The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the DOP price was 7492.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.27% compared to the DOP price of 7325.84 yuan/ton on January 1st. The operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises is stable, with an operating rate of about 63% and stable DOP production; The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have risen, raw material prices have increased, DOP costs have risen, and with the increase in costs and sufficient supply, plasticizer prices have fluctuated and increased.
Plasticizer DOP manufacturer’s production slightly decreases
In January, the operating load of DOP manufacturers slightly decreased, the operating rate dropped to 63%, DOP production decreased, DOP supply decreased, and the upward momentum of DOP still exists.
The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuates and rises
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the price of isooctanol was 7033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.69% compared to the price of 6916.67 yuan/ton on January 1st. The equipment maintenance of the isooctanol enterprise has been completed, and the operating load of the isooctanol enterprise device has increased. The operating rate of isooctanol is 9.5%, and the supply of isooctanol is sufficient; The price of propylene has risen significantly, and the cost support of isooctanol has increased. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen, the cost of plasticizers has increased, and the driving force for DOP to rise has increased.
The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose in January
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 6266.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 5.03% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on January 1st, which was 5966.67 yuan/ton. Starting from late December, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded, and in January, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise. In January, the price of phthalic anhydride increased significantly, the cost of DOP rose, and the support for the rise in plasticizers increased.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen, while the price of phthalic anhydride has increased significantly. The support for the rising cost of plasticizer DOP has also increased; In terms of supply, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is weak and stable, the production of plasticizers is stable, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. In the future, with rising costs and limited supply and demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will consolidate strongly.

Last Tuesday, the ethylene glycol market fluctuated strongly, and on Friday, East China ports closed at 3225 yuan/ton. Diethylene glycol is moving upwards from the bottom, but there is no structural change in the fundamentals, and the actual effective support is insufficient. The market relatively lacks new direction guidance. The main port supply will increase in the latter half of the year, and most industry players are more cautious in their market judgments.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: As of January 11th, Fubao’s inventory was 7400 tons, and Changjiang International’s inventory was 28600 tons.
Demand: Terminal demand is average, with domestic unsaturated resin factories operating at an average of 39%, up 3%. Traders are under pressure to ship. From January 9th to 11th, a total of 3770 tons of diethylene glycol were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, with an average daily shipment of 1257 tons over the weekend as of now.
Cost: The geopolitical situation between Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and Israel remains uncertain, and short-term potential supply risks continue, leading to an increase in international oil prices.
Market expectation: International crude oil is expected to operate weakly, with fluctuations in the range of diethylene glycol. The fundamental structure has not yet changed, and downstream purchases will be appropriately followed up. Short term fluctuations will be the main focus, and we will observe the unloading situation of large ships arriving at the port in the future.

The development of the calcium carbide industry is deeply linked to energy structure and industrial policies, and by 2025, it will achieve a transformation to improve quality and efficiency, presenting characteristics such as supply optimization and demand differentiation; The tight supply-demand balance will continue in 2026, with policies and emerging demand leading the transformation.

（1） Price trend in 2025: high volatility followed by a downward trend, driven by multiple factors such as supply and demand, costs, and policies. The resumption of work and production at the beginning of the year drove prices up to 2733.33 yuan/ton; In the second quarter, Inner Mongolia’s production restrictions led to a contraction in supply, causing prices in North China to rise to 2800 yuan/ton; Starting from the third quarter, downstream maintenance and the release of new production capacity have led to weak demand, and prices have continued to fall, dropping to 2300 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price difference between Northwest China, East China, and South China is 400-600 yuan/ton, due to differences in resource costs and logistics, and strong industry price linkage.
（2） Supply side: Effective production capacity of 42 million tons per year (unchanged from 2024), with a 12 percentage point increase in the elimination rate of outdated devices below 100000 tons per year, and zombie production capacity of 3.5-4 million tons per year. 80% of the newly added production capacity of 2 million tons is for PVC and BDO integrated projects, with limited increase in commodity volume. The production capacity of the six provinces and regions in Northwest China accounts for 88% (33.21% in Inner Mongolia), with a top enterprise operating rate of over 75% and small-scale production capacity of less than 50%; The annual output was 38 million tons, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. From January to March, exports of 41000 tons (+48.17% year-on-year) flowed to RCEP countries, and the sustainability of growth is affected by Indian policies.
（3） On the demand side: PVC accounts for 78% of calcium carbide consumption, but due to the downturn in the real estate market and the squeeze of ethylene production, demand is weak; BDO has become the core engine with a demand contribution rate of 20%. The Inner Mongolia Phase II project has driven a demand increase of over 25%. BDO has added 1.63 million tons/year of production capacity throughout the year, and PBAT/PBS expansion has amplified indirect demand, resulting in stable PVA demand.
In terms of policy, 30% of production capacity will reach the energy efficiency benchmark, environmental protection costs will increase by 8% -10%, and local governments will promote the integration of coal and electricity; On the cost side, the price reduction of blue charcoal and limestone alleviates the pressure, while the high cost of electricity gives Northwest self owned power plants significant advantages; Technologically, the proportion of closed calcium carbide furnaces exceeds 90%, and advanced enterprises have reduced their electricity consumption per ton to 2600 kilowatt hours.
By 2025, the industry will complete its transformation from scale expansion to improving quality and efficiency, with core characteristics of price fluctuations, supply optimization, and demand differentiation.

2、 The price trend forecast for 2026 is expected to show a trend of “oscillation bottoming out and slight increase in the central area”, with a core operating range of 2200-2800 yuan/ton, and a slight rebound of 5% -8% in the price center compared to 2025. Supporting factors: shrinking supply due to the clearance of outdated production capacity, emerging demand support from BDO, and rigid cost support; Suppressing factors: PVC profit pressure restricts high price acceptance and adds integrated production capacity to supplement commodity volume. Short term fluctuations are influenced by downstream maintenance, power policies, and export markets.

（2） On the supply side, the addition of 2 million tons of production capacity is an integrated project with limited increase in commodity volume; Units with a capacity of less than 100000 tons per year will be fully withdrawn, and 2 million tons of outdated production capacity will be cleared, with CR10 rising to over 38%. The operating rate has rebounded to 75% -80%, with a production of 39 to 40 million tons; The expected export is 150000 to 200000 tons, and the dominant supply pattern in the northwest is solidified.
（3） On the demand side, there is a marginal recovery in PVC demand (with a growth rate of 3% -5%), while competition in ethylene production still exists; BDO drives demand growth by 8% -10%, while RCEP countries’ demand transmission overlaps, resulting in a 4% -6% increase in total demand for the year. The contribution rate of emerging fields has risen to over 25%.
From the perspective of Business Society, policies strictly control the addition of new production capacity, and the carbon market deepens cost pressures; Green electricity substitution at the cost end is the key to cost reduction at the top, with high environmental protection costs; Technology is deepening towards low carbonization and intelligence, and integration has become mainstream. Suggest that enterprises accelerate integration and green power layout, focus on BDO field, and promote low-carbon technology; Regulatory authorities coordinate the optimization of production capacity, improve green finance, and guide the response to international trade risks.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 12833 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 12766/ton, a decrease of 0.52%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have been weak this month. The ex factory price of coconut shell water purification activated carbon (iodine value 1000) is between 11000-13500 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex factory price including tax is about 9500 yuan/ton for iodine value 800, and 9800-10200 yuan/ton for iodine value 900. The market demand is off-season, and enterprises determine production based on sales, with stable raw material arrival at the port.
At present, the factory inventory is generally 30-40%, and orders are scheduled from January to February; Downstream industries such as water purification and food have stable demand, with no centralized procurement trend, limiting the increase in price. The high price of coconut shell activated carbon limits the enthusiasm for transactions. According to customs data statistics, the export volume of activated carbon from China in November was 33800 tons, an increase of 36% year-on-year and 24% month on month.
Prediction: Domestic coconut shell activated carbon transactions fell short of expectations, with limited downward space supported by costs. It is expected that activated carbon prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

In December 2025, the domestic bisphenol A market will change its previous sluggish trend and open up an upward channel to stop the decline. Under the multiple favorable factors of supply contraction, marginal improvement in demand, and strengthened cost support, market prices have steadily risen from the low point at the beginning of the month, and traders have a strong sentiment of price support, resulting in a significant rebound in market trading atmosphere. As of December 25th, the benchmark price of bisphenol A in Shengyi Society was reported at 7604.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 426 yuan/ton from 7178.00 yuan/ton on December 1st, with a cumulative increase of 5.93%. The stage rebound trend is clear.

Supply side contraction: device maintenance reduces load, market supply sharply decreases
The substantial contraction of the supply side is the core driving force behind the upward trend of the bisphenol A market. In December, several major domestic manufacturers of bisphenol A entered a state of maintenance or reduced load operation, resulting in a significant decline in industry operating rates and a decrease of about 15% in actual market supply compared to normal levels.
At the same time, the overall inventory of the industry is at a low level, further exacerbating the tight supply situation. The main enterprises are all in a low inventory state. The combination of supply contraction and low inventory has provided a solid foundation for the upward trend of market prices.
Improvement on the demand side: downstream production has rebounded, and rigid replenishment orders have been released
The two core downstream industries of bisphenol A, polycarbonate (PC) and epoxy resin, showed a synchronous recovery trend in early December. On the one hand, there is a rush demand in the terminal field at the end of the year, with an increase in orders from industries such as electronics and composite materials, driving upstream raw material procurement demand; On the other hand, in the early stage, the overall inventory of the industrial chain was reduced to a relatively low level. PC and epoxy resin production enterprises generally adopted a low inventory strategy. With the increase of production load, raw material reserves were rapidly consumed, resulting in varying degrees of raw material shortages, forcing enterprises to increase their efforts to replenish orders.
From the perspective of Business Society, the domestic bisphenol A market is likely to maintain a strong consolidation trend in the short term. On the supply side, the current low inventory pattern in the industry is difficult to change in the short term, and the maintenance and load reduction status of major enterprises will continue. The tight supply situation in the market cannot be substantially alleviated; On the demand side, although the downstream demand for supplementary orders has been partially released, there is still support for year-end rush orders, and essential procurement will maintain a certain scale; On the cost side, the raw material phenol and acetone markets are expected to operate steadily, and cost support is still present. Supported by multiple factors, the market price is expected to remain at a high level of around 7600 yuan/ton in the short term, and traders’ bullish sentiment is difficult to change.
In the medium term, there is a risk of market correction. On the one hand, after the downstream replenishment cycle ends, if terminal consumption fails to keep up, the demand support will weaken, and downstream enterprises’ resistance to high priced raw materials may intensify, putting pressure on the market to reduce inventory; On the other hand, with the restart of maintenance facilities such as Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical in January 2026, market supply will gradually recover, and the supply-demand mismatch pattern is expected to improve. In addition, attention should be paid to the macroeconomic environment and the recovery of terminal industries. If terminal demand continues to be weak, the upward trend of the bisphenol A market is difficult to sustain, and prices may experience a temporary correction.

Phthalic anhydride market rebounds and rises
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 25th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 5633.33 yuan/ton, which rebounded and increased by 1.81% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 5533.33 yuan/ton on December 22nd. This week, phthalic anhydride has rebounded and stopped falling. The price of raw material ortho benzene has temporarily stabilized, costs have stabilized, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises has increased, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient; The operating load of downstream DOP enterprises has slightly increased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has increased. Cost support has increased, coupled with increased demand support, reducing the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.
The cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the supply has increased
On December 25th, Sinopec quoted 5700 yuan/ton for ortho benzene, with ortho benzene prices temporarily stable and phthalic anhydride costs stabilizing. This week, the operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment has increased to 75%, resulting in an increase in production and sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride. Supply has increased, but there is still downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.
Demand side: DOP prices have fluctuated and risen this week
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of December 25th, the DOP price was 7217.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.81% compared to the DOP price of 7159.16 yuan/ton on December 21st. This week, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises has slightly increased, with the operating rate rising to 65%. DOP production has increased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has increased. The downward pressure on phthalic anhydride has weakened, and the upward support has increased.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of demand, the DOP equipment load of plasticizer enterprises has increased, the production of plasticizers has increased, and the support for phthalic anhydride demand has increased. Overall, the cost of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, the production of phthalic anhydride is increasing, and the supply and demand support are increasing. The profit losses of phthalic anhydride manufacturers are increasing, and they have a strong willingness to raise prices. The low-priced supply of phthalic anhydride in the market is decreasing, and the market speculation atmosphere is strengthening. It is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will rebound and rise in the future.

The focus of the domestic acetone market continues to decline, hitting a new low for the year once again. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the national acetone market reported an average daily price of 4227 yuan/ton from December 1st to 4087 yuan/ton on December 19th, a decrease of 3.31%. The negotiated price for acetone in the East China market is 4050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1800 yuan/ton, or 30.34%, compared to 5867 yuan/ton in the same period of 2024. Currently, holders are affected by inventory pressure and weak mentality, and their offers are gradually loosening. The sluggish purchasing willingness of end-users has led to a concentration of actual transactions in the low price range, and sporadic traders are offering discounts to further lower the market focus.

Supply and demand pattern: A balance is formed between domestic production reduction and import supplementation, and inventory pressure still exists.
1. Supply side: Domestic production shrinks but import hedging: The operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants is less than 80%, which is relatively low compared to previous periods. Although the domestic supply of goods has decreased year-on-year, the import volume of acetone in East China in December reached 50000 tons, of which 26000 tons have already arrived and 24000 tons are in transit. The port inventory is stable at 24000 tons, effectively filling the domestic reduction gap, and there is no substantial shortage of overall supply. two Demand side: Strong demand is the main focus, with insufficient willingness to replenish: downstream industries such as bisphenol A, isopropanol, MMA (methyl methacrylate), MIBK (methyl isobutyl ketone), etc. purchase mainly for strong demand, and there are limited proactive restocking players. The MIBK market has intensified its supply-demand contradiction, with prices dropping by 300 yuan/ton compared to November. Downstream demand for raw material acetone is strong; Although there is a demand for replenishment in the bisphenol A industry in December, the procurement of acetone is only maintained at an on-demand level, making it difficult to form an effective driving force. .
The prices of raw materials pure benzene and propylene continue to weaken
Since 2025, the price of pure benzene has fallen by more than 25% year-on-year, and the price of propylene fell below 6000 yuan/ton at the end of October, hitting a new low for the year, resulting in a significant weakening of the cost support for phenol ketone production. The “weak support” on the cost side makes production enterprises lack the motivation to raise prices, and may instead alleviate the pressure of losses by lowering prices and shipping.
Holders lack confidence in the future market: on the one hand, they are concerned about the further increase in inventory after the concentration of imported goods in transit arrives at the port, and on the other hand, they predict that downstream demand will be difficult to recover in the short term, so they tend to “fast in, fast out” to reduce risks; Terminal factories, based on the mentality of “buying up, not buying down”, postpone their procurement plans and wait for signals of price stabilization, forming a negative cycle of “price decline demand wait-and-see inventory accumulation further decline”.

Business Society predicts that the spot price of acetone in East China will remain fluctuating within the range of 4050-4100 yuan/ton, with a high probability of showing a “narrow range fluctuation and slight decrease in center of gravity” trend. One is the increase in supply side pressure: the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants is expected to slightly increase, coupled with the concentration of 20000 tons of imported cargo on the way to the port, the port inventory may increase from 24000 tons to 28000 to 30000 tons, further highlighting the loose supply pattern. Secondly, it is difficult to improve the demand side: the operating rate of the bisphenol A industry is expected to slightly decrease, while the operating rates of the MMA and MIBK industries remain stable. The solvent industry purchases on demand, and the overall demand side lacks incremental growth, making it difficult to cope with supply pressure. Thirdly, the cost side support is limited: the raw material pure benzene and propylene markets are expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the phenol ketone industry is still in a loss making state. The cost side is difficult to effectively support acetone prices, and the downward resistance to prices mainly comes from the reluctance of traders to sell at the current low level.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market experienced a weak decline this week. On December 8th, the market price of aniline was 7812 yuan/ton, and on December 12th, the price was 7675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76% during the period and a decrease of 19.12% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
The aniline market has shown a significant decline this week. During the week, the company’s goods were not smooth, and the supply was loose. The price of aniline quickly fell, with a drop of 200 yuan/ton on the same day, and the mainstream price of aniline fell to 7700 yuan/ton. The market trading volume is average, and the price continues to decrease by 100 yuan/ton. The price has fallen to its position, with increased trading volume, and the aniline market has slightly increased by 50 yuan/ton. Sales pressure is released, and prices have stopped falling and rebounded.
Cost wise: The pure benzene market fluctuated at a low level this week. The port continues to accumulate inventory, and downstream construction has slightly increased, but the impact on styrene is limited. Without significant fluctuations in oil prices. It is expected that the pure benzene market will maintain consolidation and operation in the short term.
3、 Future expectations
The current trading in the aniline market is stable, with relatively low inventory pressure. It is expected that the aniline market will consolidate and operate in the short term, and close attention will be paid to changes in raw materials and supply and demand in the future.

price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol has fallen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 5408.34 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 5183.33 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 4.16%.
This week, the market price of isopropanol has experienced a wide decline. The price of raw material acetone has fallen, and there is a lack of confidence in the isopropanol market within the market. The trading atmosphere is not good, and holders are offering discounts to sell. On site inquiries are cold, downstream demand is weak, and trading volume is limited. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 5100-5200 yuan/ton; The majority of prices in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu region are around 5200-5300 yuan/ton.
Future forecast
The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the isopropanol market price has fallen this week, downstream demand is flat, and on-site inquiries are quiet, so it is advisable to wait and see. It is expected that the short-term market will mainly consolidate weakly, and more attention will be paid to the trading trends of large companies.

In November, the domestic epoxy propane market first rose and then fell. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.03% compared to November 1st.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: In November, the market price of raw material propylene first rose and then fell, while the price of liquid chlorine fluctuated slightly. The rise in raw material prices in the first half of the month provided strong support for epoxy propane, and prices continued to rise. As the end of the month approached, companies attempted to reduce profits by shipping at low prices, resulting in a downward trend in epoxy propane market prices. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6193.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.23% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In the first half of the month, Wanhua and Xinyue reduced their epoxy propane load, and Wanhua imported epoxy propane, further increasing the tight supply situation in the market. The tight supply situation has led to an increase in the price of epichlorohydrin. In the second half of the month, due to the completion of refinery maintenance, the load of Shandong Jinling and other units increased, easing the tight supply of epoxy propane in China.
On the demand side: In the first half of the month, there was a concentration of newly added and restarted downstream facilities, coupled with some downstream enterprises’ centralized procurement and follow-up, resulting in a slightly tight market inventory and an upward trend in the price of epoxy propane. However, in the second half of the month, the number of new orders for polyether polyols decreased, export orders were not supported enough, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and on-demand procurement was the main trend, resulting in a decline in the market price of epoxy propane.
Market forecast:
An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that currently, the market price of propylene on the raw material side has declined, providing weak support for epoxy propane. The downstream new order volume is insufficient, and the demand for epoxy propane has weakened, mainly due to rigid demand procurement. In addition, the tight supply situation in the market has eased, and enterprises have a strong willingness to sell at low prices in order to reduce profits. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly operate weakly and steadily in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.