From July 10th to 17th, 2026, the domestic toluene market rose, with the price of toluene in the Shandong region increasing from 5977.67 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.74% during the period.

During the cycle, favorable market factors were concentrated, with strong cost support and tight supply of on-site goods, jointly driving up the price of toluene. Overall, this round of price increases is driven by both cost and supply and demand. However, as prices continue to rise, the market’s incremental momentum weakens, and downstream purchases tend to be cautious. Currently, the spot market is fluctuating at a high level.
Cost aspect: Crude oil oscillation weakens, support strength continues to be insufficient
The international crude oil trend is relatively strong this cycle, and the cost support of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain is significant. The steady increase in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of upstream raw materials such as naphtha, and the production cost of toluene continues to rise. The bulk aromatics showed strong synchronicity during the night trading, although the intraday fluctuations were limited, the overall atmosphere was positive, providing sustained cost support for the spot price of toluene and becoming one of the core driving factors for this round of price increases. As of July 16th, the settlement price of the August contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.28 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September contract is $84.23 per barrel.
Supply side: Continuous tight supply and low inventory levels
Domestic toluene supply continues to be tight, and inventory remains at a low level. On the one hand, the maintenance of mainstream refinery facilities continues to have an impact, and the output of domestic sources of goods is limited; On the other hand, there is insufficient replenishment of imported resources, significant depletion of port inventory, and the tight distribution of goods in the spot market has not changed. Spot resources are scarce in major production areas such as Shandong and East China, and industry players have a strong willingness to raise prices. This further strengthens their price action power, coupled with cost benefits, supports a significant increase in toluene prices in this period.
Demand side: Urgent replenishment of inventory
Downstream demand is showing a trend of “stable demand and cautious pursuit of high demand”. Traditional fields such as coatings, inks, adhesives, etc. require stable demand to support basic procurement needs; However, after the continuous and rapid rise in toluene prices, downstream enterprises have faced increased cost pressure, and their willingness to replenish at high levels has weakened. They mainly follow up on small orders for urgent needs, and their buying sentiment tends to be cautious. The performance of oil blending and export demand is still acceptable, forming a certain marginal support for the market, but it is difficult to drive large-scale centralized procurement, and the overall trading activity is average, failing to form incremental benefits that can continuously drive the market.
Market forecast:
The short-term toluene market is likely to maintain a high range oscillation pattern. On the positive side, the support for crude oil costs remains, and the fundamentals of tight domestic supply and low inventory continue, with stable price support at the bottom; On the negative side, there is a lack of new positive stimuli after consecutive gains, and there is insufficient downstream willingness to chase higher prices. The risk of high-level pullbacks is gradually accumulating. It is expected that the pace of toluene price increase will slow down in the short term, mainly characterized by high-level consolidation and range fluctuations. It is necessary to focus on the trend of crude oil, refinery operation dynamics, and changes in downstream procurement rhythm.

1、 Price trend

Bromine prices have risen this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 27200 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 29000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.62%, which is 14.62% higher than the same period last year. On July 9th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 98.60, an increase of 0.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 59.97% from the highest point of 246.32 points during the cycle (2026-04-07), and an increase of 67.35% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
Bromine prices have been rising this week. The bromine market in Shandong region is rising and operating, with manufacturer prices referencing 28000-29500 yuan/ton. Actual transactions are weak, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The bromine industry has started production due to rainfall, resulting in a decrease in operating load and supply. In terms of demand, however, downstream industries have average demand and continue to make essential purchases.
In terms of raw materials, the overall price of domestic sulfur has been declining this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 8935.67 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 8885.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% and an increase of 285.61% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.
Prediction: The price of bromine is expected to rise in the near future. Although the upstream sulfur price has been weak recently, the supply of bromine has been affected by rainfall, and downstream purchases are mostly made on demand. Downstream is in the off-season of the industry, and the overall trading atmosphere is quiet. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices will consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend
As of July 9th, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China is 1803 yuan/ton, which is 0.55% lower than the reference average price of 1813 yuan/ton on July 1st.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
Entering July, the domestic urea market is running weakly. The urea futures market is weakening, which is bearish for the spot market. At present, the urea market has sufficient supply but weak demand. As of July 9th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1755-1810 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1760-1850 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1740-1800 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1720-1770 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1850-1880 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the current operating rate of urea enterprises is over 90%, and daily production and inventory are at a high level. In terms of demand, the current demand for urea in agriculture and industry is flat. Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, the market trading atmosphere is light, and demand needs to be released.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the recent downward trend in the domestic urea market is the main reason. At present, the urea market is oversupplied and transactions are cautious. It is expected that the domestic urea market will continue to consolidate and operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend
On July 3rd, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was 1173 yuan/ton, which was 6.63% lower than the average market price of 1256 yuan/ton on June 29th.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices continued to decline in a weak trend. The operating rate of internal level equipment has decreased, and the market supply has decreased. This week, the urea market continues to weaken, which is bearish for the ammonium sulfate market. At present, the demand for ammonium sulfate terminals is decreasing, and the market is mainly cautious. The mentality of buying up and not buying down has increased, and downstream buyers are seeking bottom purchases.
market situation
As of July 3rd, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 970-1050 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1130-1220 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market is mainly downward. At present, the market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped significantly, and the trading atmosphere in the market is not good, with demand waiting to be released. It is expected that the short-term ammonium sulfate market will continue to weaken and decline.

In June, the overall domestic calcium carbide market continued to decline, with a significant shift in price focus. The market was weak, trading was sluggish, and industry profits continued to shrink. The core reason is the weakening of downstream demand during the off-season, relatively abundant market supply, and the combination of supply and demand mismatch and multiple negative resonances, which have driven the continuous decline of calcium carbide prices since the beginning of the month without a significant rebound.

At the beginning of June, the domestic calcium carbide market quoted 2480 yuan/ton, which fell to 2380 yuan/ton on June 30th, with a cumulative decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 4.03% during the month. The decline in core production areas is even greater. As an industry price indicator, Wuhai’s mainstream price at the end of the month was 2150 yuan/ton, a drop of 350 yuan/ton from the end of May, a decrease of more than 14%, and the price is approaching the low point of the year.
The overall price trend shows a steady decline, with prices falling rapidly in the first half of the year, narrowing the decline in the middle but continuing to be weak. In the second half of the year, the market rebounded slightly, and various regions across the country followed suit. The regional price difference gradually narrowed, and the overall market trend was uniformly weak.
Demand side: Downstream continues to be weak, with low purchasing willingness
PVC is the core downstream of calcium carbide. In June, the industry entered the traditional off-season for maintenance, and multiple devices were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in overall operating rates and a significant reduction in demand for calcium carbide. At the same time, the demand for PVC terminal building materials and pipes is sluggish, resulting in a backlog of finished product inventory and pressure on corporate profits, which continues to reduce production and burden, further dragging down upstream demand for calcium carbide.
Other downstream industries such as BDO also have loose supply and demand, with low operating rates, making it difficult to hedge the gap in PVC demand decline. Downstream enterprises generally purchase on demand and purchase as needed, without centralized stocking actions, resulting in overall low market trading activity.
Supply side: High production levels maintained, relatively abundant supply of goods
Compared to weak demand, the overall supply of calcium carbide was abundant in June. Although some companies have slightly reduced production due to losses, the industry’s operating base is relatively high, and the domestic calcium carbide furnace opening rate still reached 65.94% in the latter half of the year. Against the backdrop of a significant decline in demand, there is an overall oversupply of goods in the market, highlighting the pressure of supply and demand.
The continuous release of newly added production capacity in the early stage, the overall production capacity of the industry is sufficient, the export supply of supporting equipment has increased, and the market circulation supply is abundant, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and continuously suppressing the price of calcium carbide.
The new version of hazardous chemical safety regulations was implemented in June, and transportation supervision was significantly tightened, resulting in a contraction of market capacity and an increase in logistics costs. On the one hand, it continues to squeeze corporate profits, and on the other hand, it exacerbates the mismatch between regional supply and demand, hinders the flow of goods, further weakens market sentiment, and promotes the downward trend of the market.
From the perspective of Business Society, the weak pattern of the short-term calcium carbide market is difficult to change. In July, the PVC industry will experience a peak in centralized maintenance, and downstream demand will continue to weaken. However, there is currently no large-scale reduction plan for calcium carbide supply, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will continue, with prices likely to be under pressure. In the medium to long term, the industry is in a stage of adjustment characterized by overcapacity and weak demand. It needs to wait for downstream equipment to resume production and terminal demand to recover in order to repair the market. In the short term, the industry will maintain a low profit and weak oscillation operating trend.

The price of phthalic anhydride dropped in June

As of June 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8200 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 5.57% compared to the price of 8683.33 yuan/ton on June 1st. The US Iran agreement was reached, resulting in a significant drop in crude oil prices, which in turn led to a decrease in downstream benzene prices and costs. In addition, downstream demand for plasticizers collapsed during the off-season, leading to a dual bearish trend. Both ortho phthalic anhydride and naphthalene phthalic anhydride fell, causing a volatile decline in the domestic phthalic anhydride market in June.
The phthalic anhydride market weakened and fell in June
The US and Iran reached an agreement, causing a sharp drop in international oil prices. The cost of crude oil → xylene → ortho benzene was transmitted, and Sinopec lowered the listing price of ortho xylene. The cost of ortho phthalic anhydride also decreased, and industrial naphthalene weakened simultaneously; DOP、 The two downstream industries of unsaturated resin are synchronously in the off-season, and the willingness of factories to replenish inventory is insufficient. Only about 50% of the production started in June, and the market transactions are sluggish; The neighboring method and naphthalene phthalic anhydride both fell simultaneously, with neighboring method continuing to suffer losses and naphthalene method experiencing a significant reduction in profits. The price center of gravity shifted downwards, reaching a stage low at the end of the month.
The cost support of phthalic anhydride has decreased
After the easing of the US Iran conflict, international crude oil prices fluctuated downwards, directly transmitted to the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain: in June, the price of ortho xylene fell to 8200 yuan/ton, raw material prices dropped significantly, and the cost of phthalic anhydride decreased. Industrial naphthalene is weakening synchronously with the chemical industry, and the focus of raw materials is shifting downwards; The cost of the naphthalene method route is independent of crude oil, and the profit is lucrative. However, in June, with the decline in phthalic anhydride prices, the gross profit decreased significantly, maintaining a small profit margin. The downward pressure of naphthalene method phthalic anhydride is limited.
Low level supply of phthalic anhydride
On the supply side, due to severe losses, the enthusiasm of neighboring phthalic anhydride enterprises to start production is low, and some units operate or shut down at low loads for a long time. The overall operating rate of the industry is about 50%; Although naphthalene phthalic anhydride still has a meager profit, weak downstream demand has dragged down shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in equipment load and a slight decline in production. The overall factory inventory and port inventory remain low, with no large-scale accumulation of inventory; Downstream procurement is shrinking, and there is a relative surplus of spot goods in circulation.
Weak demand for phthalic anhydride
The traditional off-season in the downstream plasticizer industry has reduced production to 50%; There has been no substantial improvement in demand for terminal real estate, building materials, and other fields. Downstream product factories adopt a “buy as you go, zero stock” approach and do not lock up raw materials in advance. They are extremely resistant to high prices of phthalic anhydride, and downstream demand for phthalic anhydride is insufficient. In addition, the continuous decline in downstream DO finished products has suppressed the decline in phthalic anhydride purchase prices. After the resumption of navigation in the strait, the international market price of phthalic anhydride fell, and China’s phthalic anhydride export orders contracted. The pressure of phthalic anhydride surplus increased, and the support for phthalic anhydride’s rise weakened.
post-market forecast
The data analyst for phthalic anhydride products at Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, on the cost side, crude oil and ortho xylene have significantly decreased, and the bottom support for phthalic anhydride costs has weakened, increasing downward pressure; Demand side: The traditional off-season for PVC soft products continues in July, making it difficult for DOP production to recover, and the demand for phthalic anhydride continues to be under pressure. Overall, it is expected that the phthalic anhydride market will experience weak fluctuations and a downward trend in the future.

This week, the styrene market experienced a weak decline, with an average price of 7870 yuan/ton on June 22 and 7490 yuan/ton on June 26, a decrease of 1.83% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 8.26%.
Macro: On June 25th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.92 per barrel, an increase of $1.58 or 2.2%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September was $75.50 per barrel, an increase of $1.63 or 2.2%.

Cost wise: The price of pure benzene has weakened and fallen. The geopolitical premium has fallen, oil prices continue to decline, and chemical costs have collapsed. At the same time, the market lacks confidence in the demand side, and the market sentiment tends to be pessimistic. Although there is still an expectation of destocking in the supply and demand of pure benzene in June. However, the early maintenance equipment in overseas markets has returned, and the tight supply situation has eased to some extent. However, some non integrated equipment varieties have fallen into losses, and negative demand feedback continues to drag down market sentiment.
Supply and demand side: Large scale maintenance facilities in China have been restarted one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded from a low level, with the operating rate increasing to around 70%. Terminal demand has entered the off-season, downstream finished product inventory digestion is slow, and the main downstream ABS and EPS production may decline, resulting in a weak overall supply and demand pattern.
Styrene external market: On June 25th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region fell by $15/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $985-995/ton. The closing price of CFR China is 970-980 US dollars per ton.
Market forecast: Geopolitical premium will fall, costs will decrease, and styrene supply will tend to be loose. It is expected that styrene will have a weak and volatile trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

On June 18th, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was 1463 yuan/ton, which was 2.66% lower than the average market price of 1503 yuan/ton on June 12th.
2、 Market analysis
supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market has shown divergent trends, with coking grade ammonium sulfate prices slightly rising and domestic grade ammonium sulfate continuing to decline. The operating rate of internal level equipment has decreased, and the market supply has decreased. This week, the international urea market weakened, which indirectly bearish the ammonium sulfate market. At present, the demand for ammonium sulfate in domestic and international markets is weak, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. The export market needs to be released.
market situation
As of June 18th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1100 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1410-1470 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market is mainly downward. At present, the market is dominated by negative factors, with a light trading atmosphere and a poor international urea market. It is expected that the short-term ammonium sulfate market will be weak and volatile.

The domestic ethanol price has dropped to 5639 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.18% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 2.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.27%. The maintenance season runs parallel to the off-season of demand, and the supply-demand game in the ethanol industry continues. Ethanol factories in some regions have entered the maintenance season, leading to a temporary decrease in supply, which helps alleviate the current inventory pressure; However, at the same time, some downstream demand entered the off-season synchronously, and related devices also had shutdown plans, especially the demand for Baijiu continued to weaken. The short-term trend of ethanol market between regions will vary slightly.

On the cost side, corn prices are under significant pressure. On the one hand, wheat has become the main substitute for feed due to its price difference and nutritional advantages, while expired rice also provides a low-cost option; On the other hand, imported corn and barley serve as supplementary food sources, jointly occupying the feeding space of corn. Affected by this, the demand for corn is unlikely to significantly improve in the short term, and it is expected that the overall performance of the corn market will remain weak. The cost of ethanol is influenced by negative factors.
From the supply side, it is difficult to fundamentally improve the overall situation of oversupply in the ethanol industry in the short term. Affected by the factory entering the maintenance season and the gradual shutdown of equipment, the supply side has formed favorable support, and the short-term ethanol price in Northeast China is expected to remain stable. Negative factors affecting the ethanol supply side.
On the demand side, downstream side: The restart of the chemical ethyl acetate Yankuang plant failed, the Zhuhai Qianxin plant shut down, and other chemical urgent needs procurement. Demand for Baijiu declined. Downstream demand has shown weak performance. The demand for ethanol is influenced by negative factors.
In the future forecast, the Northeast region will enter a maintenance period, and terminal demand will continue to decline. The off-season demand will continue to affect the transaction price of ethanol. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the ethanol market may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend
On June 5th, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was 1503 yuan/ton, which was 5.05% lower than the average market price of 1583 yuan/ton on June 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market continued its weak trend and fell mainly. At the beginning of the week, the price of ammonium sulfate stabilized after falling. This week, the international urea market weakened, which indirectly bearish the ammonium sulfate market. The operating rate of internal level equipment has decreased this week, resulting in a decrease in market supply. At present, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market is weakening, the terminal demand is limited, and the export market is not good. Due to the previous continuous price increases, downstream procurement has become more cautious.
market situation
As of June 5th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1040 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong region is around 1430-1510 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market is mainly downward. Due to the decrease in market transactions and the negative impact on international urea, ammonium sulfate is currently in a high position to compensate for the decline. It is expected that the short-term ammonium sulfate market will be weak and volatile.