According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has slightly declined this week. As of February 28th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.30% from the price of 6580 yuan/ton on February 24th.

On the supply side: Currently, the market supply is normal, and downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride have seen an increase in production, with procurement mainly based on demand. As of February 28th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6300 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6000 yuan/ton.

Upstream: Recently, the n-butane market has slightly increased, and as of February 28th, the price in Shandong is around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream: Recently, unsaturated resin companies have been operating slowly, and there is a strong demand for purchasing unsaturated resins downstream, which has limited support for unsaturated resins. Currently, the procurement of maleic anhydride for unsaturated resins is limited.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that recently, the main downstream resin of maleic anhydride has completed its replenishment, and the follow-up of new orders has slowed down. Unsaturated resins mainly maintain the essential demand for maleic anhydride, which has limited support for the maleic anhydride market; At present, the main factories producing maleic anhydride maintain stable prices, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been running weakly this month, with an average market price of 1563.2 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1543.2 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has dropped by 1.28%, a year-on-year decrease of 37.28%. On February 26th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 102.58, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.50% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 16.21% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1400-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1700 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in February. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1494 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.28% and 33.33% compared to the same period last year.

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with the overall weak performance of the upstream raw material soda ash in February. Downstream areas such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8261 yuan/ton on February 20th and 8246 yuan/ton on February 27th, with a price drop of 0.18% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10183 yuan/ton on February 20th and 10133 yuan/ton on February 27th, with a price drop of 0.49% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8412 yuan/ton on February 20th and 8387 yuan/ton on February 27th, with a price drop of 0.30% during this period.

Recently, the international oil price trend on the cost side has fallen, and the cost side is weak, which is bearish for the polyethylene market. The pressure on the supply side is still ongoing, with stable deployment of new production capacity in the early stages, and plans to restart some maintenance facilities at the end of February. The peak season for plastic film is about to begin, but the demand for greenhouse film has entered the off-season. The market order follow-up is insufficient, and traders mainly offer discounts for shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in quotations.

The unexpected increase in finished oil inventories in the United States indicates that the expectation of weak demand remains unchanged; The combination of the Ukraine Russia peace agreement has put pressure on oil prices, and there is a downward trend in cost side oil prices; Supply side inventory pressure remains; The demand for plastic film is gradually entering the peak season, which may provide some support. Against the backdrop of increasing supply and demand, it is expected that there will be significant upward pressure on polyethylene.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

The latest price on February 25th is 15180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53% compared to the previous trading day.

Analysis points: On February 25th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price slightly increased. Recently, Longqi has taken the lead in announcing price increases, and other manufacturers have followed suit. Overall, the domestic price of titanium dioxide has risen by around 300 yuan/ton, and the foreign trade sales price has risen by around 50 US dollars/ton. At present, the market has received good orders and confidence has been boosted, with some tight supply models experiencing price increases.

Prediction: It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will remain strong in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, formic acid experienced an upward trend at the end of February. As of February 24th, the average price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 3000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.69% from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 4% from 3125 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

The supply side device is running stably, and the outlet is improving

The mainstream production enterprises of formic acid have stable operation of their equipment and little inventory pressure. Due to the long-term stable operation of the market, manufacturers hold a high price mentality. However, the export situation of formic acid is good, and the amount of goods on site has decreased. Manufacturers’ high price mentality is becoming stronger, and the focus of the formic acid market has shifted upward.

Weak consolidation of raw material methanol reduces support for formic acid

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 14th to 21st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first fell from 2599 yuan/ton and then rose to 2598 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.03% during the period, a month on month decline of 2.35%, and a year-on-year decline of 0.67%. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. The utilization rate of domestic methanol production capacity is still at a high level, and the traditional downstream is gradually recovering. Although downstream external procurement has boosted the mainland market at the beginning of the week, the downstream maintains rational procurement as the main focus, and the overall mainland market is weak and volatile.

The demand for downstream compound fertilizers has increased

The compound fertilizer market is steadily rising. At present, the market is active in trading, with strong cost support and the release of spring demand. Some manufacturers have suspended orders and are reluctant to sell, and it is expected that the short-term market will continue to consolidate and operate at a high level.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that with the combination of good demand and favorable export conditions, formic acid prices have risen, and the spring farming season is approaching. It is expected that downstream pesticides will boost the demand for formic acid, and the formic acid market is expected to remain stable and strong. Specific market supply and demand news still needs to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 17th to 21st, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a weak decline, with an average price of 18666 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 18600 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.66% during the period and a year-on-year increase of 9.73%. The domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a slight decline during the week, with high prices and low transaction volume. Traders accelerated their delivery of goods, increasing the room for negotiation.

On the supply side, the temporary shutdown of the domestic Fujian plant is expected to take about half a month. The maintenance of the 410000 tons/year MDI plant in Jinhu, South Korea is scheduled to begin on February 9th and last for about a month. BASF’s 250000 tons/year MDI plant in South Korea is scheduled to undergo maintenance starting from February 9th, lasting approximately one month.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has fluctuated at a high level. Market supply remains high, but there is an increase in future maintenance plans, leading to an expected decrease in supply. Raw material aniline: The price is temporarily stable, with a mainstream price of 9200-9300 yuan/ton. Downstream demand is average, and the pressure on aniline enterprises to sell goods has increased, with more room for negotiation. It is expected that the aniline market will maintain a weak operation in the short term.

On the demand side, downstream demand follow-up is average, with a focus on essential needs. Export orders are still acceptable, but demand needs further improvement.

Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is running weakly, waiting for demand to rebound. It is expected that in the short term, the aggregated MDI market will digest and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market fluctuated and slightly declined from February 10 to February 17, 2025. On February 17th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% from 6740 yuan/ton on February 10th. This week, the mixed xylene market fluctuated within a certain range, with a slight overall decline and slight differences in performance across regions. The overall decline of the mixed xylene market in Shandong region is affected by insufficient downstream demand, resulting in limited market purchasing enthusiasm and weak overall operation of the Shandong market. Affected by low inventory, market prices in the East China region have slightly increased. Affected by tight supply in the South China region, Sinopec raised its ex factory prices. However, due to insufficient downstream receiving capacity, the market prices slightly declined, with an overall increase followed by a decrease.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell, with little overall fluctuation. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is reported at $75.02 per barrel.

Supply side:

Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of February 17th, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6850-6900 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6400 yuan/ton.

Demand side: acceptable support

On February 14th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7500 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. As of February 13th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 854-856 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 879-881 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is running weakly, with limited cost support. In recent times, the overall supply has been stable but slightly tight, with little change. The downstream receiving capacity of the demand side is weak, and the futures markets such as PX are weakening, which affects the downstream purchasing mentality. It is expected to operate steadily and weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 5th to 14th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5162 yuan/ton to 5125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 20.23%. The price of edible ethanol in the domestic market fluctuates weakly, but the overall supply is stable. After the holiday, corn ethanol enterprises have resumed work one after another, and downstream demand is stocking up.

In terms of cost, domestic corn prices have remained stable with a slight increase. The deep processing industry has good profits; The policy of importing grains has shrunk; New season corn production reduction; The sale of imported corn wheels has stopped. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

On the supply side, Jilin’s major edible ethanol plant has shifted production, resulting in a decrease in operating load. However, overall, there is not much pressure on spot supply; The production enterprise can still accept orders and the delivery is stable. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption is generally supported; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate has been reported to have gradually resumed parking facilities, and the operating rate has rebounded. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

Market forecast, cost and demand game, downstream enterprises are watching the market with insufficient positive news, and terminal procurement is mainly for essential needs. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the overall price of isopropanol is expected to decline in 2024. At the beginning of the year, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7890 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 6660 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 15.59% during the year. The highest price of isopropanol within the year is 9120 yuan/ton, and the lowest price within the year is 6650 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of market development in 2024, in the first half of the year, isopropanol experienced a fluctuating upward trend, while raw materials such as acetone and propylene rose one after another, with strong cost support and overall market fluctuations. In the second half of the year, isopropanol is in a downward trend, and the domestic isopropanol market is weak and declining. The acetone market has experienced a wide decline in raw materials, while the propylene market prices have fluctuated and fallen, resulting in insufficient cost support.

In the first quarter, the average price of isopropanol was 7890 yuan/ton on January 1st and 8210 yuan/ton on March 31st, with a cumulative increase of 4.06% from January to March. In January and February, the prices of raw materials acetone and propylene rose one after another, providing strong cost support, and the price of isopropanol increased. In March, the raw material acetone fluctuated slightly and the price of propylene fell, with average cost support. On site demand is weak, and the market is lukewarm. As of the end of March, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 7900-8200 yuan/ton; Most of the quotations in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8300-8500 yuan/ton based on market reference prices.

In the second quarter, the average price of isopropanol was 8190 yuan/ton on April 1st and 8660 yuan/ton on June 30th, with a cumulative increase of 5.74% from April to June. In April, the supply of acetone in the market was tight, causing a significant increase in acetone market prices, which boosted confidence in the isopropanol market and led to an increase in market prices. The raw material support is limited from May to June, and the demand for isopropanol in the market is average, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. As of the end of June, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 8500-8650 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu Zhejiang region are around 8800-8900 yuan/ton.

The average price of isopropanol in the third quarter was 8660 yuan/ton on July 1st and 6710 yuan/ton on September 30th, with a cumulative decline of 22.52% from July to September. The acetone market has experienced a wide decline, while the propylene market prices have fluctuated and fallen, resulting in insufficient cost support. The export situation is somewhat average, with weak downstream markets in China and a decline in isopropanol market prices. As of the end of September, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6600-6750 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6800-6850 yuan/ton, while prices in the South China region are around 6900-7000 yuan/ton.

The average price of isopropanol in the fourth quarter was 6710 yuan/ton on October 1st and 6660 yuan/ton on December 31st, with a cumulative decline of 0.75% from October to December. The terminal market is operating at a low level, while the downstream market is performing averagely. Downstream inquiries are mainly based on demand, and there is a strong atmosphere of observation in the market. The isopropanol market is weak and mainly undergoing consolidation and operation. As of the end of December, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6750-6800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in Northeast China are around 6500-6600 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the majority of isopropanol market prices are around 6700-6750 yuan/ton. In South China, the majority of isopropanol market prices are around 7050-7150 yuan/ton.

Production capacity and output

According to publicly available data, in terms of competition among enterprises in China’s isopropanol industry, analysis based on production capacity shows that isopropanol production enterprises in China are relatively concentrated, with less than 20 isopropanol production enterprises nationwide, with a total production capacity of about 1.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.31%.

In terms of production, there has been little change in domestic isopropanol production in recent years, and it is still in the stage of overcapacity. In the first half of 2024, the utilization rate of isopropanol production capacity will be around 36-54%. The capacity utilization rate in the second half of the year is around 46-64%.

Import and export aspects

According to customs statistics, China’s imports of isopropanol in 2024 amounted to 50035560 kilograms, with an import value of 76240148 US dollars. Taiwan, China, South Korea and Japan are still the main import trade partners of isopropanol, accounting for 99% of the total import volume. In terms of the proportion of domestic isopropanol imports relative to domestic production in 2024, the import dependence is approximately 10.76%. Overall, the import volume has little impact on the supply and demand pattern of the Chinese isopropanol market.

According to customs statistics, exports in 2024 amounted to 190667364 kilograms, with an export value of 200156096 US dollars. Mainly exported to countries such as Thailand, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, etc. On October 22, 2024, the Revenue Department of the Indian Ministry of Finance issued Notice No. 22/2024 Custods (ADD), accepting the anti-dumping final ruling recommendation made by the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry on isopropanol originating or imported from China on August 14, 2024, and deciding to impose anti-dumping duties on the products in question in China for a period of 5 years. The producer/exporter in question, Chang Xin Neng Co., Ltd., was charged $82/ton, while other producers/exporters in China were charged $217/ton.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol is based on two processes, acetone and propylene. At present, the profitability of the isopropanol acetone hydrogenation process is better than that of the propylene hydration process, so the price of isopropanol mainly varies with the acetone raw material.

In 2025, the overcapacity of isopropanol in China will still exist, and the direction of market regulation will be focused on the production rate of isopropanol. The fluctuation of the operating load rate of isopropanol in 2025 may be very frequent.

In 2025, isopropanol is currently mainly exported, with limited domestic demand. Chinese isopropanol exporters should closely monitor the implementation of India’s anti-dumping policies, adjust their export strategies, and seek new markets to reduce their dependence on the Indian market.

In summary, in 2025, the factors affecting the price of isopropanol will still be domestic demand, exports, cost and operating load rate adjustments. Under the premise of a significant increase in export volume, the market will perform even stronger.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after mid January, the bullish factors still exist, and the domestic adipic acid market continues to rise, with an increase of over 2%. On January 15th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8200 yuan/ton. On January 22nd, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8366 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.03%.

Lido supports domestic adipic acid market to continue rising

After mid January, the prices of adipic acid raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone continued to rise, driven by the stocking market in the terminal plastic industry. Major adipic acid manufacturers raised their factory prices, and the domestic adipic acid market continued to recover, with prices continuously increasing. The average market price rose to 8300-8600 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 200 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that after the Spring Festival, the rise in raw material prices will be weak, and the supply of adipic acid will be loose, which will continue to put pressure on the future market.