 10000 yuan/ton, a drop of over 3%. The current rise in palm oil prices is mainly driven by external market conditions. Due to poor terminal demand, there is insufficient momentum for sustained upward movement. After the rise, there is a pullback, and the price returns to a low level.

Li Bing, a palm oil analyst at Shengyi Society, believes that after mid December, Malaysian palm oil in the external market is still in a production reduction cycle, and there is still room for an upward trend in the palm oil market in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 1021 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 1008 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27% and a year-on-year increase of 19.43%. On December 8th, the chemical index was 847 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.50% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 41.64% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is weak, with a downward trend of 10-20 yuan/ton. The mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali is around 950-1040 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is weak, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali being around 1000-1080 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali being around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). This week, as the main downstream procurement prices have declined, affecting the market atmosphere, caustic soda prices have also declined. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and the industry is mainly observing and observing.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 49th week of 2024 (12.2-12.6), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are PVC (-2.30%), calcium carbide (-1.72%), and caustic soda (-1.27%).

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and the demand for non aluminum industries has been weak. Downstream companies are mainly cautious and watching, and the supply-demand game is comprehensive. It is expected that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Ethylene glycol prices fall in November

The price of ethylene glycol slightly increased in December. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of December 6th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4613.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% from the average price of 4591.67 yuan/ton on December 1st.

In the morning session, spot contract traders had good trading. After the market rose, there was an increase in spot contract shippers, and receiving traders were cautious and afraid of high prices. They did not receive many orders, and the market trading was relatively weak. During the trading session, the main focus was on high priced shipments from base traders.

On December 6th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4240-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On December 5, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $543/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $550/ton.

Strong domestic supply and weak demand for ethylene glycol remain unchanged

In December, the domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol maintained a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol has increased month on month, and the operating rate has remained relatively high. In terms of demand, the downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. The loading and weaving loads are weakening. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations in the near future, with expectations of a weakened polyester load in December.

Approaching the Spring Festival (January), it is highly likely that the operating rate of downstream polyester plants will decrease, and terminal weaving orders will fall. Terminal manufacturers will gradually enter a state of production reduction, shutdown, and holiday shutdown by the end of December, and polyester will gradually enter a state of accumulated inventory. Recently, downstream filament and splicing factories have gradually begun to release maintenance plans, and there are signs of a decline in downstream operating rates.

Domestic supply, especially with the return of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Equipment in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, coupled with the incremental release of production capacity in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions. There is an increase in domestic supply. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply of coal to ethylene glycol and the production of raw material ethylene, domestic supply is in an upward phase.

The dependence on domestic ethylene glycol imports has decreased

The dependence on imported ethylene glycol is gradually decreasing with the release of domestic production capacity. Recently, the explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol has been relatively low. On the one hand, this is because the port inventory does not include the hidden inventory of domestic production areas and factories. On the other hand, it is also because downstream manufacturers had sufficient stock at low prices in November, and the port has been affected by weather recently, resulting in delayed unloading due to port closures. With the gradual unloading and arrival of ocean going large ships, the explicit inventory is also expected to rebound.

Future expectations

The weak domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol have suppressed the upward potential of ethylene glycol prices. From a cost perspective, crude oil prices have been at a low level recently, and the support from the cost side is relatively insufficient. At present, although there is an expected increase in explicit inventory at the port, the absolute data is relatively low, which to some extent supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the short term, the fluctuation of ethylene glycol prices is mainly weak.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall domestic adipic acid market has declined this week, with a drop of over 1%. On November 25th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8400 yuan/ton. On November 28th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19%.

Negative leads to weak decline in adipic acid market

This week, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline weakly. Mainly due to the lack of upward momentum in the cyclohexanone market caused by the upstream raw material pure benzene, and the sluggish demand for adipic acid procurement from end-users. In addition, the supply pressure of adipic acid has doubled, and negative factors have suppressed it. The weak downward trend of adipic acid market is the main reason, and the mainstream market price is 8200-8300 yuan/ton, with a weak downward trend.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in December, the bearish sentiment remains, and the adipic acid market will continue to weaken.

In November, the domestic phenol market rose more than fell. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7537 yuan/ton on November 1st and 7787 yuan/ton on November 30th, an increase of 3.32%.

In the first half of the month, social inventory was low, import and domestic shipping arrivals were insufficient, spot supply was tight, trading contract costs were high, and there was a strong sentiment of pushing prices high. Under the operation of pushing prices upwards, the terminal was passive in replenishing essential goods, and many small orders were followed up with transactions. The downstream factories have insufficient purchasing power, and the supply strategy is to offer discounts for shipment.

In the latter half of the year, Qingdao Bay and Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone Plant will be shut down for maintenance, and the situation of tight cargo is expected to worsen. As a result, traders’ intention to push up prices is expected to increase, and the focus is steadily moving upwards. In the market’s favorable situation, factory quotations have also been raised multiple times to help. As prices continue to rise and the end of the month approaches, the pressure on contract customers to ship is not significant, and the room for concessions is limited, resulting in a weak market ending.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7850 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price of 7800-7850 yuan/ton. As of the 30th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

In terms of supply, the inventory of Jiangyin phenol port is 10000 tons, including 3000 tons in Hengyang and 7000 tons in Huaxi. In terms of equipment, Changchun Chemical’s 480000 tons/year phenol ketone unit will be shut down for maintenance from October 10th to November 21st; Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I Phenol Ketone Plant will shut down on November 1st, expected to last for one month; Lihua Yiwei Yuan Phase I Phenol Ketone Plant will be shut down for maintenance from November 1st to 7th; The phenol ketone plant in Qingdao Bay will be shut down from November 18th to 24th; Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone Plant will shut down from November 19th to 27th.

From the perspective of demand, terminal enterprises mainly focus on buying for essential needs, and are cautious in pursuing high prices, which constrains the demand side. The downstream bisphenol A spot market has remained lukewarm, with stable market offers and negotiations in the East China region at 7700-7800 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

Business Society predicts that the domestic phenol market will be narrow and weak in December. In December, all domestic phenol ketone plants have been restarted, and there is no clear news of shutdown or negative load reduction. Supply expectations have increased, and the import shipping situation can be focused on during the month. The overall supply increase may have a bearish constraint on the market. It is expected that the phenol market will weaken in December, and considering costs and profits, the decline is not significant.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 20th to 27th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2549 yuan/ton to 2578 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.14% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.42%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.07%. The domestic methanol market continues to operate strongly, with some companies continuing to sell at high prices and transactions remaining acceptable.

As of the close on November 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2612 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2613 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2571 yuan/ton. It closed at 2583 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, with an increase of 0.81%. The trading volume was 739781 lots, the position was 682672 lots, and the daily increase was -62332 lots.

On the cost side, the overall supply and demand structure of the chemical coal market is still showing a loose trend. In addition, the inventory of thermal power plants remains high, and there is no possibility of large-scale coal hoarding in the short term. Even a small amount of rigid demand cannot drive a sustained strong rebound in coal prices, and the weak demand side has led to a continued stalemate and instability in the market. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: the demand for acetic acid will continue to increase; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. Most downstream products have increased their demand for methanol, which is influenced by favorable factors on the demand side.

On the supply side, the loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of November 26th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 344.00-345.00 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 121.00-122.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 424.00-425.00 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.

Future forecast: In the near future, attention should be paid to the domestic and international gas restrictions, the shutdown of multiple sets of olefin plants due to load reduction, and the impact of macro news. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will strengthen and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in late November, the domestic formic acid market remained stable with an upward trend of 85%. As of November 25th, the average price of formic acid was 2850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7% from 2775 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Raw material side: The raw material methanol is stable, moderate, and strong. Recently, some methanol enterprises have shut down their equipment for maintenance, resulting in more losses than recoveries and a decrease in capacity utilization. The favorable factors affecting the methanol supply side; In addition, some olefin plants still have plans to continue outsourcing methanol, and the supply and demand in the methanol market are still acceptable. Prices have been raised, but the increase is limited, which has limited support for formic acid.

Supply and demand side: Recently, the main manufacturers of formic acid have a high operating rate, and the market supply is loose. Formic acid downstream procurement on demand, with average enthusiasm. Both supply and demand sides have no favorable support for formic acid.

According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, there is currently sufficient supply of formic acid in the market, limited terminal demand, and no favorable factors. It is expected that the formic acid market will continue to operate steadily at a low level, and specific trends still need to be monitored based on market information.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1981 yuan/ton, which is 0.13% lower than the reference average price of 1983 yuan/ton on November 18.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market price first suppressed and then rose, with a narrow adjustment in operation. As of November 22, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1780-1810 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1820 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1810 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1830 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong region it is around 1965 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, the urea market supply continued to increase this week, and there is currently a high inventory in the market. In terms of demand, downstream procurement is the main focus, with many low-priced transactions, and demand follow-up needs to be improved.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market in Shandong has seen a slight increase in recent days, while other regions are stabilizing. At present, the market supply is loose, the market transactions are still acceptable, and downstream buyers are cautious in following orders. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market will mainly experience weak price consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4180 yuan/ton. In early November, the DMF market price showed a step down trend, and the problem of oversupply in the DMF market became apparent. Operators were cautious and cautious, lacking confidence in the future market. Upstream methanol prices remained stagnant and consolidated, with high inventory pressure, which limited the support for DMF production.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost: After November, the upstream methanol market of DMF continued to fluctuate narrowly, and the overall market operated in a volatile manner. Downstream demand for methanol continued to rise, and there was still pressure on methanol inventory. In November, methanol plants were newly put into operation, with 2.8 million tons in Inner Mongolia and 250000 tons in Shanxi. The new production was reflected around the end of November. Currently, manufacturers are actively shipping, and terminal demand is weak, resulting in a lack of follow-up mentality in the methanol market where price cutting procurement is the main focus.

In terms of demand, DMF has a wide range of downstream applications, with PU accounting for 54%. It is widely used in polyurethane coatings and synthetic leather, with the electronics industry accounting for 20% and the pharmaceutical industry accounting for 11%. Currently, the DMF market has a relatively sufficient supply, but with the rapid development of the domestic electronics industry, it will drive an increase in demand for high-purity DMF. The overall DMF market is currently in a state of oversupply.

Competitive landscape: DMF production capacity is relatively concentrated, and domestic small capacity enterprises are gradually being eliminated. Currently, several well-known DMF enterprises in China have become the main force, and their competitive trend is mainly reflected in advanced production technology, stable product quality, etc. With the increase of environmental protection efforts, reducing pollutant emissions in the production process, improving resource utilization, and enhancing production efficiency, thereby enhancing market competitiveness.

In terms of inventory: DMF inventory remained relatively high in November, and enterprise installations began to operate one after another, resulting in an increase in market supply. Downstream demand did not meet expectations, with phased replenishment being the main focus. Demand performance was average, and there was pressure on enterprise inventory, with limited room for market price increases.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current average price of DMF in the market is around 4000-4100 yuan/ton. With the gradual operation of facilities, the market supply continues to increase, and downstream demand support is limited. Inventory remains at a high level, making it difficult to consume in a short period of time. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders. In the short term, the DMF market price trend will maintain a narrow and weak trend.